Empire and Its Alternatives

The most ferocious debates are about whether the United States should be described as imperial, but in practice other countries also try to influence other countries’ domestic policies, to propagate their visions, to exert power and to stabilize areas beyond their borders that are perceived as a source of threats. While in the 1990s the winners of globalization were seen as small open states, since the turn of the millennium big powers appear to be gaining because of their ability to project political power: the United States, but also China, Russia, India, and Brazil. This makes for a greater instability and leads to the formulation of theories of realism or neo-realism. The essay concludes with an examination of alternatives to empire and the neo-imperial vision, in particular the importance of elaboration of common or shared values in helping to build a safer and more peaceful international order.     

On economic values in policy analysis

Analyses of public policy are rooted in the economic theory of the private sector. How relevant is this approach to the public sector? Specifically, where the organization is generally viewed as a controlled variable it often exhibits the characteristics of an independent variable working to constrain the feasible solution space. An illustration of this phenomenon is discussed, using a state rehabilitation agency as the case in point. Conclusions of an analysis based mainly on maximizing the economic value of return on investment conflicted with the agency professional values of individualized client service. This external/internal value conflict led to the apparent inability of the agency to implement the study conclusions in the near term. The substance of this conflict is seen as the main problem facing many public administrators. Recognition of economic values as but one element of public agency analysis is suggested as an approach superior to sole concentration on maximization of the return on public investment. By taking a broader view, the analyst may be able to encourage more rapid implementation of his recommendations.     

Measuring Economic Integration in Developing Countries: The Case of Central America

This article builds a composite index, the Central American Integration Index (IIC-AMPI), to measure economic integration. This index utilises a robust methodology and conceptual framework. The study shows that IIC-AMPI is responsive to variable changes and resistant to outliers. The findings indicate that the Deep Integration Process initiative dominates the current integration trend, as seen in the regional average score from 2015 to 2017, aligning with Guatemala and Honduras. Nicaragua demonstrates the most consistent progress, while Panama lags behind. The evidence supports the Customs Union as Central America's future integration path, highlighting the index's ability to capture the dynamic reality of economic integration.     

Reviews

Vladimir Mau, The Political History of Economic Reform in Russia, 1985–1994 (Foreword by Lord Skidelsky; afterword by Egor Gaidar). London: Centre for Research into Communist Economies, 1996, viii + 135 pp. £9.95.

Tim McDaniel, The Agony of the Russian Idea. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996, x + 201 pp. £24.95.

John Lowenhardt, The Reincarnation of Russia. Struggling with the Legacy of Communism, 1990–1994. Harlow: Longman, 1995, xii + 238 pp. £12.99.

Jeffrey W. Hahn (ed.), Democratization in Russia: The Development of Legislative Institutions. New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1996, 328 pp., $63.95 h/b, $24.95 p/b.

Celeste A. Wallander (ed.), The Sources of Russian Foreign Policy after the Cold War. Boulder Co: Westview, 1996, xi + 233 pp., £15.50.

David Cox, Retreating from the Cold War: Germany, Russia and the Withdrawal of the Western Group of Forces, London: Macmillan, 1996, xiv + 185 pp., £35.00.

Mark Webber, The International Politics of Russia and the Successor States. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1996, xvii + 366 pp. £14.99.

Michael Kraus & Ronald D. Liebowitz (eds), Russia and Eastern Europe after Communism: The Search for New Political, Economic and Security Systems. Boulder, Co: Westview Press, 1996, xv+ 349 pp., £51.95.

Ivan T. Berend, Central and Eastern Europe, 1944–1993: Detour from Periphery to Periphery. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, xvii + 414 pp., £45.00.

Hubert Tworzecki, Parties and Politics in Post‐1989 Poland. Boulder, Co: Westview, 1996 xv + 219 pp.,

Jaroslav Krej?í & Pavel Machonin, Czechoslovakia 1918–92: A Laboratory for Social Change. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1996, xviii + 266 pp., £42.50.

Jon Elster (ed.), The Roundtable Talks and the Breakdown of Communism. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. 1996, vi + 247 pp., £31.95.

J. Eatwell, M. Ellman, M. Nuti & J. Shapiro, Transformation and Integration: Shaping the Future of Central and Eastern Europe. London: Institute for Public Policy Research, 1995, 206 pp.

D. Gross & A. Steinherr, Winds of Change—Economic Transition in Central and Western Europe. London: Longman, 1995.

Constantine Michalopoulos & David Tarr, Trade Performance and Policy in the New Independent States. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1996, vi + 30 pp.

Laurila Juhani, Finnish‐Soviet Clearing Trade and Payment System: History and Lessons. Helsinki: Bank of Finland, 1995, 144 pp.

