Legislative Transparency and Credit Risk

Open governance requirements are designed to improve accountability, which implies that transparent governments are more trustworthy stewards of their publicly invested power. However, transparency may also reduce institutional effectiveness and inhibit political compromise, diminishing the capacity to manage resources responsibly. We assess empirical support for these competing perspectives in the context of American state legislatures, many of which have become exempt from state sunshine laws in recent decades. We leverage variation in the timing of these legislative exemptions to identify the effect of removing transparency in a crucial governing institution on investors’ risk perceptions of states’ general obligation bonds. Our analysis of these data during the period 1995–2010 suggests that removing legislative transparency reduces state credit risk. We conclude that while openness in government may be normatively desirable, shielding legislative proceedings from public view may actually be better for states’ debt repayment capacity, improving their overall fiscal health.     

When Do Ideologies Produce Alliances?

Recent research suggests a conditional relationship between states' domestic regimes or ideologies and their alliances. I argue that the likelihood that alliances will form along ideological lines increases with the fear among at least two governments of ideology I that they are threatened by transnational rival ideology J . Understanding the power of demonstration effects—that when J advances in one country it gains credibility in others— I -governments will have an incentive to enter an international agreement to oppose J domestically. Such domestic-security agreements will exacerbate the security dilemma, raising fears among J -governments that I -governments are forming a bloc directed at J and J -governments. J -governments will tend to respond by increasing cooperation among themselves, inducing corresponding fears among I -governments; the coalescing I - and J -blocs will tend to spiral into alliances. I - or J -governments wishing to avoid ideologically based alliances may signal an absence of rollback intentions through various means. I demonstrate this process of alliance formation with a lengthy case study of alliance formation in the Holy Roman Empire in the sixteenth century.     

Characterization of human DNA in environmental samples

Environmental samples from indoor surfaces can be confounded by dust, which is composed largely of human skin cells and has been documented to contain roughly tens of micrograms of total DNA per gram of dust. This study complements previous published work by providing estimates of the quantity of amplifiable human DNA found in environmental samples from a typical indoor environment, categorized by the intensity of human traffic and visible quantity of dust. Dust was collected by surface swabbing standard 576 cm² areas in eight locations, and evaluated for total DNA quantity, presence of human DNA (mitochondrial and nuclear loci using conventional PCR), quantity of human nuclear DNA using quantitative PCR, and STR analysis. The total DNA content of 36 dust samples ranged from 9 to 28 ng/cm², and contained 0.2–1.1 pg/cm² of human DNA. Overall, human DNA was detected in 97% of 36 dust samples and 61% of samples yielded allele distributions of varying degrees of complexity when subjected to STR analysis. The implications of this study are twofold. First, the presence of dust in evidence can be a significant contamination source in forensic investigations because the human DNA component is of sufficient quality and quantity to produce allele calls in STR analysis. This can be effectively managed by implementing stringent protocols for collection and analysis of potential biological samples. A second implication is the use of dust as a source of evidence for identification of inhabitants within a defined location. In the latter case, a number of additional studies would be necessary to identify relevant pretreatments for environmental dust samples and to develop the necessary deconvolution techniques to separate the composite genotypes obtained.     

Recovery of Environmental Human DNA by Insects*,†

Abstract: We tested the hypotheses that foraging insects can acquire human DNA from the environment and that insect‐delivered human DNA is of sufficient quantity and quality to permit standard forensic analyses. Houseflies, German cockroaches, and camel crickets were exposed to dusty surfaces and then assayed for human mitochondrial and nuclear loci by conventional and qPCR, and multiplex STR amplification. Over two experiments, 100% of insect groups and 94% of dust controls tested positive for human DNA. Of 177 individuals, 33–67% tested positive and 13 yielded quantifiable human DNA (mean = 0.022 ± 0.006 ng; mean dust control = 2.448 ± 0.960 ng); four had at least one positive allele call for one or more locus; eight others showed multiple peaks at some loci. Results imply that application to routine forensic casework is limited given current detection methodology yet demonstrate the potential use of insects as environmental samplers for human DNA.     

Deterrence Theory and Peers: Do Close Friends Perceive Sanction Certainty in a Similar Manner?

Although deterrence theory and social learning theory have been linked on many occasions and are compatible theoretical constructs, criminologists know very little about how the elements of deterrence operate among and between friends. The purpose of this study is to evaluate if similarities in the certainty of sanction, a main element of deterrence, are held between close friends in emerging adulthood. Using data from 1,077 friendship pairs, several confirmatory factor analyses are estimated that attempt to define a friendship-level certainty of sanction construct. Results indicate that friends do not share in common any tendency to perceive similar certainties of sanction. Not only does the certainty between friends fail to load unidimensionally, the two friends’ individual certainty constructs are nearly completely unrelated to each other. In terms of policy implications, peer-based programs targeting increases in sanction certainty tentatively appear to be unnecessary.     

Rethinking Timing of First Sex and Delinquency

The relation between timing of first sex and later delinquency was examined using a genetically informed sample of 534 same-sex twin pairs from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, who were assessed at three time points over a 7-year interval. Genetic and environmental differences between families were found to account for the association between earlier age at first sex and increases in delinquency. After controlling for these genetic and environmental confounds using a quasi-experimental design, earlier age at first sex predicted lower levels of delinquency in early adulthood. The current study is contrasted with previous research with non-genetically informative samples, including Armour and Haynie (2007, Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 36, 141–152). Results suggest a more nuanced perspective on the meaning and consequences of adolescent sexuality than is commonly put forth in the literature.

Rib Variation at Multiple Locations and Implications for Histological Age Estimation*

Existing histological age estimation methods using the rib were developed mainly from the midshaft; however, in forensic practice, uncertainty of sampling location often arises due to fragmented or previously sampled ribs. The potential for error increases when sampling location is uncertain and utilizing a section beyond the midshaft (either anterior or posterior) may result in erroneous age estimates. Additionally, there is debate within the field regarding the minimum number of sections needed for accurate age estimation. The aim of this research is to determine the importance of the midshaft distinction for age-at-death assessment and the necessity of analyzing serial sections by evaluating histological variables at sampling locations along the length of the rib. Three seriated histological sections at three sampling locations (anterior, midshaft, and posterior) were obtained from sixth ribs of ten postmortem human subjects. Cortical area (Ct.Ar) and osteon population density (OPD) were collected from each section (n = 90). Significant differences were determined in Ct.Ar between sampling locations, demonstrating the variation present along the length of the rib. A comparison of OPD at sampling locations revealed significant differences, suggesting that sampling site is critical to accurate age estimates. When sampling location is uncertain, a more anterior section should be taken. Analysis of serial sections within locations revealed no significant differences in OPD or Ct.Ar, supporting the practice of collecting data from one section for age estimation. While an age estimate can be achieved through the analysis of one section, best practice suggests reading two sections to capture intraindividual variation.