Are we witnessing a paradigm shift in the analysis of political competition?

This presidential address assesses the crisis of the Downsian model of political competition in light of the mounting evidence on policy divergence and evaluates the possibility that the new theories of politicians’ quality and political selection provide an alternative theoretical conceptualization of political competition. Based on a critical review of the literature and on the author’s works on content analysis of policy speeches, income redistribution, politicians’ quality, and political legislation cycles, this address concludes that multidimensional Downsian models of political competition are adequate to explain policy divergence and points out the serious theoretical and empirical problems that models of political selection have to solve.     

Decentralization as a constraint to Leviathan: a panel cointegration analysis

This paper extends the empirical literature about the effects of fiscal decentralization on the growth of government along three dimensions. It distinguishes between the effects of the level of decentralization from the way local governments finance their expenditures (common pool versus own resources); it uses a panel cointegration approach to separate the long run effects of decentralization from the short run dynamics; and it extends and revises the datasets generally used in these empirical analyses. The results show that the amount of revenue raised by sub-national governments leads to a long-term fall in the size of government but grants have the opposite effect. In addition, a greater decentralization of expenditure leads to greater overall spending. When the short-term is considered these influences work slowly, as the speed of adjustment towards the desired government size is relatively sluggish. In addition, in the short run, there is also a clear effect from the role of local revenue raising powers that stimulates the growth of government. These results appear robust to changes in the composition of the variables, countries and periods included the sample.     

Political competition and economic performance: evidence from the Italian regions

We verify the predictions of the theoretical literature on the relationship between political competition and economic performance, holding that, when the predominance of an ideological dimension creates a political rent, the party exploiting it selects lower quality politicians whose policy choices worsen economic performance. We examine the sample of 15 Italian Regions from 1980 to 2002 that exploits the institutional reforms of 1995 as an exogenous shock to pre-existing rents. We find evidence that higher political competition improves economic performance, through the choice of more efficiency-oriented policies.     

How defense shapes the institutional organization of states

We analyze theoretically how the provision of military services explains the vertical and horizontal fragmentation of a state. The model innovates on the previous political economy literature which views such institutional arrangements arising only as a response to internal ”technological” forces, not to strategic interactions within the state and with neighboring states. The model explains how these interactions lead communities of individuals to choose among three alternative types of institutional arrangements: 1) a union, i.e., a setting wherein both the vertical and the horizontal fragmentation of a state is minimized; 2) an alliance, whereby a state becomes more vertically fragmented by creating an upper government tier devised to take advantage of economies of scale; 3) autonomy, where horizontal fragmentation is maximized, as no merging of communities occurs and no higher government tier is created. A series of simulations of the model define the conditions under which each alternative institutional arrangement emerges in equilibrium.     

Distribution of transfers and soft budget spending behaviors: evidence from Italian regions

This paper examines empirically the strategic interactions among central and subcentral governments when incomplete information forces the subcentral government to form expectations about the amount of transfers that it will receive from the central one. The empirical analysis features a wide array of proxies for transfer expectations and uses an autoregressive modeling technique to estimate them on a sample of 20 Italian Regions for the 1995–2009 time interval. The analysis shows that transfer expectations are a quantitatively important component of local government spending, revealing evidence of soft budget spending behavior.     

A nonlinear principal component analysis of the relationship between budget rules and fiscal performance in the European Union

Tests of the relationship between budget rules and fiscal performance are metric sensitive and arbitrary in the evaluation of the stringency of the rules, in the aggregation of these evaluations in an index and in the imposition of a linearly specified model. We propose a nonlinear principal component analysis to solve these problems and evaluate the relative disciplinary power of each rule. A battery of panel regressions on 1980–2003 optimally transformed data relative to 12 EU countries confirms that, upon controlling for standard economic, political and institutional variables, more stringent rules reduce fiscal imbalances and budget size.     

A Comparative Test of Alternative Theories of the Determinants of Italian Public Deficits (1950–1998)

The paper assesses the relative explanatorypower of the Keynesian, the optimalfinance, the contingent liability andseveral public choice theories of thedeterminants of public deficits on Italian1950–1998 data. A vector error correctionmodel suggests that deficits are sensitiveto unemployment levels, interest groups'preferences (especially the elderly),government fragmentation, changes in thedegree of stringency of budget rules andexternal economic constraints. Data insteadprovide a weak or no support to thehypotheses that deficits respond to outputgrowth and electoral events. Theimplications of the optimal finance and ofthe contingent liability theory arerejected as well.     

The political legislation cycle

The economic theory of legislation holds that laws, even when they do not involve financial resources, redistribute property rights. Politicians supply legislation to groups with the highest political return. By the same logic, politicians should supply legislation when doing so has the highest political return. The dynamics of the supply of legislation should follow the pattern suggested by the political business cycle theory. We develop a model of government’s and voters’ behavior where a legislation cycle is the strategy to hold the government (coalition) together. Under certain assumptions, the model predicts that the approbation of laws should be concentrated at the end of the legislature and be positively related to the fragmentation of the government coalition. We test these restrictions on data about the supply of legislation by the Italian Parliament during legislatures from I to XIII (1948 to 2001). The empirical analysis provides strong support to the theory: a legislation cycle occurs when the conditioning phenomena that the model indicates are satisfied.     

Wars of Attrition in Italian Government Coalitions and Fiscal Performance: 1948–1994

We test the ``war of attrition'' models of fiscalperformance on the sample of Italian governments from1948 to 1994. We control for conditioning phenomena,like government stability, majority size, central bankindependence, political budget cycle and externaleconomic constraints, as well as for business cycleindicators. We improve on the standard specificationsof war of attrition models by considering the role ofthe opposition and by using ex ante measures ofcoalitions fragmentation. Once these phenomena areaccounted for, data support the implications of ourversion of the war of attrition models.