Why are there no more socialists or conservatives?

David Miliband (ed), Reinventing the Left, (Polity, Cambridge 1994). x. + 254 pp. ISBN 0–7456–1390–8 (pb).     

Whether one votes and how one votes

The aim of this paper is to determine if whether one votes effects the vote that is cast. Using an economic model of voting and observed voting results on nuclear power referenda, the answer is a resounding yes. Overcoming registration, turnout, and “roll off” hurdles dramatically increases the odds of voting against nuclear power. Indeed, participation swamps both economic and preference variables in the explanation of nuclear power voting outcomes. The lesson is that there is a structure to participation at the polls that should not be ignored by those interested in analyzing voting outcomes.     

作为中亚转型国家参考模式的发展型政权

苏联解体20年后,几乎所有的前共产主义国家都程度不同地完成了从计划经济向市场经济的转型.然而,仍然有些转型国家在这一进程中落在后面,其中就有前苏联的5个中亚加盟共和国.对于这些既不同于俄罗斯和东欧,更不同于西方发达国家的国家来说,实现转型没有明显的参照模式.本文的目的就是分析在东亚地区取得成功的"发展型政权"是否也能够为中亚经济体的发展提供一个参考模式.     

A recursive treatment of the hurdles to voting

In order to vote on a particular issue, voters first must leap the hurdles of registration, turnout, and roll-off. One way to think of these hurdles is along the lines of rational absention; at the time when a voter decides to register, they solve the forward looking problem of whether or not they expect to vote at all. In a sense, before they jump even one hurdle they will have decided that they will jump them all. But this formulation misses the complexity of the act itself. Voters do not even always know what issues will be on the ballot, how they will feel, and which of the ballot issues they may vote on at a later date. From this perspective, individuals start the “voting race” and drop out as dictated by their calculus en route to the final hurdle; registration, turnout, and roll-off are fraught with successive impediments consistent with a recursive empirical treatment of voting. The design and implementation of such a recursive treatment is the goal of this paper.     

EVERYONE'S DOING IT! CODES OF ETHICS AND NEW SOUTH WALES PARLIAMENTARIANS‘ PERCEPTIONS OF CORRUPTION

Abstract: Everyone is doing a code of ethics. But when can codes do good? To find out we interviewed New South Wales parliamentarians about their perceptions of corruption in 10 scenarios weighted from least to most corrupt. The cases were drawn from John Peters and Susan Welch's theory of corruption. We note similar studies in the United States and Canada. There is confusion about ethics, and we note that the episodes of corruption in the 1980s suggest ethical standards could be elevated. Perhaps the most significant conclusion is that parliamentarians come to think alike about corruption in the middle of their careers. Those who want to see ethics enhanced should aim at induction, education, and counselling within parliament. Here codes, if supported, have a role to play. Improvement will not be achieved by searching for a saintly parliamentarian. We found those most sensitive to corruption to be the least and most senior members.     

B. Reviews: general

AN INTRODUCTION TO ISLAM. By GERHARD ENDRESS. Translated by CAROLE HILLENBRAND. Edinburgh, Edinburgh University Press, 1988. ix + 293pp. H/B £29.95, P/B £9.50.

A HISTORY OF ISLAMIC SOCIETIES. By IRA M. LAPIDUS. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1988. 1002pp. £35.00.

THE GREAT POWERS AND THE MIDDLE EAST 1919–1939. Edited by URIEL DANN. (Collected Papers Series of the Dayan Centre for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University.) New York and London, Holmes and Meier Publishers, Inc., Africana Publishing Company, 1988. 434pp. $59.50 cloth.

THE RENTIER STATE. Edited by HAZEM BEBLAWI and GIACOMO LUCIANI. London, Croom Helm for Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome, 1987. 240pp.

DEVELOPMENT, ADMINISTRATION AND AID IN THE MIDDLE EAST. By GERD NONNEMAN. London and New York, Routledge, 1988. 203pp. Figures, tables. £25.00.

