Panel on the Economic and Political Consequences of Chernobyl'

This article summarizes a discussion by a panel of leading experts on Soviet energy analyzing the consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl' nuclear plant in the Ukraine on April 26, 1986.

The near-term economic costs associated with clean-up, relocation, and compensating for losses to electricity supplies are significant but manageable. The longer-term effects will focus on likely modifications in Soviet strategies for the nuclear industry, which may shift emphasis back towards conventional fuels and conservation.

The political consequences were managed fairly well by the leadership. Consistent with Secretary Gorbachev's policy of glasnost' (openness) more information has been available on this event than was the case in previous analogous situations. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 723.     

The Aftermath of the 19th Conference of the CPSU: A Soviet Economy Roundtable

The aftermath of the 19th Conference of the Communist Party, held in Moscow from June 28 to July 1, 1988, is analyzed by eight Western observers. The discussion covers impacts of the Conference on Soviet society and abroad, General Secretary Gorbachev's speech at the Central Committee Plenum on July 29, 1988, and reviews results of his policies since 1985. It proceeds to look at the current transitional period of Soviet reforms, including the formation of new enterprise forms and horizontal links in the economy. Finally, the discussants view prospects for political and economic development in the future. journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 113.     

Strategic Horizons: Futures Forecasting and the British Intelligence Community

The article deals with the role and benefit added by the use of horizon scanning in intelligence analysis in the UK. It asserts that horizon scanning as a technique, while not entirely akin to the tradecraft of intelligence analysis, has much to contribute to its success. Specifically, is asserts that a horizon scanning function in the JIO and the Cabinet Office should be made permanent, as bureaucratic tumult in the wake of the 2010 SDSR have left the capability un-staffed, though still established. Within the UK intelligence community, such an organization may have positive roles to play in the processes of challenge, the setting of collection priorities, and overall long-term UK intelligence assessment at the national level.     

Factionalism, Centralism, and Federalism in Argentina

Along with their renewed attention to the other principles andprovisions of Argentina's 137-year-old constitution, many Argentineleaders since 1983 have looked to federalism as one way to reducethe excessively centralized state that is often blamed for thecountry's authoritarian governments since 1930 and worseningeconomic inefficiency since the 1940s. They have not advocateda return to the factional period of 1810 to 1880, when federalistideas first were proposed amidst violent struggles between variousprovinces. Rather, they have drawn on those ideas and developedproposals about how federalism could help the nation alter somepolitical structures built from 1880 through 1982. Reversinga century of centralism has begun with difficulty, but the currentproblems faced by the national government give the proposalsa significant chance of being implemented.     

Excretion of Delta9-tetrahydrocannabinol in sweat

The aims of this study were: first, to determine the accuracy of the Cameriere method for assessing chronological age in children based on the relationship between age and measurement of open apices in teeth and, second, to compare the accuracy of this method with the widely used Demirjian et al. method and with the method proposed by Willems et al. Orthopantomographs taken from white Italian, Spain and Croatian children (401 girls, 355 boys) aged between 5 and 15 years were analysed following the Cameriere, Demirjian and Willems methods. The difference between chronological and dental age was calculated for each individual and each method (residual). The accuracy of each method was assessed using the mean of the absolute values of the residuals (mean prediction error). Results showed that the Cameriere method slightly underestimated the real age of children. The median of the residuals was 0.081 years (interquartile range, IQR=0.668 years) for girls and 0.036 years for boys (interquartile range, IQR=0.732 years). The Willems method showed an overestimation of the real age of boys, with a median residual error of -0.247 years and an underestimation of the real age of girls (median residual error=0.073 years). Lastly, the Demirjian method overestimated the real age of both boys and girls, with a median residual error of -0.750 years for girls and -0.611 years for boys. The Cameriere method yielded a mean prediction error of 0.407 years for girls and 0.380 years for boys. Although the accuracy of this method was better for boys than for girls, the difference between the two mean prediction errors was not statistically significant (p=0.19). The Demirjian method was found to overestimate age for both boys and girls but the mean prediction error for girls was significantly greater than that for boys (p=0.024), and was significantly less accurate than the Cameriere method (p<0.001). The Willems method was better than that of Demirjian (p=0.0032), but was significantly less accurate than that of Cameriere (p<0.001).     

