Differences in Handwritings of Schizophrenia Patients and Examination of the Change after Treatment

The aim of this study was to analyze the differences between the handwritings of schizophrenia patients and healthy subjects in addition to the changes that occurred in schizophrenia patients' handwriting in response to the treatment. The test subjects were 29 schizophrenia patients and 29 healthy individuals with the same age, gender, and dominant hand. The changes in the handwritings were examined according to 14 different parameters. On the day of admittance, the percentage of extra letters was 16.7%, and after 7–10 days of hospitalization, it rose to 33.3%. The percentage of skipped words decreased from 29.2% to 16.7% after 7–10 days of hospitalization, and to 10% after 3 weeks. The letters written by schizophrenia patients are significantly larger in height and width compared to the control group. The schizophrenia patients showed a higher incidence of crossed-out letters, adding extra words, missing punctuation as well as missing words.     

Public Attitudes to Local Government in Turkey: Research on Knowledge,Satisfaction and Complaints

This study examines prevailing characteristics of public attitudes to local government in Turkey based on the findings of a questionnaire based research project. The level of public knowledge of local government, people's satisfaction with local service provision, public views and complaints about local services are analysed. The findings show that the level of public knowledge of local government is low and people do not complain about local government services although the level of satisfaction is low. The belief that complaints would have no effect is the main reason for not complaining. The impact of sex, age, education, income, length of residence in the locality, housing tenure, and political opinion on public attitudes to local government is also assessed. Of these variables, age, education and income levels are found to be significant.     

An Evaluation of Childhood Deaths in Turkey Due to Yellow Phosphorus in Firecrackers

Yellow phosphorus (YP) is a powerful protoplasmic poison used in the manufacturing of matches, pest poisons, firecrackers, firework cracker, lights for watches, military ammunition, and agriculture fertilizer. YP is extremely flammable and toxic and easily absorbed from the gastrointestinal tract. In this study, we examined childhood deaths from 1997 to 2012 resulting from the ingestion of firecrackers. The patients ranged from 2 to 15 years of age and were admitted to the hospital with a variety of symptoms. Those that presented with nausea, vomiting, and hypotension rapidly deteriorated and entered a coma. An autopsy was performed in all but one of the 16 cases reviewed. Macroscopically, the livers had a yellowish discoloration with petechial bleeding. Histopathologic examination revealed acute toxic hepatitis. In conclusion, these firecrackers are found in corner shops throughout Turkey, may cause death in children with little warning, and should be banned to prevent further deaths.     

Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models

Curtis S. Signorino 303 Harkness Hall, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627 e-mail: curt.signorino{at}rochester.edu Robert W. Walker Department of Political Science, Center for Applied Statistics, Washington University in Saint Louis, Campus Box 1063, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130 e-mail: rww{at}wustl.edu e-mail: mbas{at}gov.harvard.edu (corresponding author) We present a simple method for estimating regressions basedon recursive extensive-form games. Our procedure, which canbe implemented in most standard statistical packages, involvessequentially estimating standard logits (or probits) in a manneranalogous to backwards induction. We demonstrate that the techniqueproduces consistent parameter estimates and show how to calculateconsistent standard errors. To illustrate the method, we replicateLeblang's (2003) study of speculative attacks by financial marketsand government responses to these attacks. Authors' note: Our thanks to Kevin Clarke, John Londregan, JeffRitter, Ahmer Tarar, and Kuzey Yilmaz for helpful discussionsconcerning this paper. A previous version was presented at the2002 Political Methodology Summer Meeting.     

Adverse selection and growth under IMF programs

The dominant approach to studying the effects of IMF programs has emphasized moral hazard, but we find that adverse selection has more impressive effects. We propose a novel strategic selection model to study the growth effects of IMF programs, which allows for the possibility of adverse selection. We find that adverse selection occurs: the countries that are most interested in participating in IMF programs are the least likely to have favorable growth outcomes. Controlling for this selection effect, we find that countries benefit from IMF programs on average in terms of higher growth rates, but that some countries benefit from participation, while others are harmed. Moral hazard predicts that long-term users of Fund resources benefit least from participating in programs, while adverse selection predicts the opposite. Contrary to previous findings, we find that IMF programs have more successful growth performance among long-term users than among short-term users.     

Natural Disasters and the Size of Nations

What is the relationship between natural disasters and country size? Is an increasing likelihood of environmental shocks linked to political integration or secessionism? We argue that natural disasters are associated with a decline in country size. This relationship arises because costs generated by disasters are higher for citizens located farther away from the political center of a country, and costs are amplified as disasters affect a larger area in a country, which in turn makes it less desirable for citizens in remote regions to remain part of a larger country. Our empirical results show that greater risks of environmental shocks are indeed associated with smaller countries, as well as smaller administrative units.     

Accounting for Extra-Dyadic Sources of International Outcomes

Leaders consider the broader international landscape when making foreign policy choices. This landscape could encompass a single external actor, the local region, or even the whole international system. Quantitative analyses of international outcomes, however, frequently do not account for this broader context. This study suggests a corrective, illustrating the value of incorporating extra-dyadic variables into analyses with dyadic and monadic outcomes. The challenge is to parsimoniously capture theoretically salient elements of the multilateral environment. We contend that a measure that links distributions of power within any k-set of relevant states to uncertainty over conflict outcomes is a promising option for two reasons. First, the measure builds from and accords with canonical theories of international politics. Second, it offers scholars a simple and flexible means to define and account for the set of states that constitute the relevant multilateral landscape. Illustrative applications linking power distributions and outcome uncertainty to alliance formation and pursuit of nuclear weapons demonstrate that extra-dyadic factors consistently influence foreign policy outcomes. This study thus shows that situating such outcomes within their broader context is both feasible and substantively important. Moreover, it contributes to recent efforts to address shortcomings of monadic and dyadic studies.