DOMESTIC POLITICS AND REGIONAL SECURITY: JORDAN, SYRIA AND ISRAEL. THE END OF AN ERA? By VALERIE YORKE. Aldershot, Brookfield ISA, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney, Gower. 1988. Published for the International Institute for Strategic Studies. 432pp. £35.00

THE BIRTH OF THE PALESTINIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM. By B. MORRIS. Cambridge, Cambridge U.P., 1988. 400pp. £30.00.

ETHNIZITÄT UND MACHTKONKURRENZ IN INTER‐ARABISCHEN BEZIEHUNGEN: DER SYRISCH‐IRAKISCHE KONFLIKT UNTER DEN BA'ATH‐REGIMEN. By EBERHARD KIENLE. Berlin, Verlag Das Arabische Buch, 1988. 63pp.

THE SHATT‐AL‐ARAB BOUNDARY QUESTION: A LEGAL REAPPRAISAL. By KAIYIN HOMA KAIKOBAD. Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1988. xix, 142pp. 10 maps and figures, table of legal cases. £25.00.

IRAN AND IRAQ AT WAR. By S. CHUBIN and C. TRIPP. London, I.B. Tauris, 1988. 328pp. £19.50.

THE ARAB GULF AND THE ARAB WORLD. Edited by BRIAN R. PRIDHAM. London, Croom Helm, 1988. xv, 302pp. £35.00.

THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL: RECORD AND ANALYSIS. By R.K. RAMAZANI. Charlottesville, University Press of Virginia, 1988. 256pp. $45.00.

SAUDI ARABIA IN THE OIL ERA—REGIME AND ELITES: CONFLICT AND COLLABORATION. By MORDECHAI ABIR. London, Croom Helm, 1988. xix, 247pp. £25.00.

THE IMAMATE TRADITION OF OMAN. By J.C. WILKINSON. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1987. xii, 415pp. £40.00.

MUSADDIQ, IRANIAN NATIONALISM AND OIL. Edited by JAMES A. BILL and ROGER LOUIS. Austin, University of Texas Press & London, Tauris, 1988. 358pp.

STATE, DEMOCRACY AND THE MILITARY: TURKEY IN THE 1980s. Edited by METIN HEPER and AHMET EVIN. Berlin and New York, Walter de Gruyter, 1988. 265pp.

WHAT IS TO BE DONE: THE ENLIGHTENED THINKERS AND AN ISLAMIC RENAISSANCE. By ALI SHARI'ATI. Edited and annotated by FARHANG RAJAEE; Foreword by JOHN L. ESPOSITO. Houston, Texas, Institute for Research and Islamic Studies, 1986. xix, 181pp. $25.95 (hardback), $11.95 (paperback).

THE QUR'AN IN ISLAM: ITS IMPACT AND INFLUENCE ON THE LIFE OF MUSLIMS. By ‘ALLAMAH SAYYID M.H. TABATABA'I. Translated by ASSADULLAH AD‐DHAAKIR YATE; Foreword by SEYYED HOSSEIN NASR. London and Blanco, Texas, Zahra Publications, 1987. 118pp. $14.95.

ISLAMIC SPIRITUALITY: 1. FOUNDATIONS. Edited by SEYYED HOSSEIN NASR. (World Spirituality; an Encyclopedic History of the Religious Quest, vol. 19.) London, Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1987. xxix, 450pp. 35 monochrome illustrations. £39.50.

THE MANTLE OF THE PROPHET: RELIGION AND POLITICS IN IRAN. By ROY MOTTAHEDEH. Harmondsworth, Middlesex, Peregrine Books, 1987. 418pp. £6.95.

EL PALACIO OMEYA DE AMMAN I. LA ARQUITECTURA. By ANTONIO ALMAGRO GORBEA. Madrid, Instituto Hispano‐Arabe de Cultura, 1983. 207pp., including an English and an Arabic summary (30pp., unnumbered), 63 plates, 52 figures, 39 loose‐leaf drawings.