Do the polls affect elections? Some 1980 evidence

This paper finds that the relatively favorable standing of Ronald Reagan in the preelection polls helped to generate a bandwagon effect in the 1980 presidential election. The models tested here suggest that this effect was most pronounced among voters who had the weakest prior political opinions and hence were most susceptible to suggestion through the media. While the bandwagon effect that is generated is modest, after controlling for an array of other political biases, it is substantial enough to warrant further attention as the dissemination of poll results becomes an increasingly attractive news event.     

State Governance and Financial Market Integration: The Politics and Consequences of Interstate Banking Deregulation

This study examines the debates surrounding interstate bankingreform in the 1980sand the effect of geographic deregulationon the availability of credit in the stales. Deregulation doeshave a significant and positive impact on the amount of totalcommercial and industrial loans made by banks. The pro and conarguments about deregulation are then reconsidered in lightof this finding. The study concludes that states can help stimulateeconomic growth through regulatory policy, though the totalimpact is relatively small. This research also suggests thatthe veracity of policy arguments can be judged by the richnessof the institutional context in which they are grounded.     

The Mostly-Sovereign People: Sophisticated Voting and Public Opinion About Term Limits in California

This study finds that citizens are capable of purposeful issue and sophisticated voting in referendum elections. These conclusions are drawn from an analysis of the 1990 vote for term limits in California. As theory suggests, the voting public in California does not live up to some idealized picture of decision makers with complete information, but rather they rely on partisan cues and their own underlying policy preferences to help decide on a voting strategy for term limits. This suggests that voters are capable of making complex and sophisticated choices about politics. If problems exist with the current system of initiative and referendum in California, the problems are not endemic but are found in the implementation of this particular version of direct democracy.