Political Partisanship and Welfare State Reform in Advanced Industrial Societies

In this article we evaluate two claims made in recent studies of the welfare states of advanced industrial societies: first, that welfare states have remained quite resilient in the face of demands for retrenchment; and second, that partisan politics have ceased to play a decisive role in their evolution. Addressing the first claim, we present analysis from a new data set on unemployment insurance and sickness benefit replacement rates for 18 countries for the years 1975–99. We find considerably more evidence of welfare retrenchment during the last two decades than do recent cross-national studies. Second, we examine the "end of partisanship" claim by estimating the effects of government partisanship on changes in income replacement rates in sickness and unemployment programs. Our results suggest that, contrary to claims that partisanship has little impact on welfare state commitments, traditional partisanship continues to have a considerable effect on welfare state entitlements in the era of retrenchment .     

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

The completion of the third molar roots has played an important role in ascertaining whether individuals may be at or over a legal threshold of age, often taken as 18 years. This study demonstrates that root apex completion in the third molar is relatively uninformative regarding the threshold of age 18 years in a sample of 1184 males, where mean age‐of‐attainment of root apex completion for third mandibular molars is about 19.4 years. This paper also considers the legal age threshold problem for cases where the third mandibular molar is not completely formed, and outlines the use of parametric models and Bayes’ factors to evaluate dental evidence in statistically appropriate ways. It attempts to resolve confusion over age‐within‐stage versus age‐of‐attainment, likelihood ratios versus other diagnostic tests, and prior odds for a case versus the prior density for an age distribution.     

A Bayesian approach to estimate skeletal age-at-death utilizing dental wear

In the forensic context, teeth are often recovered in mass disasters, armed conflicts, and mass graves associated with human rights violations. Therefore, for victim identification, techniques utilizing the dentition to estimate the first parameters of identity (e.g., age) can be critical. This analysis was undertaken to apply a Bayesian statistical method, transition analysis, based on the Gompertz-Makeham (GM) hazard model, to estimate individual ages-at-death for Balkan populations utilizing dental wear. Dental wear phases were scored following Smith's eight-phase ordinal scoring method and chart. To estimate age, probability density functions for the posterior distributions of age for each tooth phase are calculated. Transition analysis was utilized to generate a mean age-of-transition from one dental wear phase to the next. The age estimates are based on the calculated age distribution from the GM hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density region for each phase is calculated. By using a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate age, the population's age distribution is taken into account. Therefore, the age estimates are reliable for the Balkan populations, regardless of population or sex differences. The results showed that a vast amount of interpersonal variation in dental wear exists within the current sample and that this method may be most useful for classifying unknown individuals into broad age cohorts rather than small age ranges.     

Analysis of age-at-death estimation through the use of pubic symphyseal data

The question of whether age parameters derived from an American population will reliably estimate age-at-death for East European skeletal populations is important since the ability to accurately estimate an individual's age-at-death hinges on what standard is used. A reference sample of identified individuals with known ages-at-death from the regions of the Former Yugoslavia (n = 861) is used to determine the age structure of victims and serves as the prior in the Bayesian analysis. Pubic symphyseal data in the manners of Todd (Am J Phys Anthropol, 3 [1920], 285; Am J Phys Anthropol, 4 [1921], 1) and Suchey-Brooks (Am J Phys Anthropol, 80 [1986], 167) were collected for n = 296 Balkan males and females and for n = 2078 American males and females. An analysis of deviance is calculated using an improvement chi-square to test for population variation in the aging processes of American and East European populations using proportional odds probit regression. When males and females are treated separately, there is a significant association among females and the population (df = 1, chi-square likelihood ratio = 15.071, p = 0.001). New age estimates for Balkan populations are provided and are based on the calculated age distribution from the Gompertz-Makeham hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density regions for each symphyseal phase are provided.     

Income inequality,development and electoral turnout – New evidence on a burgeoning debate

In this article, we comprehensively analyze the macro-level link between income inequality and electoral turnout. First, we re-examine prior studies which affirm that higher inequality puts a drain on electoral turnout in wealthy industrialized Western countries. Second, we evaluate whether there is an association between the two concepts in a larger, more representative sample of democratic elections around the world. Third, we analyze if income inequality has a different influence on participation in the Western and non-Western countries. Controlling for nine theoretically informed covariates, we assess these claims in a multilevel framework with evidence from more than 550 democratic elections between 1970 and 2010. We find little evidence that electoral turnout is affected by income inequality. Our results also indicate that this “null” effect does not differ between the Western- and the non-Western world. However, we do find evidence that mandatory voting laws and more decisive elections boost turnout considerably.     

Acknowledging the Other Side in Negotiation

In a negotiation study, we investigated the efficacy of acknowledging an opponent's role in securing a concession made to that opponent. The study featured a face-to-face, one-shot bargaining session between a student favoring marijuana legalization and a confederate playing the role of a legalization opponent. When the confederate acknowledged the student's putative influence in producing a concession by the confederate, the student perceived the magnitude of the concession to be greater and was more likely to accept it. The student negotiators also reported that they liked the other party more following acknowledgement, and our mediational analysis suggested that enhanced interpersonal sentiments played a role in facilitating agreement. In this article, in addition to documenting these findings, we also discuss their implications, both for theoretical analyses of conflict and negotiation and for the practical problem of settling disputes.     

New formulae for estimating stature in the Balkans

Recent studies of secular change and allometry have observed differential limb proportions between the sexes, among and within populations. These studies suggest that stature prediction formulae developed from American Whites may be inappropriate for European populations. The purpose of this investigation is to present more appropriate stature prediction equations for use in the Balkans to aid present-day identifications of the victims of genocide. The reference sample totals 545 white males obtained from World War II data. The Eastern European sample totals 177 males and includes both Bosnian and Croatian victims of the recent war. Mean stature for Eastern Europeans was obtained from the literature. Results show that formulae based on Trotter and Gleser systematically underestimate stature in the Balkans. Because Eastern Europeans are taller than American Whites it is appropriate to use this as an "informative prior" that can be applied to future cases. This informative prior can be used in predictive formulae, since it is probably similar to the sample from which the Balkan forensic cases were drawn. Based on Bayes' Theorem new predictive stature formulae are presented for Eastern Europeans.