The race may be close but my horse is going to win: Wish fulfillment in the 1980 presidential election

Using data from the 1980 U.S. presidential election, we investigate the extent to which voter expectations about candidate electoral success and margin of victory are subject to systematic biases. In particular, we examine the extent to which candidate supporters overestimate their choice's likelihood of success. After finding a rather dramatic bias in the direction of wishful thinking, we review alternative explanations of this phenomenon, including a model based on nonrandom contact networks and one based on preference-related differences in expectations about exogenous variables that could affect the election outcome.     

End note: Reflections and limitations

Abstract

It may seem curious to some readers to match the outstanding athlete biographical sketches of the main scholar-researchers of this volume with their fierce message regarding the threat to sport, and its practitioners, from sexual harassment. In an absolutist, three second sound bite, mass consumption stereotype-driven developed world, one might expect here a “weakest link” debate about the value(s) of sport. This debate would feature effete, intellectual critics and very muscular, tradition-bound advocates. Not so; for these writers not only demonstrate well-reasoned and literature-informed arguments, and thorough, data-driven analyses but also courageous research programmes extending back to times when the work they did was completely marginalised and misunderstood. Their work, then as now, was fuelled in great part by a deep awareness and regard for the experience of sport as a healthy and joyful human right and by a wish to preserve it as such, for all.     

Life and death

Advances in science are altering what it means to be human. So why aren't the candidates talking about it?     

The Importance of Trust in Government for Public Administration: The Case of Zoning

Many scholars argue that citizens with higher levels of political trust are more likely to grant bureaucratic discretion to public administrators than citizens with lower levels of trust. Trust, therefore, can relieve the tension between managerial flexibility and political accountability in the modern administrative state. Unfortunately, there is little empirical evidence showing that trust is actually associated with citizens' willingness to cede policy-making power to government. This article tests theories about political trust and citizen competence using the case of zoning. Trust in local government is found to be an important predictor of support for zoning, but trust in state government and trust in national government have no effect. These findings suggest that trust affects policy choice and helps determine how much power citizens grant to local administrators.     

Louisiana's Ethical Culture and Its Effect on the Administrative Failures Following Katrina

Louisiana's history of colorful politics and corruption in government is legendary, and within Louisiana, it is something celebrated—or at least warmly embraced—as part of the cultural richness of the state. An oft-repeated phrase is that Louisiana is no more corrupt than any place else, it's just that Louisianans are proud of it. Though such sentiment is certainly not true of everyone in Louisiana, it is a quality that permeates discussions of federal financial assistance to the state in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and helps explain the widespread misuse of assistance funds. Yet beyond concern for the loss of dollars are the very real and tragic consequences for the citizens who were most affected by Hurricane Katrina—who have received but a trickle of the flood of money that has poured into the state. For these people, who remain without adequate shelter, resources, educational opportunities, health care, and support networks, the recovery progress has remained basically unchanged over the last two years. An overview of the ethical culture of Louisiana and reflections on how that culture contributed to and exacerbated administrative failure in the wake of Katrina is presented here.     

Cities and people: Towards a gender-aware urban planning process?

Recognition of the deficiencies of traditional ‘blueprint’ approaches to land use and infrastructure planning has led to increased emphasis on management of the process of urban development. Such management should recognize the distributional impacts of decision-making and be responsive to the needs of residents. However, much urban planning activity has been and continues to be gender-blind. In order to redress this deficiency, it is argued that increased understanding is needed of women's economic and social roles in urban society, their exclusion from economic opportunities and decision-making processes, and the discriminatory nature of much legislation. Urban residents’ experience is shaped both by household strategies and by the way in which they are affected by or can affect planning, investment and management decisions made at the neighbourhood or city level. Differing experiences may be related to class and ethnicity, but are also likely to be gender-specific. The potential impact of policy and investment in a variety of sectors of urban development on residents, especially women, is explored. Recommendations are made for a more gender-aware approach to planning for economic activity, land and shelter, public transport and infrastructural and social services, and for specific actions to be taken by both planners and residents.