Distrust of Government, the Vigilante Tradition, and Support for Capital Punishment

This study probes the interconnections among distrust of government, the historical context, and public support for the death penalty in the United States with survey data for area-identified samples of white and black respondents. Multilevel statistical analyses indicate contrary effects of government distrust on support for the death penalty for blacks and whites, fostering death penalty support among whites and diminishing it among blacks. In addition, we find that the presence of a "vigilante tradition," as indicated by a history of lynching, promotes death penalty support among whites but not blacks. Finally, contrary to Zimring's argument in The Contradictions of Capital Punishment , we find no evidence that vigilantism moderates the influence of government distrust on support for the death penalty, for either whites or blacks. Our analyses highlight the continuing influence of historical context as well as contemporary conditions in the formation of public attitudes toward criminal punishment, and they underscore the importance of attending to racial differences in the analysis of punitive attitudes.     

The Popularity Costs of Economic Crisis under Electoral Authoritarianism: Evidence from Russia

While a large literature recognizes that economic crises threaten the stability of electoral autocracies, we know relatively little about how citizens form economic perceptions and how they attribute blame for worsening conditions in these regimes. To gain traction on these questions, I exploit subnational variation in economic performance across Russia's regions during a recent downturn, combining regionally representative surveys of more than 67,000 voting‐age respondents with data on growth and unemployment. Contrary to conventional wisdom that citizens are passive consumers of propaganda, I show that they extract objective economic information from personal experience and local conditions. Moreover, I find that they give greater weight to this information where regional party dominance makes economic performance a clearer indicator of the ruling party's competence and when they believe the media are biased. These results suggest limits on illiberal regimes' ability to exploit informational asymmetries to bolster popular support during economic downturns.     

Fascism as Action through Time (Or How It Can Happen Here)

The purpose of this paper is to discuss how fascism may be identified by its actions, the stages through which a fascist rule takes power, and how to recognize it before it does so. The thesis is that a fascist takeover of a democratic government is rapid and unexpected. Its goal is a revolutionary reversal of representative government in the name of the people, while it accomplishes the opposite: a single-party corporate regime that replaces individual liberty with subtle, bureaucratic, and overt types of coercion. Rather than generate a generic definition of the many types of fascism, it is more useful to study how it affects the lives of ordinary people, the milieu out of which it develops, and what its precursors look like. Understanding fascism entails studying it from the point of view of those who lived under it and recorded their experiences, as well as from the analytic perspectives of social scientists. As Robert O. Paxton observes: “The fascist phenomenon was poorly understood at the beginning in part because it was unexpected.”¹Robert O. Paxton, “The Five Stages of Fascism,” in Fascism: Critical Concepts in Political Science, edited by Roger Griffin, vol. I (2004), Chapter 14, 305–26.View all notes We are facing the question again in 2017 with the surprise election of Donald Trump as the forty-fifth president of the United States by a minority of the popular vote and the evident support of the white nationalist milieu. Paxton proposes a five-stage theory for understanding fascism in its many varieties. A developmental sequence is proposed against which current events in the United States may be assessed.     

Modeling psychiatric patients' treatment decision making

Decision-making processes of psychiatric inpatients were assessed at admission and prior to discharge, and compared to hospital staff members using a paired comparison paradigm in which subjects chose between hypothetical antipsychotic medications. Multidimensional analyses of binary choice matrices revealed that all subjects based decisions on the risks and benefits of medication, and weighted risks and benefits in roughly equal proportions. Hospital staff demonstrated greater internal consistency in their decisions than the inpatient sample at both time points. For newly admitted inpatients, severity of psychiatric symptoms and nonverbal intelligence were related to internal consistency of decision making, and behavioral indices of medication compliance predicted relative weighting of risks and benefits. For predischarge and comparison samples, verbal intelligence and treatment preferences predicted both outcome measures. Reliance on verbal reports of decision making may be misleading when assessing competence in acutely impaired psychiatric patients.     

The association between body mass index and pulmonary thromboembolism in an autopsy population

Abstract: To evaluate the association between obesity and pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) in a forensic context, 160 autopsy cases of fatal PTE were compared with age‐ and gender‐matched controls. The mean age of cases was 66 years (range 26–98 years; M/F 74:86). The mean body mass index (BMI) of cases with PTE was 30.88 (range 14.95–79.51), which was significantly higher than in the controls (mean BMI = 25.33; range 12.49–61.84) (p < 0.0001). Comparing the group with PTE with controls showed that five (3.1%) compared to 20 (12.5%) were underweight, 39 (24.4%) compared to 67 (41.88%) were of normal weight, 49 (30.63%) compared to 43 (26.88%) were overweight, 43 (26.88%) compared to 24 (15%) were obese, and 24 (15.0%) compared to six (3.75%) were morbidly obese. In each category of above‐normal BMIs, there were significantly greater numbers in the groups with PTE: overweight (p < 0.01), obese (p < 0.001), and morbidly obese (p < 0.0001).     

An Empirical Validation Study of Popular Survey Methodologies for Sensitive Questions

When studying sensitive issues, including corruption, prejudice, and sexual behavior, researchers have increasingly relied upon indirect questioning techniques to mitigate such known problems of direct survey questions as underreporting and nonresponse. However, there have been surprisingly few empirical validation studies of these indirect techniques because the information required to verify the resulting estimates is often difficult to access. This article reports findings from the first comprehensive validation study of indirect methods. We estimate whether people voted for an anti‐abortion referendum held during the 2011 Mississippi General Election using direct questioning and three popular indirect methods: list experiment, endorsement experiment, and randomized response. We then validate these estimates against the official election outcome. While direct questioning leads to significant underestimation of sensitive votes against the referendum, indirect survey techniques yield estimates much closer to the actual vote count, with endorsement experiment and randomized response yielding the least bias.