A Bayesian Change Point Model for Historical Time Series Analysis

Political relationships often vary over time, but standard modelsignore temporal variation in regression relationships. We describea Bayesian model that treats the change point in a time seriesas a parameter to be estimated. In this model, inference forthe regression coefficients reflects prior uncertainty aboutthe location of the change point. Inferences about regressioncoefficients, unconditional on the change-point location, canbe obtained by simulation methods. The model is illustratedin an analysis of real wage growth in 18 OECD countries from1965–1992.     

西部新农村建设中的多元合作治理

西部新农村建设是我国新农村建设的重点和难点,如何在西部农村实现"管理民主".有赖于一个良好的治理模式.基于此,课题组在西部八省(市)进行了长达一年时间的新农村治理的调查研究.试图从多元合作治理视角出发审视西部新农村建设,并提出构建西部农村多元合作治理模式的对策建议.     

关中高新技术产业集聚的两条道路

关中高新技术产业带形成过程中,走着两条交织并存的道路:一条是大企业带动道路;另一条是中小企业协同促进道路。这两条道路在分工类型、产业动力、产业组织、产业性质、产业技术进步和产业发展速度等方面均有不同特点和优劣势。清醒认识这两条道路及其特点与优劣势,很有意义。     

Going for the throat: Carnivore in an Echelon World — Part I

Carnivore is a surveillance technology, a software program housed in a computer unit, which is installed by properly authorized FBI agents on a particular Internet Service Provider’s (ISP) network. The Carnivore software system is used together with a tap on the ISP’s network to “intercept, filter, seize and decipher digital communications on the Internet”. The system is described as a “specialized network analyzer” that works by “sniffing” a network and copying and storing a warranted subset of its traffic. In the FBI’s own words “Carnivore chews on all data on the network, but it only actually eats the information authorized by a court order”. This article, in two parts, will provide an overview of the FBI’s Carnivore electronic surveillance system. The Carnivore software’s evolution, its ‘prey’ and the system’s relationship with Internet Service Providers will be the focus of the study. (Although the FBI’s Carnivore surveillance system is now officially called DCS1000, as the surveillance system is more commonly referred to as “Carnivore”, that term will be used throughout). Also addressed in the article are misconceptions about Carnivore, publicly available sniffer programs, Carnivore’s functionality, methods to counter Carnivore as well as the software’s limitations. In addition, the pertinent American law allowing for wiretapping and electronic surveillance as well as programs and policies outside the United States regarding electronic surveillance are surveyed, and an overview of ECHELON, the global interception and relay system, is provided. The aim is to provide the paper’s readers with a better understanding of these surveillance systems: naturally, only through an in-depth knowledge can the benefits and dangers they present for the public (government), private (individual communications users) and technical industry (ISPs) be understood.     

论韩礼德的语法比喻理论

根据韩礼德的理论,语言由三元功能组成,即概念性功能、人际关系性功能和文本性功能。与传统的词汇比喻相对应,语法比喻就上述三种功能都单独发挥作用。本文围绕语法比喻的类型、与谈话方式、文本组织和语言类型的关系等几个方面进行了阐述。