Can governments use Get Out The Vote letters to solve Europe’s turnout crisis? Evidence from a field experiment

Declining levels of turnout are a problem in European elections. Are Get Out The Vote campaigns the solution to the problem? While many studies have investigated such campaigns in the US, little is known about their effect in Europe. The article presents a field experiment in which encouragement to vote in an upcoming Danish election is delivered to more than 60,000 first-time voters using direct personal letters. Eight different letters are designed, based on the calculus of voting and prospect theory. The sample is randomly divided into treatment groups or the control group. Using validated turnout, small positive effects of receiving a letter on turnout are found, with little difference across letters. The letters mostly mobilised voters with a low propensity to vote and thus increased equality in participation. In sum, while letters have some effect, they are not likely to be a panacea for solving Europe’s turnout challenges.     

Trade Measures and Climate Compliance: Institutional Interplay Between WTO and the Marrakesh Accords

This article examines the potential of trade measures to induce more climate-friendly policies, focusing on the relationship between global trade rules and the Kyoto climate regime. At the core of this interplay is the normative consistency of trade-related rules in the two regimes and any hierarchical relationship between them. The stronger clout of the WTO and its compulsory dispute settlement system suggest that issues involving competing claims would be referred to WTO bodies. Such bodies have so far been restrictive regarding the exceptions in WTO agreements to the general ban on embargoes and discrimination. The normative compatibility of the two regimes will also depend on their participatory interplay, specifically how they differentiate groups of actors as to rights and obligations. Non-members of WTO receive the least protection, and their vulnerability to climate-related trade measures is largely determined by their interdependence with states that consider employment of such measures. Among WTO members, the findings of a dispute settlement body would presumably differ depending on the status of the target under the Kyoto Protocol. A non-complier with Kyoto commitments would be more shielded than a non-party, because by joining the Kyoto regime a non-complier has exposed itself to regime-internal and less trade intrusive measures that should be exhausted first. A third dimension of interplay is linkage, or efforts to influence the regime interplay. To date there has only been moderate cross-agency coordination, but considerable attention is paid within each regime, including in the Millennium Round of trade negotiations, to the desirability of avoiding conflict between them.     

Economics,Ideology and Strategy. An Analysis of the EC-Debate in Norwegian and Danish Organizations 1961-72*

This article presents a comparative analysis of the EC-debate in Norway and Denmark preceding the referenda in 1972. The focus is on the basic economic interests involved, and how major organizations presented their arguments to protect their sectors of the economy. The theoretical point of departure is the idea of rational behavior, where actors are supposed to pursue self-interests. Special emphasis is placed on strategic considerations, because each group needed to appeal to people outside their own sector to mobilize a majority of the national vote. Ideological legitimization as well as variations in economic conditions and geographic mobility are discussed. The empirical basis is a content analysis of editorials in Norwegian and Danish organizational papers. The conclusion is that although it is important to include egoistic self-interests in order to understand the positions of various groups in the EC-debate, it is also important to include aspects beyond narrow sectorial interests. Strategic considerations led to rapprochment between traditional opponents along the left-right axis in Norway, while the same groups in Denmark, although they agreed on the EC-issue, confronted each other with respect to major economic questions.     

Can We Trust Recall-Data?*

About 15% of Norwegian voters report a different party than their actual choice when asked about voting at previous Storting elections. Even though this percentage is lower than in other countries, it nonetheless shows that recall-data do not give a correct picture of people's voting behavior. The political stability among voters is exaggerated. This will have consequences for the monthly political barometers on account of the weighing procedures used. This article discusses different explanations for erroneous recall; incorrect remembering on the one hand and a wish for consistent behavior on the other. The consistency model appears to be most relevant. In this connection the distinction between stable and unstable voters is important.     

Leeway for Personal Impact: The Case of Foreign-Policy Making in Norway*

Setting their focus on the role of decision-makers at intermediate and higher levels of a country's foreign policy administration, the authors analyze contextual factors that may determine the impact of decision-makers' personal characteristics on foreign policy. The article highlights the dynamics of these factors in the case of Norwegian foreign policy-making in the mid- and late 1970s. Over time, there has been a general relaxation of formal bureaucratic constraints, including the use of internally recruited political appointment, compounded by the growth of non-traditional international public affairs. The Foreign Minister's leadership style appears to have served as a catalyst to create an environment in which middle-to-upper level administrative leaders and political appointees have had greater opportunity than previously to garner influence and make it felt.     

The Accuracy of Recalled Previous Voting: Evidence from Norwegian Election Study Panels

Data on individual variations from one election to the next is fundamental in the study of political behaviour, and should, ideally, be collected through panel studies in which the same people are interviewed at two or more or elections. This method is, however, costly and time consuming, and most analyses of this type are therefore based on recall data, in which the voters report their choices in the current election and also in previous elections. The accuracy of recall data is discussed, based on data from the Norwegian Programme of Election Research in the period 1977–97. Analyses show that one must expect, using this type of data, that about one in four voters will give incorrect information about their voting behaviour at the previous election. Erroneous recall of previous voting can be explained by variations in the voters' affiliation to the parties. Whereas stable voters who remain with the same party normally report their voting correctly, erroneous recall varies around 40 percent for party changers and rises to 70 percent among previous non-voters. There is, however, no uniform underlying pattern in erroneous recall during different periods, which implies that it is difficult to predict exactly how erroneous recall will affect the accuracy of recall data in one particular election.     

Measures for mines: approaches to impact assessment in humanitarian mine action

The ability to assess the impact of humanitarian interventions is key both for priority-setting and for maximising the quality of projects. Humanitarian mine action (hma) is a young sector, where the application of impact assessment is still in its infancy. In this article we will briefly revisit the history of impact assessment in hma, before reviewing the strengths and weaknesses of three different impact-assessment approaches: 1) the Landmine Impact Survey; 2) economic analysis; and 3) community studies. Each of the approaches has its own merits as well as its own shortcomings and the selection of one approach, or several approaches combined, needs to be informed by the particular conditions in a given setting. We argue that hma should always be based on sound impact-assessment practices, but also that it is important to encourage a general understanding of broader impact issues—as opposed to narrow output definitions—among all relevant stakeholders. In spite of considerable progress over the past few years on this issue, impact in mine action is still largely perceived as an event rather than an integral part of the process and specialised units responsible for impact assessment isolate this activity from day-to-day field management.