南亚区域合作联盟与东盟的经济关系：限制因素和有利因素

在新区域化逐渐形成的新背景下,以及在印度重新热衷于实行其“面向东方”政策之后,本文力图强调这样的因素和势力:它们决定了南亚和东南亚这两个新兴重要地区之间贸易与投资的一般特征与潜力。为此,本文试图主要从南亚,特别是印度的观点来研究这些问题,在它们看来,中国当然已经成为一个不容忽视的最重要势力。     

ESTIMATING INTERVENTION EFFECTS IN VARYING RISK SETTINGS: DO POLICE RAIDS REDUCE ILLEGAL DRUG DEALING AT NUISANCE BARS?*

This paper investigates the effectiveness of police raids in reducing drug dealing in and around nuisance bars. We examine effects of both dosage (number of raids) and duration (months) of the intervention, as well as the conditioning effects of land use and population characteristics in shaping the underlying risk levels of drug dealing in the target and surrounding areas. Results indicate that the police intervention suppresses levels of drug dealing during periods of active enforcement, but the effects largely disappear when the intervention is withdrawn. Also, the effects of the intervention are mediated by risk characteristics in target and surrounding areas. Target areas characterized by higher levels of risk are more resistant to intervention effects than those with lower levels of risk. Risk factors in nearby areas are also significant. Bars with high levels of risk arising from land uses in surrounding areas are easier to treat, while bars with high levels of population‐based risk in surrounding areas are harder to treat.     

Who would vote NOTA? Explaining a ‘none of the above’ choice in eight countries

In this study, we investigate who would vote ‘none of the above’ (NOTA) if this were available on the ballot paper using original data from eight European countries. In particular, we examine whether NOTA would be used by abstainers and voters to protest within the electoral process. We also test whether socioeconomic factors and specific and diffuse support for democracy and its institutions correlate with a NOTA vote. We find that having NOTA on the ballot would reduce invalid balloting more than abstention and much more than protest party voting. Our results also suggest that NOTA is related to socioeconomic status, political interest, political knowledge and distrust in political institutions and authorities, but not to broadly undemocratic attitudes. These findings have important implications for our understanding of the increasingly large amounts of abstention and invalid voting, as well as the growing distrust of political institutions, in democratic countries. They also hold lessons for electoral reformers.     

India: Searching for a Consensus by Amending the Constitution?

Two major themes have dominated the debate over India's constitutional destiny since the 1980s: parliamentary versus presidential government and federalization of its predominantly parliamentary system. India will do well to continue with its parliamentary form of government. Besides familiarity with it through British colonial experience and practice for nearly half a century, India's social diversity and fragile democracy are better served by a “collective” parliamentary/cabinet system than a “singular” presidential one. The latter may prematurely centralize the system and promote executive aggrandizement and adventurism. But India's continental diversity and complexity cannot be adequately represented solely along the parliamentary axis; they require the additional — and more vigorous — federal axis for democratic accommodation and national integration. The impact on India's parliamentary/federal system of the changing nature of the party system and premiership styles is also analyzed. Six phases of party system evolution are identified: (1) predominant party system-I (1952–1969); (2) multi-party system-I (1969–1971); (3) predominant party system-II (1971–1977); (4) two-party system (1977–1984); (5) (a stillborn) predominant party system-Ill (1984–1989); and (6) multi-party system-II (1989–to date). Three styles of prime ministerial leadership are delineated: (1) pluralist, (2) patrimonial, and (3) federal. Federal forces and features of the political system were generally accentuated when the party system was not a one-party dominant one and the prime ministerial leadership was not a patrimonial one. Some viable constitutional amendments designed to promote federalization are considered. The two particularly promising avenues of federalization that combine “responsible federalism” with “responsible parliamentary government” are those that establish a series of autonomous federal instrumentalities recommended by the Sarkaria Commission and create a President-in-Council interlocked with the Inter-Governmental Council that takes away the power of proclaiming president's rule in a state from the federal Home Ministry.     

SUBSTANCE ABUSE AND ARRESTS Variations in Pretreatment Arrests of Clients in Drug Treatment Programs

This study examines variations in pretreatment arrest patterns of clients admitted to federally funded drug treatment programs. Data from published annual reports of the Client Oriented Data Acquisition Process (CODAP)-the nationol monitoring system of drug abuse treatment-are used. Variations based on sex and age are found, but not for race. The type of drug abuse was associated with differential arrest patterns. The results suggested that cocaine and hallucinogen users were more likely to have been arrested of the ten categories of drug users considered