More Twists, Turns and Stumbles in the Jungle: A Further Exploration of Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Decisions within the Kyoto Protocol

This article traces the history of decisions relating to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, for the period from 2001 until the present. It follows from an earlier article written by the author. As times progress, matters relating to LULUCF become more convoluted and complex. The article explores such issues as the definition of a forest, what constitutes 'Kyoto land', modalities for afforestation and reforestation under the Clean Development Mechanism, greenhouse gas inventories, reporting and reviews, and possible actions to reduce emissions from deforestation. The article also looks at the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and its input into the science and policy-making process relating to LULUCF.     

Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.