Government Partisanship, Elections, and the Stock Market: Examining American and British Stock Returns, 1930–2000

We construct a model of speculative trading to examine how the mean and volatility of stock prices is affected both by government partisanship and by traders' expectations of electoral victory by the right-wing or left-wing party. Our model predicts that rational expectations of higher inflation under left-wing administrations lowers the volume of stocks traded in the stock market. The decline in trading volume leads to a decrease in the mean and volatility of stock prices not only during the incumbency of left-wing governments, but also when traders expect the left-wing party to win elections. Conversely, expectation of lower inflation under right-wing administrations leads to higher trading volume. This leads to an increase in the mean and volatility of stock prices during the tenure of right-wing governments and when traders anticipate the right-wing party to win elections. Daily and monthly data from U.S. and British equity markets between 1930 and 2000 statistically corroborate the predictions from our formal model.     

Bodo ethnic self-rule and persistent violence in Assam: A failed case of multinational federalism in India

Indian federalism has been credited in the literature on comparative federalism for having successfully resolved many of its ethnic conflicts (in a country of immense ethnic diversity) since 1956 by conceding varied forms of statehood. In most cases, the resolution of ethnic conflict has entailed self-determination for ethno-nationalist groups. There are however cases when the experiment has failed and the institutional arrangements for recognition of ethnic self-determination have given birth to more conflicts and persistent violence. In this article, we argue that the Bodoland Territorial Authority (created in 2003) in Assam is a failed case of multinational federalism in India. We argue that the case of Bodoland illustrates the limits of territorial management when groups are intermixed and highlight the need for power sharing in government and/or non-territorial representation as a better method for managing ethnic conflict in such cases.     

Narendra Modi’s Pakistan Policy: A Case of Old Wine in Old Bottles

This article examines India’s policy towards Pakistan since Narendra Modi became prime minister. At certain times, India has engaged in talks with Pakistan on various bilateral issues. At other times, it has adopted a hardline approach and canceled talks, stating that Pakistan had not demonstrated any sincerity in wanting to end cross-border terrorism against India. Modi’s critics have described his ‘on–off’ talks policy on Pakistan as flawed, confused and visionless. Is Modi’s Pakistan policy riddled with inconsistencies? Why has he not displayed the same pragmatism that is evident in his other diplomatic engagements when it comes to Pakistan? What explains his hardline approach? This paper argues that reconciliation with Pakistan remains a challenge due to persistent issues that adversely affect ties, namely the Pakistan army’s influence over the country’s foreign policy and meager bilateral economic ties. Expectations of a breakthrough in relations under the circumstances appear bleak. From the perspective of the Modi administration, adopting a cautious approach and maintaining a tough line, i.e. calibrating talks with action on cross-border terrorism by Islamabad, appears to be the more pragmatic option in the short term.     

Can financial development enhance transparency?

A substantial strand of literature unambiguously established the importance of financial development for economic growth. Relatively less attention has been paid to the impact that financial development of a country can have on important development outcomes like transparency. As established by existing research, strong financial institutions in a country would imply an improved and transparent banking system, better corporate governance, ease of accessing credit, greater availability of information and best practices in investment protection. All these should theoretically promise a more transparent economic system. Our empirical findings confirm this. Using several estimation strategies, our results confirm that greater financial development enhances transparency.     

Reviews

Manuel de Politique Musulmane. Editions Bossard, 43 Rue Madame Paris. 1925.

The Heart of Aryavarta. By the Earl of Ronaldshay, P.C., G.C.S.I., G.C.I.E. Constable and Company Ltd. 14s.

Through Khiva to Golden Samarkand. By Ella R. Christie. Seeley, Service. 21s.

The People of the Steppes. By Ralph Fox. Twelve illustrations and map. Constable and Co. 1925. Pp. 246. 8s. 6d.

A Thousand Years of the Tartars. By E. H. Parker, Professor of Chinese in the Victoria University, Manchester. Fourth Edition. Kegan Paul, Trench, Trubner and Co. 1924.

Mosul and its Minorities. By Harry Charles Luke. Martin Hopkinson. 10s. 6d.

With Lawrence in Arabia. By Lowell Thomas. Hutchinson. 21s.

Through Inner Deserts to Medina. By the Countess Malmignati. Philip Allan and Co. 10s. 6d.

The Lost Oases. By A. M. Hassanein Bey. Messrs. Thornton Butterworth, Ltd. 21s.

1. The Early History of Bengal. By the late F. J. Monahan, Indian Civil Servant. Oxford University Press. 1925.

2. The Early History of Bengal. By R. C. Mazumdar, Professor of History in the University of Dacca. Dacca University Bulletin No. 3. Oxford University Press. 1925.

Census of India, 1921. Vol. IV.: Baluchistan. By Major T. C. Fowle and Rai Bahadur Diwan Jamiat Rai, C.I.E.

English‐Baluchi Colloquial Dictionary. By Major George Waters Gilbertson, assisted by Gháno Khán Haddiani. Published by the Author.     

Asia-Pacific Remains The Anchor

正The Asia-Pacific region now faces another year of slowing growth, but the region will remain the anchor of global economic stability, said a UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) survey released in May. In a recent interview with Beijing Review, Amitava     

Indian federalism at the crossroads: Limits of the territorial management of ethnic conflict

ABSTRACT

This article critically examines territorial strategies adopted by the Indian state to accommodate territorially concentrated minority groups in two very recent cases: the formation of Telangana (2014) and the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) (2003). We situate both cases within the broader context of linguistic state reorganization in India since the 1950s. We argue that while the formation of states on the basis of linguistic principle was necessary given the long history of demand for linguistic states in India, it is, as Telangana and BTC clearly bear out, not sufficient to accommodate minorities. This is especially the case when, inter alia, language is: (1) appropriated by the dominant group within a state (or states) as a vehicle to perpetuate political majoritarianism, (2) supplemented by weak power-sharing arrangement, and (3) occasioned by longstanding popular perceptions of historical injustices and relative deprivation.     

Extortion,competition among states and private investment in a federation: evidence from Indian manufacturing sector

Economic Change and Restructuring - The paper argues both theoretically and empirically that incidence of extortion reduces the flow of private investment at a state in a federation. The states...     

Dissimilar twins: residue of 1947 in the twenty-first century

In this article Meenakshi Mukherjee traces the impact of the Indian partition of 1947 on the creative writing, films and intellectual life of India and Pakistan.