Testing the Reciprocal Effects of Campaign Participation

Questions persist regarding the robustness of cross-sectional estimates of effects of variables that are themselves endogenous to the participation process. On one hand, the consequences of working on a campaign have interesting implications for democratic society. Less benign, however, is the possibility that failure to control for reciprocal processes leads to biased estimates of the causes of campaign participation. I use a panel of Democratic and Republican contributors interviewed following each of the past three presidential elections (1996, 2000, and 2004) to explore the relationships between campaign participation and three variables typically parameterized as predictors of participation: receiving a contact, ideological extremism, and strength of party identification. The effect of strength of party identification on campaign participation proves robust; however, I find that nearly all of the associations between contacts and participation and ideological extremism and participation appear to extend from, not into, participation and past participation.

South Africa's financial and economic prospects for the next five years

South African dominance of trade in Africa as well as its position as a regional hegemon was entrenched by the Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) with the European Union in 1999. South Africa's full-blown integration into the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) formation since 2011 has brought new dynamics, however, as South Africa now has a marked BRICS orientation. Although the European Union (EU) as a bloc is still South Africa's largest trading partner, China has become South Africa's largest single-country trading partner. The question arises as to whether this new found loyalty makes sense in terms of South Africa's regional position and its trade prospects. Against the background of more intra-industry trade with the EU and the new and growing inter-industry trade with the other BRICS economies, South Africa's trade share of African trade has been in relative decline. This study uses an international political economy framework to analyse South African trade hegemony based on the TDCA and the possible effects of a shift towards BRICS. The conclusion is that, although the shift towards BRICS can politically be justified, economically it should not be at the expense of the benefits of the more advantageous relationship with the EU.     

Science and the media in South Africa: Reflecting a ‘dirty mirror’

Abstract

The public understanding of science is vital in any society, to counter pseudoscientific claims and quackery. The relationship between scientists and the media (the latter often the only channel through which scientific findings reach the public) was studied within a South African framework. An empirical survey was conducted by means of a comprehensive questionnaire sent to 740 South African scientists and researchers and 360 journalists. Because the media are important in the public understanding of science, the survey tried to establish the depth of and possible reasons for distrust between the two professions and what structures could be put in place to overcome this. This study found some significant differences in the views of scientists and journalists about the role of science in society, how it could be communicated to the public, and the reasons for this dichotomy. Finally, proposals to bridge the gap between scientists and the media are made: the media should give serious attention to raise the standards of science reporting by establishing science desks headed by properly trained science editors and well-trained science reporters. On the other hand, scientists should be trained to communicate better with the media and, therefore, the public.     

Political Awareness and Electoral Campaigns: Maximum Effects for Minimum Citizens?

Revisionists demonstrate campaigns mobilize, educate, activate predispositions, and change minds. Attention has turned from the “minimum effects” thesis to questions about the conditions under which campaigns matter and questions about which types of people are susceptible to campaign effects. Focusing on whether campaign effects are mediated by chronic political awareness, I find that current scholarship on this question is mixed. Some find that campaigns affect the politically unaware most, some find bigger effects among more aware citizens, and some find similar effects across the awareness distribution. Noting the possibility that awareness mediates different types of campaign effects differently (e.g. priming, persuasion, or learning), Zaller’s Receive–Accept-Sample framework is consulted to develop expectations. I test the RAS generated predictions using the 2004 National Annenberg Election Survey pre/post panel. The results support the theory that awareness mediates different campaign effects differently.     

Campaign Activism and the Spatial Model: Getting Beyond Extremism to Explain Policy Motivated Participation

To date, most models of policy motivated campaign participation claim participation derives from the intensity or extremism of one’s policy views. I approach the policy motivation differently, generalizing the logic of proximity voting to model policy motivated campaign participation. Modeling participation as a function of extremism captures the activist’s policy preferences and suggests those with strong preferences participate more, while modeling participation as a function of proximity captures both the activist’s policy preferences and the relevant comparisons to the positions of the candidates. Noting the two alternatives lead to different predictions about variation in individual participation beyond turnout (e.g. campaign activities), I find consistent support for a proximity model of activism and I find no independent effect of extremism once I control for proximity. Moreover, the proximity model’s predictions about ideological responsiveness to changes in the candidates’ locations over time prove robust, while predictions based solely on ideological extremism do not.

Which Party Represents My Group? The Group Foundations of Partisan Choice and Polarization

Political Behavior - While groups have been central to thinking about partisan identity and choices, there has been surprisingly little attention paid to the role of perceptions of the group...     

Does Public Support Help Democracy Survive?

It is widely believed that democracy requires public support to survive. The empirical evidence for this hypothesis is weak, however, with existing tests resting on small cross-sectional samples and producing contradictory results. The underlying problem is that survey measures of support for democracy are fragmented across time, space, and different survey questions. In response, this article uses a Bayesian latent variable model to estimate a smooth country-year panel of democratic support for 135 countries and up to 29 years. The article then demonstrates a positive effect of support on subsequent democratic change, while adjusting for the possible confounding effects of prior levels of democracy and unobservable time-invariant factors. Support is, moreover, more robustly linked with the endurance of democracy than its emergence in the first place. As Lipset (1959) and Easton (1965) hypothesized over 50 years ago, public support does indeed help democracy survive.     

Voter Confidence and the Election-Day Voting Experience

The scholarly literature provides mixed guidance on the question of whether DREs or optical scan systems inspire greater confidence. We bring new evidence to bear on the debate using a unique exit poll and a nationally representative survey, both of which examine a wide range of voting experiences. Having detailed information about voting experiences enables us to investigate both the direct effects of DRE/optical scan voting and the indirect effects through voting experiences. Doing so reveals new information about the relationships between voting technology, voting experiences, and voter confidence. Indeed, the type of machine one uses has very different direct and indirect effects on voter confidence—a finding that may help explain scholarly disagreement over voters’ reactions to different types of voting machines.     

Sailing Alone: Teenage Autonomy and Regimes of Childhood

Should society intervene to prevent the risky behavior of precocious teenagers even if it would be impermissible to intervene with adults who engage in the same risky behavior? The problem is well illustrated by the legal case of the 13-year-old Dutch girl Laura Dekker, who set out in 2009 to become the youngest person ever to sail around the world alone, succeeding in January 2012. In this paper we use her case as a point of entry for discussing the fundamental question of how to demarcate childhood from adulthood. After summarizing the case, we identify a ??demarcation dilemma?? that frames much of the public and expert debate. On the one hand, it seems morally imperative ??to treat like alike??, which means that both children and adults should be allowed to undertake all actions for which they have the relevant competences. On the other hand, requiring proportional treatment of children and adults seems to neglect the special nature of childhood as a distinct stage in life that ends at a specific age. We introduce the notion of a ??regime of childhood?? to deal with this problem. This regime includes several dimensions, including the limited liability for children, the supervisory responsibilities of parents, the role of age-based thresholds, and the overarching purpose of childhood as a context for developing autonomy. We argue that, all things considered, there are good reasons not to shift to a regime that offers individual children the option of qualifying for adulthood on the basis of age-neutral criteria.