Determinants of regime type in newly independent states

Abstract.  Since 1945, newly independent states have differed from longer lived states in their greater risk of violent conflict and more challenging environment for democratisation. The authors of this article theorise that certain economic, demographic, violence-related and external factors should affect the regime type (level of democracy versus autocracy) in newly independent states. Examining exclusively newly independent states that have undergone major political transitions allows one to determine factors favouring democracy over autocracy under such volatile circumstances. The authors test several hypotheses, using cross-sectional and cross-sectional time-series analyses, and find that economic development elevates the level of democracy in new states. Cultural heterogeneity has no effect, but external factors play an important role. Genocide and politicide reduce democracy, while civil wars have the opposite effect. These findings prove robust to alternative measurements of the dependent variable and alternative model specifications.     

Taming Capitalism

As the global financial crisis emanating from the United States shuts down world markets, can globalization survive? Will the resurgent intrusion of the state—and thus politics—into the market lead to protectionism and collapse, as was the case in the early 20th century? Or will the new interconnectivity of climate change and mutual economic dependence—especially between China and the US—deepen global links? The former mayor of Shanghai, legendary Nobel economist Paul Samuelson and Third Way guru Anthony Giddens ponder those questions in this section.     

The State and the Internet: A Call for Collective Responsibility

The other great transformation in the world besides the rising power of the emerging economies has been the ever deeper penetration of the Internet in civil society and the economy. Alone among world leaders, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has sought to address the sticky issue of how to “civilize the Internet” in the G‐8, a key forum of global governance which France chairs this year. As a kind of historical document, in this section we publish Sarkozy's speech to the leading information technologists and entrepreneurs he gathered in Paris in May for the first “e‐G‐8” Summit. Eric Schmidt, executive chairman of Google, was among the attendees. We include his report to the 21st Century Council of the Nicolas Berggruen Institute.     

Political Meritocracy and Direct Democracy: A Hybrid Experiment

At the turn of the 20th Century when Western power was at its height, Sun Yat‐Sen sought to blend the Confucian tradition of meritocratic governance and Western‐style democracy in his vision for modern China. With the “rise of the rest” in the 21st Century—led by China—perhaps the political imagination is open once again, this time not only to Western ideas flowing East, but Eastern ideas flowing West as well. The political imagination has been pried open anew not only because of the sustained success of non‐Western modernity in places like Singapore and China, but because democracy itself has become so dysfunctional across the West, from its ancient birthplace in Greece to its most advanced outpost in California. That liberal democracy is the best form of governance ever achieved in the long arc of history is no longer self‐evident. Today, democracy, which has been captured by a short‐term, special‐interest political culture, has to prove and improve itself by incorporating elements of meritocracy and the long‐term perspective. If not, political decay beckons. In this section, we evaluate the tradeoeffs and ponder the possibilities of combining a more knowledegable democracy with a more accountable meritocracy.     

Only Full Integration Can Save Europe

The sovereign debt problem in Europe, ignited by Greece, has morphed into an economic crisis challenging the solvency of major banks and countries as well as a generalized crisis of governance. Lacking the legitimacy of public support, the leaders of the European Union's fledgling institutions have been indecisive and unable to contain the looming danger of financial contagion. Along with the economic slowdown in the United States, instability and volatility in Europe threaten to derail the fragile global recovery. In this section, several former European leaders as well as political figures from the emerging economies offer their ideas on how to fix Europe and stem the global threat.     

AID'S CRISIS OF LEGITIMACY: CURRENT PROPOSALS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Aid to Africa is less threatened by the current foreign policyand fiscal pressures than by a complex crisis of legitimacyregarding the enterprise. Despite official rhetoric to the contrary,most aid insiders are disappointed by the current achievementsof aid. The current malaise has resulted in a considerable fermentof thinking about how to make aid more effective. This articledescribes four sets of proposals that have been advanced. Theseinclude proposals to make aid more selective, as well as toadopt a more need-based approach, which includes proposals topromote government ownership, and to focus aid on non-governmentalactors in the private and voluntary sectors. It is argued thateach of these proposals is desirable, but that together theyare probably incompatible, certainly difficult for the donorsto implement and unlikely to address the real problems thathave plagued aid and African development these last thirty-fiveyears. The real challenge, not addressed by most current reformproposals, is to change how donors and recipients manage aid,so that it contributes to a sound development strategy. Thearticle concludes that the main impulse for reform must comefrom African countries themselves, rather than from the donorcountries.     

How Not to Handle An Oil Spill

In his June remarks from the Oval Office,U.S. President Barack Obama called the Gulf of Mexico oil spill "the worst environmental disaster America has ever faced." But his administration sure didn't act like it. Instead the federal government responded to the crisis in the gulf with ineptitude and inattention.