The hazard rate of political regimes

We present a preliminary study on the stability of political regimes. In a longitudinal data set we study the effect of some observable economic and political conditions on the hazard rate of different types of political regimes. We find that economic development has a stabilizing effect in countries with democratic political institutions, but rich autocracies do not show a lower hazard rate than less developed autocracies. While the stability of autocracies is not affected by their degree of economic development, it is greatly associated with the degree of popular discontent. Widespread discontent with leaders in autocratic regimes highly increases their hazard rate. This relationship is much weaker for regimes with democratic institutions. We also find a non-monotonic time dependence pattern for the hazard rate of political regimes. Political regimes are found to be at an increasing risk of collapse during the first years, with their hazard rates reaching a peak around the fourth year.     

Study of Chilean Children’s Dental Maturation*

Abstract: In forensic science, determining a person’s chronological age has become a challenge for researchers. Determining age using dental calcification is becoming increasingly important. The objective of this study is to estimate the dental age of the children’s population in Region VIII, Chile. The sample was randomly taken from children under the care of the Faculty of Dentistry at the Universidad de Concepción in Chile. The study encompasses 159 children between 3 and 14 years of age. The dental age was determined following the Demirjian method. The Bland–Altman method was applied to establish the correlation. It was determined that the range between chronological and dental age is similar, and the degree of correlation between both ages is nearly perfect. In conclusion, the degree of correlation between the chronological and dental ages for each gender is also very good although it is slightly higher for females.     

State of the world 2017: autocratization and exclusion?

This article presents evidence of a global trend of autocratization. The most visible feature of democracy – elections – remains strong and is even improving in some places. Autocratization mainly affects non-electoral aspects of democracy such as media freedom, freedom of expression, and the rule of law, yet these in turn threaten to undermine the meaningfulness of elections. While the majority of the world’s population lives under democratic rule, 2.5 billion people were subjected to autocratization in 2017. Last year, democratic qualities were in decline in 24 countries across the world, many of which are populous such as India and the United States. This article also presents evidence testifying that men and wealthy groups tend to have a strong hold on political power in countries where 86% of the world population reside. Further, we show that political exclusion based on socio-economic status in particular is becoming increasingly severe. For instance, the wealthy have gained significantly more power in countries home to 1.9 billion of the world’s population over the past decade.     

Injuries due to deliberate violence in Chile

An analysis was made over a period of 6 months of the incidents involving deliberate violence as registered in 'Vicaria', the clinic for out-patients within the Cathedral of Santiago de Chile. A total of 236 victims of deliberate violence were observed. Men aged 15-24 years were found to be victims of deliberate violence most frequently. 'Under education' was the most frequently registered occupation for both sexes, and a large group of male victims were 'Unemployed'. 82% of the victims were men and 14% women, 1.5% were boys and 1.5% girls less than or equal to 14 years of age. None of the victims were alcohol intoxicated when arriving in the clinic. The incidents took place in streets for 81% of the male victims and 79% of the female victims, and in the majority of the cases the aggressor(s) was one (or several) police officer(s). Six percent of the female victims had been injured at home. There was no reporting of the aggressor being a relative or acquaintance. The most frequent type of violence was blunt violence from baton(s) (44%), while blunt violence without the use of instruments was reported less frequently (33%). The use of firearms was registered in 18% of the cases, and of sharp instruments, combustion, electro-shock and chain in 1.4%, 1.4%, 1.1% and 0.4% of the cases respectively. A total of 517 primary and secondary diagnoses were applied to the patients. Most of the victims (99%) had moderate or less serious lesions according to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) (score less than or equal to 2). Twenty-four percent of the victims had more than 4 lesions, and 7% more than 10 lesions. The head/neck region and the trunk were affected with equal frequency, the frequency of injuries of the head/neck region being comparable with that observed among torture victims and in contrast to the pronounced predominance of injuries of the head/neck region observed in a Danish emergency ward study of deliberate violence.