Examining the research underlying the sentencing guidelines concept in Denver,Colorado: A partial replication of a reform effort

This paper examines the empirical basis for the criminal sentencing guidelines developed in Denver, Colorado. Unlike many other sentencing reforms, such guidelines have generally been developed out of an empirical analysis of past sentencing decisions, which identifies those variables most predictive of sentence. Empirical arguments, as a part of a reform effort, are often more persuasive than nonempirical arguments. However, when the analysis is inadequate or faulty, the resultant reform effort may be called into question.Presented in this paper is a reanalysis of the original data used to develop the Denver guidelines. Questions are raised regarding implications of extensive missing observations across cases and the resulting shrinkage of cases available for multivariate analyses. The original data is reanalyzed in both its original form and in a more complete form by estimating the missing data through a complex regression technique. Our analyses suggest that there are serious methodological weaknesses in the original study. The implications of these weaknesses are discussed.     

Sexual crime and place: The impact of the environmental context on sexual assault outcomes

Purpose

Using the rational choice perspective, the current study investigates the impact that the environment and offending behavior have on serial sexual crime event outcomes.

Methods

The effects of time and place factors, as well as offender modus operandi strategies, on sexual crime event outcomes are tested using Generalized Estimating Equations on a sample of 361 crime events committed by 72 serial sex offenders.

Results

Time and place do impact serial stranger sexual offenders’ modus operandi strategies, but the place characteristics of the crime have more of an effect on the offender’s behavior than do the temporal conditions during which the event occurs. Subsequent analyses indicate that temporal and place factors, as well as offender modus operandi strategies, predict whether the offender completes the rape, his reaction to victim resistance, and the level of physical force that he inflicts on the victim, but not whether the victim is forced to commit sexual acts on the offender.

Conclusions

Serial stranger sexual offenders are effective decision-makers who adapt their strategies to the physical environment in which they commit their crimes, but their degree of rationality can vary as some outcomes are more dependent on the context than the offender and his actions.     

A Computational Framework for Age‐at‐Death Estimation from the Skeleton: Surface and Outline Analysis of 3D Laser Scans of the Adult Pubic Symphysis

In forensic anthropology, age‐at‐death estimation typically requires the macroscopic assessment of the skeletal indicator and its association with a phase or score. High subjectivity and error are the recognized disadvantages of this approach, creating a need for alternative tools that enable the objective and mathematically robust assessment of true chronological age. We describe, here, three fully computational, quantitative shape analysis methods and a combinatory approach that make use of three‐dimensional laser scans of the pubic symphysis. We report a novel age‐related shape measure, focusing on the changes observed in the ventral margin curvature, and refine two former methods, whose measures capture the flatness of the symphyseal surface. We show how we can decrease age‐estimation error and improve prior results by combining these outline and surface measures in two multivariate regression models. The presented models produce objective age‐estimates that are comparable to current practices with root‐mean‐square‐errors between 13.7 and 16.5 years.     

Nations by design?

National Identity, by Anthony D. Smith. Penguin, Harmondsworth and London, 1991. x + 227 pp. £5.99 paperback. ISBN 0–14–012565–5.

Ethnic Groups Across National Boundaries in Mainland Southeast Asia, edited by Gehan Wijeyewardene. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1990. 183 pp. S$39.50/US$24.00 hardback, S$29.50/US$18.00 paperback. ISBN 981–3035–61–7, 981–3035–57–9.     

Modernization is alive and well and living in . . .

Democracy in Developing Countries, edited by Larry Diamond, Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset. Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder, Co.; Adamantine Press Ltd, London. (Vol. 1, in preparation; vol. 2, 1988; vols. 3 and 4, 1989.) Volume Two, Africa, xxix+314 pp., maps. £25.00 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–039–2 and 1–55587–040–6. Volume Three, Asia, xxix+489 pp. £29.50 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–041–4 and 1–55587–042–2. Volume Three, Latin America. xxix+515 pp. £29.50 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–043–0 and 1–55587–044–9.