Taiwan in the Caribbean: a case study in state de-recognition

The rich and complex recent International Political Sociology (IPS) literature on state recognition has completely ignored the process of de-recognition. The present article uses the case study of Taiwan’s efforts to preserve its ‘diplomatic allies’ in the Caribbean in order to fill this gap. Taking advantage of the IPS development of the constitutive theory of recognition, it introduces and analyses the concept of state de-recognition while emphasizing the deep contradiction between present international law principles and the political reality of national identity building as well as the de-linking of political science and international law understandings of recognition made possible by the progress of the constitutive theory. De-recognition is perceived as resulting in a hierarchical relationship between recognized and de-recognized political entities that is arbitrary and ethically questionable as it ultimately reflects the denial of the right to self-determination of peoples.     

China’s international socialization of Caribbean state-society complexes: Trinidad and Tobago as a case study

ABSTRACT

Using the case study of Trinidad and Tobago, this article analyzes the process of reciprocal international socialization that allows Beijing to construct a cognitive and normative space conducive to a new regional order in the Caribbean which should be politically friendly, economically profitable, and socially open to its government, companies, and citizens. We argue that there has been a shift in the identity of Trinidad’s state-society complex due to the influence of China’s very visible political, economic, and social conditionalities. Their impact on political elites (which is reflected in government discourse and actions) and on the society at large (as shown by interviews with 30 Trinidadian nationals) is analyzed in order to show that Type I, ‘role playing’ socialization has been reached. However, frustration within Trinidad’s society with the domestic effects of China’s economic and social conditionalities clearly limits the potential for the evolution toward the more advanced Type II socialization exemplified, in the same region, by the Soviet-Cuban relationship. This suggests that, at least in the near future, key features of the Chinese approach incompatible with its self-proclaimed win-win nature will prevent Beijing from upgrading its status to that of a decisive socializer in the Caribbean.     

Structural factors vs. regime change: Moldova's difficult quest for democracy

This article examines the state of and perspectives on democracy in the Republic of Moldova. The fall of its communist authoritarian regime in 2009 – sometimes compared to a colour revolution – went against the trend toward heavy authoritarianism now visible in the Commonwealth of Independent States. However, the regime change in Moldova does not necessarily imply a process of genuine democratic consolidation. This article argues that the future course of the Moldovan polity will be decided by structural domestic and geopolitical factors different from those that produced the regime change. Most of these structural factors do not favour democratization. Moldova's only chance to secure a genuinely democratic trajectory may therefore be dependent on its relationship with the European Union (EU). The article argues that nothing short of a process of accession to the EU can modify factors that are likely to prevent democratic consolidation. In its absence, the article contends that Moldova will either develop a Ukrainian-style hybrid regime or return to its authoritarian past.     

Social Media and Revolutionary Waves: The Case of the Arab Spring

This article argues that during the Arab Spring social media served as a tactical tool of mobilization, communication, and coordination; as an instrument of domestic and international revolutionary contagion; and, critically, as a means of enhancing pan-Arab consciousness which, in turn, was fertile soil for that contagion. These three interrelated functions are best analyzed using a revolutionary wave theoretical approach. In its absence, the Arab Spring becomes a patchwork of analytically incoherent “cascade protests.” In fact, the Arab world witnessed an extremely coherent process of revolutionary contagion whose liberal and democratic ideology was disseminated transnationally by social media. The impressive speed, scale, and effectiveness of this contagion would have not been possible without the effect of the Arab public sphere—itself partially enabled by social media—on the increasingly cohesive pan-Arab consciousness. Fundamentally, the Arab Spring was the first revolutionary wave ever to reflect the change in power relations originating in the rise of new communication networks.     

The Neo-Communist Regime of Present-Day China

The first goal of this article is to define the neo-communist regime as a specific type of undemocratic post-communist construct. Three case studies analyzing the regimes led by Zhan Videnov in Bulgaria, Ion Iliescu in Romania, and Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Belarus are used to identify its main characteristics. The second goal is to show that the present-day Chinese regime falls into this category. As such, it does not represent an intermediate or transitional phase. This ‘hard’ neo-communist regime is the final stage of the Chinese post-communist transition. In the foreseeable future, it will most likely preserve its present characteristics.     

The Arab Spring: last episode of the Cold War

Using the Regional Security Complex Theory and developing its regime-related dimension, this article analyses the involvement of external powers in Arab Spring conflicts. Libya, Syria and Bahrain are used as case studies showing that Western support for the incumbent regime or for its adversaries was not based on a choice between democracy and authoritarianism. Rather, it was motivated by a pattern of amity and enmity inherited from the Cold War period. The surprising survival of this pattern was due to the three authoritarian regimes’ inability to reform; to the ensuing preservation of their Cold War era perception in the West; and to Russia's new availability as an external patron. Consequently, the article argues that the Arab Spring can be perceived as the last, belated episode of the Cold War. However, its political consequences put an end to the last features inherited from the pre-1989 period and open a new Middle Eastern era.