Recognition of previous eyewitness testimony from an altered interrogation protocol: Potential effects of distortions

Abstract

The effect of protocol presentation on witnesses’ tendency to point out errors in a transcribed version of their verbal testimony was examined in two experiments. Participants were shown a film depicting a robbery and were subsequently questioned. In the process of typing out the testimony, there were six distortions entered into the protocol. When participants were asked to check the content for approval, they either listened to the experimenter reading the protocol out aloud, or read it on their own. The results showed that witnesses who had listened to the content being read to them pointed out significantly fewer distortions, and suggest that protocol presentation may have important implications for the justice system.     

The Origins of the Soviet Oil Crisis, 1970–1985

Soviet oil production peaked in 1983 and declined in 1984, chiefly because the growth of West Siberian output has nearly stopped. The root of the problem is two decades of unbalanced policy favoring near-term payoff over long-term preparation. Exploration has been systematically neglected in favor of development, and the West Siberian oil industry has been built on too narrow a base. Despite warnings from local officials as early as 1970, this led to a first crisis in 1976-1977. Moscow responded with an emergency increase in development drilling. This approach prevented output from dropping between 1978 and 1983 but only aggravated the deep-seated imbalance, preparing the way for a new crisis in 1983-1985. The underlying causes of this near-sighted approach are analyzed and the implications for a deeper understanding of Soviet decision-making spelled out. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 721.     

The effect of maternal incarceration on adult offspring involvement in the criminal justice system

Researchers have estimated that 63 percent of incarcerated women have one or more minor children and most reported living with their children prior to incarceration (Mumola, 2000). Unfortunately, children of incarcerated parents have been a relatively invisible population in the research on the collateral consequences of incarceration. The goal of the current study was to examine the long-term effect of maternal incarceration on adult offspring involvement in the criminal justice system using data from the mother child sample of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Based on existing research, it was hypothesized that the adult offspring of incarcerated mothers would be more likely to have been convicted of a crime or to be sentenced to probation. The effect of maternal incarceration on correlates of criminal behavior in adolescence and early adulthood (e.g., negative peer influences, positive home environment) was also modeled to assess possible indirect effects. The results highlighted the direct effect of incarceration on adult offspring involvement in the criminal justice system, but parental incarceration had little association with correlates of criminal behavior.     

Developing sustainable institutions: Lessons from cross-case analysis of 24 agricultural extension programmes

The building or reform of agricultural extension institutions has received considerable attention over the past 15 years, promoted principally by the World Bank and its training and visit (T&V) approach. Many of these institutional development projects have now been completed, allowing cross-case analysis of the experiences and outcomes. Given the relatively similar objectives and institutional improvement strategies adopted, and the dissimilarities in the eventual performance and institutional vitality of the target organizations, these experiences provide a useful set of cases in which to examine the dynamics of institutions performance and sustainability. This article examines 24 completed extension development projects in the light of an institutional sustainability framework that defines sustainability as the ability of an institution to produce outputs that are sufficiently in demand for enough inputs to be supplied to continue production at a steady or growing rate. Findings from the application of the framework highlight the importance of internal and external stakeholder support, the importance of early success in generating support, the need for both organizational action and learning in varying degrees depending on the situation, and the need to have a coherent strategy that matches the institution's internal capabilities and external environment.     

The Requirement of an 'Express Agreement' for Joint Criminal Enterprise Liability: A Critique of Brdanin

The mode of liability known as joint criminal enterprise (JCE)has emerged in the case law of the International Criminal Tribunalfor the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) as a means of assigning criminalliability to individuals for activities carried out by a collective.As a result, the doctrine must be carefully defined so as notto allow it to extend a defendant's liability beyond the appropriatelimits of individual criminal responsibility. In this regard,a recent ICTY Trial Chamber decision in Branin held that, wherea defendant is not alleged to have participated in the physicalperpetration of the crimes charged but to have contributed insome other way to the commission of the crimes by a group, theprosecution must demonstrate that the defendant entered intoan express agreement with the physical perpetrators to committhe crimes charged. The author argues that this ‘expressagreement requirement’ is both conceptually unsound andpractically unhelpful. Conceptually, it would be inconsistentwith core principles of JCE liability to require an expressagreement between a defendant and the physical perpetratorsof crimes, at least in circumstances in which it is allegedthat there existed a structure of two or more overlapping JCEs.Moreover, because this structure allows the accused and thephysical perpetrators to be operating in two separate JCEs,they need not even share a common criminal purpose. On a practicallevel, arguably in a ‘system-criminality’ contextsuch as the one that developed in the former Yugoslavia duringthe time period in question, the organizers of criminal activityare unlikely to enter into express criminal agreements withthose who physically carry out crimes, because existing organizedhierarchies provide much more efficient mechanisms by whichleaders are able to ensure the realization of their criminalplans.