The race may be close but my horse is going to win: Wish fulfillment in the 1980 presidential election

Using data from the 1980 U.S. presidential election, we investigate the extent to which voter expectations about candidate electoral success and margin of victory are subject to systematic biases. In particular, we examine the extent to which candidate supporters overestimate their choice's likelihood of success. After finding a rather dramatic bias in the direction of wishful thinking, we review alternative explanations of this phenomenon, including a model based on nonrandom contact networks and one based on preference-related differences in expectations about exogenous variables that could affect the election outcome.     

End note: Reflections and limitations

Abstract

It may seem curious to some readers to match the outstanding athlete biographical sketches of the main scholar-researchers of this volume with their fierce message regarding the threat to sport, and its practitioners, from sexual harassment. In an absolutist, three second sound bite, mass consumption stereotype-driven developed world, one might expect here a “weakest link” debate about the value(s) of sport. This debate would feature effete, intellectual critics and very muscular, tradition-bound advocates. Not so; for these writers not only demonstrate well-reasoned and literature-informed arguments, and thorough, data-driven analyses but also courageous research programmes extending back to times when the work they did was completely marginalised and misunderstood. Their work, then as now, was fuelled in great part by a deep awareness and regard for the experience of sport as a healthy and joyful human right and by a wish to preserve it as such, for all.     

EU issue voting and the 2014 European Parliament elections: a dynamic perspective

EU issue voting in European Parliament elections has been shown to be highly conditional upon levels of EU politicization. The present study analyzes this conditionality over time, hypothesizing that the effect of EU attitudes on EP vote preferences is catalyzed as EP elections draw closer. In contrast to extant cross-sectional post-election studies, we use a four-wave panel study covering the six months leading up to the Dutch EP elections of 2014, differentiating between party groups (pro, anti, mixed) and five EU attitude dimensions. We find that EU issue voting occurs for both anti- and pro-EU parties, but only increases for the latter. For mixed parties we find no effect of EU attitudes, yet their support base shifts in the anti-EU direction as the elections draw closer. The overarching image, however, is one of surprising stability: EU attitudes form a consistent part of EP voting motivations even outside EP election times.     

Louisiana's Ethical Culture and Its Effect on the Administrative Failures Following Katrina

Louisiana's history of colorful politics and corruption in government is legendary, and within Louisiana, it is something celebrated—or at least warmly embraced—as part of the cultural richness of the state. An oft-repeated phrase is that Louisiana is no more corrupt than any place else, it's just that Louisianans are proud of it. Though such sentiment is certainly not true of everyone in Louisiana, it is a quality that permeates discussions of federal financial assistance to the state in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and helps explain the widespread misuse of assistance funds. Yet beyond concern for the loss of dollars are the very real and tragic consequences for the citizens who were most affected by Hurricane Katrina—who have received but a trickle of the flood of money that has poured into the state. For these people, who remain without adequate shelter, resources, educational opportunities, health care, and support networks, the recovery progress has remained basically unchanged over the last two years. An overview of the ethical culture of Louisiana and reflections on how that culture contributed to and exacerbated administrative failure in the wake of Katrina is presented here.