Fraud: The Characteristic Crime of the Twenty-First Century

In the same way that larceny characterized much of twentieth century, fraud will likely characterize the twenty-first century. Larceny remains the most common oi all serious crimes, but fraud may overtake larceny as the crime of choice in the future, because of changes in our ownership, storage, and movement of property. Fraud involves purposely obtaining the property of another through deception, and its popularity as a crime of choice is growing. Entrusting property to the custody oi others, storing property at remote locations, and electronic movement of property are shown to be major changes in the way we treat property and increase opportunities for theft. The connection between fraud and many of the serious crimes of the twenty-first century are shown in the facts of recent cases. The motivation of thefl behind many frauds is also shown to be used to fund larger criminal objectives, such as illegal immigration and terrorism. The points of view expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Dr. Albanese is chief of the International Center at NIJ on leave from his position as professor of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.     

Urban growth in India: demographic and sociocultural prospects

The numerical and qualitative aspects of the growth of the Indians urban population are discussed with the benefit of data from the last 4 censuses. Thinkers exemplified by M.K. Gandhi believe that urban growth erodes Indian culture, while opponents argue that India's traditional way of life deserves to be obliterated. The "mechanics" of erosion of Indian culture is discussed under 5 headings: its locus, speed, direction, type of population shifts, and types of cities affected by growth. The village, which is the principal locus of Indian culture, is the locus affected by urbanization. The quantitative estimate of urbanization is extremely rapid: between 1951 and 1988, the urban population grew from 62 to 217 million. In this period rural numbers grew from 295 to 618 million. Because of the hugh natural increase of the rural population, the proportion of the urban population grew only from 17.3% to 23.3%. The direction of change is described as a process or cultural accretion or "interpenetration" rather than replacement of tradition by urban culture. Populations shifts account for a large amount of urban increase, a net rise in urban sector of 15 million/decade. While the 4 largest cities received the most immigrants, growing at 3.16%, the intermediate 6 cities with populations 1 million in 1981 grew even faster, at 3.48%. It is likely that India's population after the 1991 census is complete will be 910 million, with 27% urban.     

The R and D contract and democratic theory

The purposes of this essay are to describe how federal research and development policy has altered authority relationships and to suggest a new concept of legitimacy in accord with the changed conditions. Research and development (R and D) creates an indeterminate future. Thus, the politics of research and development incorporates an apparent contradiction : political leadership demands that jobs be done which require creative and unpredictable actions on the part of private organizations, while it also demands that contractors be held responsible for fulfilling goals efficiently, avoiding deleterious secondary consequences, and refraining from abuses of power. The paradox can be resolved by creating norms of responsibility that allow for judgments on how a job is done rather than what is to be done. New institutions for technological assessment to check on unintended consequences of projects and citizen review boards to estimate the quality of life engendered by projects may provide such norms of responsibility.     

A spatial analysis of candidate competition in dual member districts: The 1989 Chilean senatorial elections

This study uses empirical spatial theory to evaluate candidate and voter behavior in senate elections contested during the 1989 Chilean general election. The study evaluates whether senatorial candidates competing in dual member districts under Chilean d'Hondt locate near the periphery or interior of the electoral space. Spatial analyses demonstrate the Chilean senatorial electoral system is characterized by centrifugal forces. In particular, candidates of the right locate on the periphery of the space and face few incentives to pursue moderate electoral strategies. The study also characterizes bases of party and candidate support and the underlying dimensions of political competition. Spatial analysis reveals both change and continuity in the pre- and post-authoritarian electoral universes.     

Directional and proximity models of voter choice in recent US presidential elections

This note evaluates relative ability of the proximity and recently proposed directional variants of the spatial model of voter choice to account for candidate evaluations in US presidential elections contested between 1980 and 1992. I do this by estimating a statistical model that represents voter preference for a candidate as a weighted average of proximity and directional components. The analysis corroborates previous studies supporting the directional model, but illustrate that these results are sensitive to statistical specification. Alternative methodological specifications favor a mixed directional-proximity model and the traditional distance representation.     

Why do Legislators Skip Votes? Position Taking Versus Policy Influence

A legislator’s duty is to vote on legislation, yet legislators routinely miss votes. Existing studies of absenteeism have focused on the US Congress, producing useful but partial explanations. We provide added insight by examining absenteeism in American state legislatures. Our data include 2,916,471 individual votes cast by 4392 legislators from 64 legislative chambers. This rich, multistate dataset produces insights that build on and sometimes conflict with Congressional research. We use a multilevel logistic model with nested and crossed random effects to estimate the influence of variables at five different levels. In particular, we investigate whether state legislators miss unimportant votes or important votes. Contrary to what Congressional studies have found, we find that state legislators avoid participating in close or major votes, favoring reelection concerns over policy influence. We also find that state-to-state variations in legislative professionalism—in particular, the length of the session—affect absenteeism, with shorter sessions leading to higher absenteeism.