The Statistical Properties and Empirical Performance of Double Regression

Voting rights litigation requires ecological inference to estimatethe voting preferences of minority and nonminority groups withinthe electorate. Double regression has been the procedure mostcommonly employed for this purpose. This article presents thefirst formal examination of this procedure. The underlying structuralmodel reveals that double regression estimators are neitherunbiased nor consistent estimators of true within-group votepreferences or polarization. Simulations demonstrate that theycan substantially exaggerate the differences between minorityand nonminority vote choices when none are present, and dramaticallyunderstate them when differences exist. In sum, double regressioncannot meet conventional statistical standards for reliability.Consequently, it should be abandoned.     

Initiatives and government expenditures

This paper demonstrates that provisions for initiatives have important effects on government spending. Provisions for initiatives encourage legislatures to approve any proposal which might attract substantial popular support. If these proposals are more likely to advocate increases than reductions in expenditures, the presence of initiative provisions will increase total expenditures. Direct government expenditures per capita are significantly higher in both states and municipalities which permit initiatives.The Project in State and Local Government Finance of the National Bureau of Economic Research supported the research presented in this paper. Only I am responsible for the content.