Walter R. Iwaskiw (ed.), Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania: Country Studies. Washington, DC: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 1996, xxxix + 304 pp.

Peter Unwin, Baltic Approaches. Wilby Hall, Norwich: Michael Russell, 1996, 256 pp., £19.50.

Yegor Ligachev, Inside Gorbachev's Kremlin: The Memoirs of Yegor Ligachev. Boulder, CO: Westview, 1996, xxxix + 407 pp., £19.00.

Hillel Ticktin & Michael Cox (eds), The Ideas of Leon Trotsky. London: Porcupine Press, 1995, viii + 386 pp., £14.95.

Folke Dovring, Leninism: Political Economy as Pseudoscience, Westport,: Praeger, 1996, xi + 155 pp., £39.95.

Kevin Anderson, Lenin, Hegel, and Western Marxism: A Critical Study, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1995, xvii + 311 pp., $49.95 h/b, $15.95 p/b.

Ragnar E. Löfstedt & Gunnar Sjöstedt (eds), Environmental Aid Programmes to Eastern Europe, Aldershot: Avebury, 1996, ix+226 pp., £37.50.

Seabron Adamson, Robin Bates, Robert Laslett & Alberto Potoschnig, Energy Use, Air Pollution, and Environmental Policy in Krakow: Can Economic Incentives Really Help? Washington DC: The World Bank, 1996, 67 pp.

Alexander S. Preker & Richard G.A. Feachem, Market Mechanisms and the Health Sector in Central and Eastern Europe. Washington DC: The World Bank, 1995, 48 pp.

Adrian Room, Placenames of Russia and the Former Soviet Union. London: McFarland 1996, v + 282 pp., £52.65.

G. S. Smith, The Letters of D. S. Mirsky to P. P. Suvchinskii, 1922–31. Birmingham: Department of Russian Language and Literature, University of Birmingham, 1995, vii + 238 pp., £16.00

Nicholas Rzhevsky (ed.), An Anthology of Russian Literature from Earliest Writings to Modern Fiction: Introduction to a Culture. London: M. E. Sharpe, 1996, xiv + 587 pp.

Donald J. Raleigh (ed.), The Emperors and Empresses of Russia: Rediscovering the Romanovs. New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1996, xviii + 414 pp., $59.95 h/b, $23.95 p/b.

Maureen Perrie, Pretenders and Popular Monarchism in Early Modern Russia: The False Tsars of the Time of Troubles. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995, xvii + 269 pp. £40.00.     

The influence of individual and community-level child mortality on fertility in Egypt

Child mortality was analyzed in relation to 3 dimensions of reproductive behavior: birth intervals, additional children desired, and contraceptive use. Study data were drawn from a 1978 survey conducted in 2 predominantly rural governorates, Beheira and Kafr El-Sheikh, in lower Egypt. Within each governorate, 2 districts were selected on the basis of their distance from the capital of the governorate, agricultural output by major crops, percent of the population urban, infant mortality rate, and crude birthrate. Within each of the 4 districts, villages were randomly drawn from 3 strata: villages lacking any governmental services; villages with limited services (health center or primary school); and villages served by a combined unit center providing integrated services. A random sample of household heads was selected from household registration records of the provision office of each district. 1200 interviews were obtained from 685 households. Restriction of the sample to women with 1 or more live births, and the elimination of 13 cases with incomplete or inaccurate information, yielded 1010 cases for analysis. The basic measure of actual fertility was birth intervals. For the total sample and within each age category, cumulative fertility is higher the greater the number of child deaths. The data demonstrate a strong relationship between child mortality experience and cumulative fertility. The problem lies in interpreting such results. With some exceptions, birth intervals increased as expected with increasing parity. Women without child death experience displayed longer birth intervals than women who had not lost a child. With the single exception of the 7th parity women, all differences were statistically significant. The data fail to eliminate potential biological influences on subsequent fertility. With biological influences adequately controlled, no behavioral differences remained. Women who experienced child mortality desired greater numbers of additional children than women without child death experience. 19% of respondents were ever users of contraception, with women of low parity the least likely ever to have used contraception.     

Policy Transfer as a Form of Prospective Policy Evaluation: Challenges and Recommendations

This article focuses on policy transfer as a form of prospective policy analysis, which we define as policy makers' attempts to assess the effect of a policy or program before it is put in place. Despite a burgeoning literature on cross-national policy transfer, there has been little systematic comparison of cases to identify either common problems or potential strategies in the practice of policy transfer. This article sets forth a rational model of policy transfer and examines, in light of that model, case studies of cross-national policy transfer spanning different policy domains. Taking into account the constraints faced by policy makers, we relax standard rational decision-making criteria and make recommendations for improving the process of policy transfer as a form of prospective policy evaluation.