A Desultory Defense of Democracy: OAS Resolution 1080 and the Inter-American Democratic Charter

This article evaluates the effectiveness of OAS mechanisms for safeguarding democracy through multilateral diplomacy, what some scholars have dubbed the interamerican defense of democracy regime. Drawing on a range of international relations theories, this study derives competing hypotheses about member states' responses to democratic crises in the Americas. It then analyzes all instances in which a collective response—that is, an application of Resolution 1080 or the Inter-American Democratic Charter—was debated in the OAS between 1991 and 2002. Patterns of state behavior suggest that domestic politics, rather than the structural or systemic traits of the interamerican system, best explain foreign policy responses to crises of democracy in the region. The OAS record in confronting such crises is uneven.     

THE LIMITED ROLE OF CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE IN EXPLAINING AGGREGATE CRIME RATES*

Changes in the age structure are shown to have a limited impact on aggregate crime rates. Even the dramatic transformation of the age distribution accompanying the baby boom shifted crime rates by no more than 1 % per year. Projected changes in the age distribution between 1995 and 2010 will lead to slight declines in per capita crime rates. These results are at odds with recent predictions of an impending demographically driven crime wave. Such predictions have focused exclusively on a rise in juvenile crime and ignored the offsetting decreases among adults.     

The Relationship Between Crime Reporting and Police: Implications for the Use of Uniform Crime Reports

Empirical studies that use reported crime data to evaluate policies for reducing crime will understate the true effectiveness of these policies if crime reporting/recording behavior is also affected by the policies. For instance, when the size of the police force increases, changes in the perceived likelihood that a crime will be solved may lead a higher fraction of victimizations to be reported to the police. In this paper, three data sets are employed to measure the magnitude of this reporting bias. While each of these analyses is subject to individual criticisms, all of the approaches yield similar estimates. Reporting bias appears to be present but relatively small in magnitude: each additional officer is associated with an increase of roughly five Index crimes that previously would have gone unreported. Taking reporting bias into account makes the hiring of additional police substantially more attractive from a cost–benefit perspective but cannot explain the frequent inability of past studies to uncover a systematic negative relationship between the size of the police force and crime rates.     

Prison Conditions, Capital Punishment, and Deterrence

Previous research has attempted to identify a deterrent effectof capital punishment. We argue that the quality of life inprison is likely to have a greater impact on criminal behaviorthan the death penalty. Using state-level panel data coveringthe period 1950–90, we demonstrate that the death rateamong prisoners (the best available proxy for prison conditions)is negatively correlated with crime rates, consistent with deterrence.This finding is shown to be quite robust. In contrast, thereis little systematic evidence that the execution rate influencescrime rates in this time period.     

Al Qaeda Targeting Israel: Between Rhetoric and Reality

Al Qaeda leaders have often stated their desire to attack the state of Israel. But, while the intent and imperative of killing Israelis and Jews features prominently in al Qaeda rhetoric, it has rarely translated into operational attacks on the state of Israel, its citizens abroad, or Jews more generally.     

The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Teen Childbearing

After 41 consecutive years of increase, out-of-wedlock teenchildbearing unexpectedly reversed course in 1991 and by 2002was 20% below its peak. Explanations for that reversal haveproven elusive. In this paper, we present evidence that exposureto legalized abortion in utero for the cohort of women thatbecame teenagers in the 1990s is one factor contributing tothis decline. We estimate that the legalization of abortionin the 1970s changed the composition of women at risk of bearingchildren out of wedlock some 15–24 years later. This compositioneffect reduced out-of-wedlock teen birth rates by 6%, whichaccounts for roughly 25% of the observed decline in unmarriedteen birth rates over this period. It also lowered rates ofunmarried births for women aged 20–24. At the same time,it increased the number of married births to women 20–24,so that there is only a small reduction in total fertility overthe ages 15–24. The detailed information available onbirth certificates enables a more direct identification of inutero abortion exposure than prior studies looking at otheroutcomes such as crime.     

The Black-White Test Score Gap Through Third Grade

This article describes basic facts regarding the Black-Whitetest score gap over the first four years of school. Black childrenenter school substantially behind their White counterparts inreading and math, but including a small number of covariateserases the gap. Over the first four years of school, however,Blacks lose substantial ground relative to other races; averaging0.10 standard deviations per school year. By the end of thirdgrade, there is a large Black-White test score gap that cannotbe explained by observable characteristics. Blacks are fallingbehind in virtually all categories of skills tested, exceptthe most basic. None of the explanations we examine, includingsystematic differences in school quality across races, convincinglyexplain the divergent academic trajectory of Black students.