The Winter of Discontent Thirty Years On

Thirty years on, and in the context of our own crisis, it is perhaps useful to take stock of the last Winter of Discontent. The industrial strife that beset the Callaghan government in the winter of 1978/79 was seen at the time as a key factor in Labour's defeat in the general election of 1979; but its legacy is considerable and its significance enduring. These four themed essays come from a public seminar at the British Academy to mark the thirtieth anniversary of the Winter of Discontent. Colin Hay argues that the Winter of Discontent was, in key respects, a manufactured crisis lived, experienced and responded to through a very particular construction of the events that is difficult to reconcile with the evidence itself. Reponses by Lords Baker, Lea and Lipsey follow and the section concludes with a transcribed and edited version of the lively discussion which ensued.     

The Effect of Police Employment on Crime

The effects of police employment on index violent trim rates and index property crime rates are studied using a maximum likelihood technique to estimate two-wave multivariate panel models. Separate analyses are carried out for a sample of 252 U.S. suburbs and for a sample of 269 U.S. cities for the years 1960 and 1970.     

COLLECTIVE SECURITY AND FATAL FIREARM ACCIDENTS*

This paper offers an explanation for rates of fatal firearm accidents in terms of confidence in collectively provided justice and security. It describes the collective security model and presents an analysis of time-series data from Detroit which supports it: accidental gunshot deaths varied positively with violent crime and civil disturbances and negatively with the allocation of resources to the police. Finally, it discusses some implications for research design and social policy.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF SELF‐CONTROL: EXAMINING SELF‐CONTROL THEORY'S STABILITY THESIS*

Research on self‐control theory consistently supports its central prediction that low self‐control significantly affects crime. The theory includes other predictions, however, that have received far less scrutiny. Among these is the argument that self‐control is developed early in childhood and that individual differences emerging then persist over time. The purpose of this study is to provide a rigorous test of the stability thesis. First, we examine the extent of stability and change in self‐control for a national sample of U.S. children age 7 to age 15. Second, we consider whether parenting continues to affect self‐control during adolescence—a period after the point at which self‐control differences should be fixed. The analysis revealed strong absolute and relative stability of self‐control for more than 80 percent of the sample, and this stability emerged in large part as early as age 7. Contradicting the theory was a smaller portion of respondents (roughly 16 percent) who experienced substantial absolute and relative changes in self‐control even after the age of 10. Moreover, parental socialization continued to affect self‐control during adolescence, even after accounting for both prior self‐control and exposure to parental socialization.     

PLANNING AND CONTROLLING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE IN THE UK, PART I: THE TREASURY'S PUBLIC EXPEIWITURE SURVEY

The Treasury's annual survey of public expenditure is the central element in planning and controlling public expenditure. While its purpose remains similar to that in the 1970s, the principles governing its preparation, the methodology employed and the conduct of negotiations between the Treasury and the departments have changed with successive attempts to control both the total and programme allocations more effectively. This article examines and explains the process of preparing the survey, through the main stages from the decisions about the size of total public spending in the context of the government's macroeconomic strategy to the announcement in the Autumn Statement of the planned totals and allocations for the next three years and finally to the publication in February of the departmental Public Expenditure Chapters. Part I1 [Summer issue] analyses the effects and effectiveness of the survey processes, and discusses whose interests have been best served.