Analyzing the impact of terrorism on tourism in Sri Lanka

While terrorism brings fear and chaos, tourism is the epitome of peace and happiness. Sri Lanka has always attracted international tourists due to tropical climate and beautiful tourist destinations. However, terrorism and the recent debt crisis have led to chaos and economic failure; in this study, the impact of terrorism, external debt, and military expenditure on international tourism in Sri Lanka have been empirically studied to unravel the dynamics. Dynamic ARDL simulation and cumulative fourier frequency causality results highlight the presence of an inverted N-shaped association between terrorism and tourism, as well as external debt and tourism. The phenomenal results from this analysis provide essential policy suggestions for Sri Lanka for economic recovery through the promotion of international tourism.     

The Reversal of Fortune Thesis Reconsidered

Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson have claimed that the world income distribution underwent a ‘Reversal of Fortune’ from 1500 to the present, whereby formerly rich countries in what is now the developing world became poor while poor ones grew rich. We question their analysis with regard to both of their proxies for pre-modern income, namely urbanisation and population density. More specifically, an alternative measure of urbanisation with more observations generates a positive (but not significant) correlation between pre-modern and contemporary income, while a better measure of population density on arable land no longer produces a robust relationship.     

The effect of the election of prosecutors on criminal trials

We examine whether elections of public prosecutors influence the mix of cases taken to trial versus plea bargained. A theoretical model is constructed wherein voters use outcomes of the criminal justice system as a signal of prosecutors’ quality, leading to a distortion in the mix of cases taken to trial. Using data from North Carolina we test whether reelection pressures lead to (a) an increase in the number and proportion of convictions from jury trials and (b) a decrease in the average sanction obtained in both jury trials and pleas. Our empirical findings are consistent with our theoretical predictions.