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Hilde Wermink Robert Apel Paul Nieuwbeerta Arjan A. J. Blokland 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2013,29(4):579-600
Objectives
The logic of incapacitation is the prevention of crime via the forced removal of known offenders from the community. The challenge is to provide a plausible estimate of how many crimes an incarcerated individual would have committed, were s/he free in the community rather than confined in prison. The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the incapacitation effect of first-time imprisonment from a sample of convicted offenders.Methods
The data are official criminal records of all individuals convicted in The Netherlands in 1997. Two different analytical strategies are used to estimate an incapacitation effect. First, the offending rate of the imprisoned individuals prior to their confinement in 1997 provides a “within-person counterfactual”. Second, imprisoned offenders are paired with comparable non-imprisoned offenders using the method of propensity score matching in order to estimate a “between-person counterfactual”. Incapacitation estimates are provided separately for juvenile imprisonment (ages 12–17) as well as adult imprisonment (ages 18–50), and for male and female offenders.Results
The best estimate is that 1 year of incarceration prevents between 0.17 and 0.21 convictions per year. The use of additional data sources indicates that this corresponds to between roughly 2.0 and 2.5 criminal offenses recorded by the police.Conclusions
The current results suggest that, insofar as imprisonment is used with the primary goal of reducing crime through incapacitation, a general increase in the use of incarceration as the sanction of choice is not likely to yield major crime control benefits. 相似文献2.
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Robert Apel Arjan A. J. Blokland Paul Nieuwbeerta Marieke van Schellen 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2010,26(2):269-300
Marriage has a prominent place in criminological theory and research as one institution that has the potential to genuinely
foster desistance from a criminal career. Mass imprisonment policies in the United States and elsewhere, therefore, pose a
potential threat of increased crime if they impede the ability of ex-prisoners to reintegrate into society by stigmatizing
them and limiting their chances in the marriage market. We use a long-term study of a conviction cohort in The Netherlands
to ascertain the effect that first-time imprisonment has on the likelihood of marriage and divorce. The results suggest that
the effect of imprisonment on the likelihood of marriage (among unmarried offenders) is largely a selection artifact, although
there is very weak evidence for a short-lived impact that does not persist past the first year post-release. This is interpreted
as a residual incapacitation effect. On the other hand, the results strongly suggest that the experience of incarceration
leads to a substantially higher divorce risk among offenders who are married when they enter prison. 相似文献
4.
Criminologists are increasingly interested in the effects of life-course dynamics on criminological development. However, detailed longitudinal data are difficult to obtain and possibly confounded due to recall errors. Life Event Calendars (LECs) are designed to reduce recall errors and are increasingly used as a method for obtaining valid retrospective data in criminological studies. Yet few studies exist that assess the accuracy of LEC data in offender samples. This study aims to fill this void. We compare data regarding the prevalence and timing of marriage, divorce, and childbirth obtained through an LEC to official registry data in a sample of convicted offenders. We examine whether the accuracy of the data vary by event or respondent specific characteristics. We conclude that the LEC data are quite accurate regarding the prevalence of marriage, divorce, and childbirth. The data are less accurate regarding the timing of these life events. 相似文献
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Selectively Incapacitating Frequent Offenders: Costs and Benefits of Various Penal Scenarios 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
A small number of offenders are responsible for a disproportionate share of total crime. Policy makers have been seeking to
reduce crime more efficiently by targeting corrections at these frequent offenders. Thus far, both macro- and micro-level
research have yielded mixed results regarding the effects of these kinds of selective policies. The current study uses data
from the Netherlands Criminal Career and Life-course Study to estimate the incapacitative effects of alternative selective
prison policies. Using the rolling cohorts method, implementations of various penal scenarios differing in selection rate,
sentence disparity and selective accuracy are simulated. Results show that it is hard for selective policies to yield a positive
societal result: costs of imprisonment typically exceed benefits gained from crimes prevented.
相似文献
Arjan A. J. BloklandEmail: |
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Paul Nieuwbeerta Daniel S. Nagin Arjan A. J. Blokland 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2009,25(3):227-257
Using data from the Netherlands-based Criminal Career and Life-course Study the effect of first-time imprisonment between
age 18–38 on the conviction rates in the 3 years immediately following the year of the imprisonment was examined. Unadjusted
comparisons of those imprisoned and those not imprisoned will be biased because imprisonment is not meted out randomly. Selection
processes will tend to make the imprisoned group disproportionately crime prone compared to the not imprisoned group. In this
study group-based trajectory modeling was combined with risk set matching to balance a variety of measurable indicators of
criminal propensity. Findings indicate that first-time imprisonment is associated with an increase in criminal activity in
the 3 years following release. The effect of imprisonment is similar across offence types.
相似文献
Paul NieuwbeertaEmail: |
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Steve G. A. van de Weijer Catrien C. J. H. Bijleveld Arjan A. J. Blokland 《Journal of family violence》2014,29(2):109-118
The current study examines the intergenerational transmission and concentration of violent offending using conviction data of 3,440 persons from three consecutive generations from the Dutch Transfive study. Violent offending is more concentrated within nuclear families than non-violent offending, and the intergenerational transmission of violent offending is stronger than the intergenerational transmission of non-violent offending. Due to the low prevalence of violent offending by women, only transmission from father to son is studied. Paternal violent offending before the birth of the son does not increase the son’s risk to become violent, while paternal violent offending during the son’s childhood and adolescence does. These results suggest that exposure to paternal violence plays an important role in the intergenerational transmission of violent offending. 相似文献
8.
Hilde Wermink Arjan Blokland Paul Nieuwbeerta Daniel Nagin Nikolaj Tollenaar 《Journal of Experimental Criminology》2010,6(3):325-349
This study uses longitudinal official record data on adult offenders in The Netherlands (n = 4,246) to compare recidivism after community service to that after short-term imprisonment. To account for possible bias
due to selection of offenders into these types of sanctions, we control for a large set of confounding variables using a combined
method of ‘matching by variable’ and ‘propensity score matching’. Our findings demonstrate that offenders recidivate significantly
less after having performed community service compared to after having been imprisoned. This finding holds for both the short-
and long-term. Furthermore, using the Rosenbaum bounds method, we show that the results are robust for hidden bias. 相似文献
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