Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

Should Abused Women's Reports of Partner Substance Abuse Be Accepted as Valid?

Current research suggests that a husband's substance abuse is correlated with severity of physical abuse and the woman's decision to leave a violent situation. Often, only the battered woman's report of abuse is available. This study compares women's reports of their partners' substance use/abuse with their partners' report using a brief measure of polydrug and alcohol abuse, the Substance Abuse Subtle Screening Inventory (SASSI) and the Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS). Data were analyzed for 25 recovery couples and 25 nonrecovery couples. The correlations for all 50 couples between the male's reported use and the female's report of her partner's use on the SASSI and the CTS were significant on all but one of the CTS scales. They ranged on SASSI from .73 to .33 and from .31 to .06 on the CTS. This suggests that the SASSI and possibly the CTS could be used as valuable tools for assessing women's reports of their partner's substance use/abuse.     

Law representing life — Reflections on Darwinian jurisprudence

A living organism is a model of the world in which it lives ... if you present an animal's body, even a new species previously unknown to science, to a knowledgeable zoologist, she should be able to read its body and tell you what kind of environment it inhabited: desert, rain forest, arctic tundra, temperate woodland or coral reef. She should be able to tell you, by reading its teeth and its guts, what it fed on. Flat, millstone teeth indicate that it was a herbivore; sharp, shearing teeth that it was a carnivore. Long intestines with complicated blind alleys indicate that it was a herbivore; short, simple guts suggest a carnivore. By reading the animal's feet, and its eyes and other sense organs, the zoologist should be able to tell how it found its food. By reading its stripes or flashes, its horns, antlers or crests, she should be able to tell something about its social and sex life.¹ My thanks to Bobbi Low who put me on to the step-parenting material, and Richard Dawkins who put me right on the science.     

A: Reviews: General

AN INTRODUCTION TO THE HADITH. By John Burton. (Islamic Surveys.) Edinburgh, Edinburgh University Press, 1994. 210 pp. £39.95 (hb); £16.95 (pb).

POLITICS, GENDER, AND THE ISLAMIC PAST: THE LEGACY OF ‘A'ISHA BINT ABI BAKR. By D. A. Spellberg. New York, Columbia University Press, 1995. 250 pp. $35.00.

MEDIEVAL ISMA'ILI HISTORY AND THOUGHT. Edited by Farhad Daftary. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1996. 331 pp. £40.00

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HAIFA: TRANSFORMATION OF AN ARAB SOCIETY, 1918–1939. By May Seikaly. London, I. B. Tauris, 1995. 284 pp. £39.50 (hb).

THE FORMATION OF MODERN SYRIA AND IRAQ. By Eliezer Tauber. London, Frank Cass, 1995. 427 pp. £30.00 (hb); £15.00 (pb).

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SECRET WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST: THE COVERT STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA, 1949–61. By Andrew Rathmell. London and New York, I. B. Tauris, 1995. 256 pp. £39.50.

LEBANON: A SHATTERED COUNTRY. By Elizabeth Picard. Translated from the French [Liban: État de discorde] by Franklin Philip. New York and London, Holmes & Meier, 1996. xii, 202 pp. £29.95.

THE ISLAMIST DILEMMA: THE POLITICAL ROLE OF ISLAMIST MOVEMENTS IN THE CONTEMPORARY ARAB WORLD. Edited by Laura Guazzone. Reading, Ithaca Press, 1995. 390 pp. £45.00.

ISLAM AND THE MYTH OF CONFRONTATION: RELIGION AND POLITICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. By Fred Halliday. London and New York, I. B. Tauris, 1996. 256 pp. £35.00 (hb); £12.95 (pb).

THE MIDDLE EAST IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER. Edited by Haifaa A. Jawad. Basingstoke, St Martins Press/Macmillan, 1994. viii, 154 pp. $35 (hb).

CONFIDENCE BUILDING AND VERIFICATION: PROSPECTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. Edited by Shai Feldman. (Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies Study, 25.) Published jointly by the Jerusalem Post and Westview Press, Boulder, 1994. 255 pp. £28.50 (hb).

CHILDREN IN THE MUSLIM MIDDLE EAST. Edited by Elizabeth Warnock Fernea. Austin, University of Texas Press, 1995. xviii, 477 pp., photographs. $22.50 (hb).

THE HISTORY OF THE MAZRU'I DYNASTY OF MOMBASA. By Al‐Amin Bin ‘Ali Al Mazru'i. Translated and annotated by J. McL. Ritchie (Union Académique Interna‐tionale/Fontes Historiae Africanae: Series Arabica XI.) Published for the British Academy by Oxford University Press, 1995. x, 182, 76 pp. £27.50 (hb).

AN INTRODUCTION TO ARAB POETICS. By Adonis. Translated from the Arabic by Catherine Cobham. London, Saqi Books, 1990. 108 pp.

ANTHOLOGY OF MODERN PALESTINIAN LITERATURE. Edited by Salma Khadra Jayyusi. New York, Columbia University Press, 1992. 744 pp. $34.95.

THE EYE OF THE MIRROR. By Liana Badr. Translated by Samira Kawar. (Arab Women Writers.) Reading, Garnet Publishing, 1995. 264 pp. £8.95 (pb).

THE GOLDEN CHARIOT. By Salwa Bakr. Translated by Dinah Manisty. (Arab Women Writers.) Reading, Garnet Publishing, 1995. 193 pp. £ 8.95 (pb).

THE STONE OF LAUGHTER. By Hoda Barakat. Translated by Sophie Bennett. (Arab Women Writers.) Reading, Garnet Publishing, 1995. 231 pp. £ 8.95 (pb).

AL‐KITAAB FII TA'ALLUM AL‐'ARABIYYA (A TEXTBOOK FOR BEGINNING ARABIC). By Kristen Brustad, Mahmoud Al‐Batal and Abbas Al‐Tonsi. Washington, DC, Georgetown University Press, 1995. Introduction 224 pp., textbook 480 pp., videotapes, cassettes.

DAS MUTAFI‐LAZISCHE. Edited by Silvia Kutscher, Johanna Mattissen and Anke Wodarg. (Arbeitspapier, Nr. 24, Neue Folge.) Köln, Institut für Sprachwissenschaft Universität zu Köln, 1995. 136 pp.

GRAMATIKA JEZYKA KRYMSKOTATARSKIEGO. By Henryk Jankowski. (Seria Jezykoznawstwo, Nr. 15.) Poznań, Uniwersytet Im. Adama Mickiewicza, 1992. xviii, 455 pp.

CULINARY CULTURES OF THE MIDDLE EAST. Edited by Richard Tapper and Sami Zubaida. London, New York, I. B. Tauris, 1994. 302 pp. £34.50 (hb).