Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach

We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.     

Institutional and management building in Sub-Saharan Africa: a symposium

In the latter half of the 20th century many factors have contributed to the decline of Africa and especially of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Severe drought and the resultant famine, the international environment of deteriorating export markets, economic and bureaucratic mismanagement, environmental damage and rural decline, political instability and civil wars are some factors often highlighted as representative causes of the decline.     

The Recursive Indian: The Significance of Complementary Ethnic Alterity in the Bolivian Tipnis March

This article explores ethnic alterity in the Bolivian Tipnis crisis, showing how claiming indigenous, Indian and colonial identities was significant in shaping government strategy and responses among ‘citified Indians’ of La Paz and El Alto and highland indigenous social movements. While Kuper claims indigeneity can distract attention from ‘real local issues’, Andean ethnicity is relational, roles assigned and reassigned in a continually shifting political theatre, where the ‘rebel Indian’ recurs historically, challenging colonial hegemony and reorienting the discussion towards issues of territorial autonomy.