Timing and Outcome of Legislation: Brazilian Pension Reform in a Bicameral Perspective

In 1995 and 2003, Brazilian Presidents Cardoso and Lula da Silva submitted almost identical pension reform bills to Congress. However, these bills had very different fates in terms of the outcomes of congressional deliberation and the timing of enactment. What explains timing and outcomes of legislation? Using Brazilian pension reform as a case, this article explains legislative timing and outcomes from bicameral and bargaining perspectives. It examines two hypotheses: (1) bicameral incongruence of policy preferences increases the likelihood of legislative gridlock; and (2) impatience accelerates the timing of legislation. Evidence from archival research and interviews with Brazilian legislators strongly support these hypotheses.     

A solid-phase microextraction method for the detection of ignitable liquids in fire debris

A solid-phase microextraction (SPME) procedure involving direct contact between the SPME fibers and the solid matrix and subsequent gas chromatography/mass spectrometric analysis for the detection of accelerants in fire debris is described. The extraction performances of six fibers (100 mum polydimethylsiloxane, 65 mum polydimethylsiloxane-divinylbenzene, 85 mum polyacrylate, 85 mum carboxen-polydimethylsiloxane, 70 mum Carbowax-divinylbenzene, and 50/30 mum divinylbenzene-Carboxen-polydimethylsiloxane) were investigated by directly immersing the fibers into gasoline, kerosene, and diesel fuel. For simulated fire debris, in the direct contact extraction method, the SPME fiber was kept in contact with the fire debris matrix during extraction by penetrating plastic bags wrapping the sample. This method gave comparable results to the headspace SPME method in the extraction of gasoline and kerosene, and gave an improved recovery of low-volatile components in the extraction of diesel fuel from fire debris. The results demonstrate that this procedure is suitable as a simple and rapid screening method for detecting ignitable liquids in fire debris packed in plastic bags.     

Exchange Rate Regime,Central Bank Independence,and Political Business Cycles in Brazil

This article examines policy consequences of electoral cycles and exchange rate regime choices in Brazil. The literature on opportunistic political business cycles maintains that governments adopt expansionary economic policies before elections to mobilize voters’ support. However, research findings in Latin America based on the theory has been inconclusive. I argue that the lack of conclusive evidence in Latin America stems from measurement errors common in the use of cross-national aggregate data. Using Brazil’s monthly data from 1985 to 2006, this article shows that there are electorally induced fiscal cycles under fixed and crawling peg exchange rate regimes and electorally induced monetary cycles under floating exchange rates only when the nation’s central bank is not independent. Indeed, accounting for Brazil’s unique economic contingencies and longitudinal variations in the de facto central bank independence, its public policy behavior remarkably resembles that of the more affluent, economically stable OECD countries.

Risk factors of sudden death in the Japanese hot bath in the senior population

A series of experiments were carried out to clarify the cause of death and the risk factors related to sudden death in the Japanese senior population while bathing in a Japanese style "hot bath." The biodynamic changes while bathing were carefully monitored under actual bathing situations occurring in both the winter and summer seasons. We observed double product (DP), total peripheral blood vessel resistance (TPR), cardiac output (CO), and blood vessel compliance (COMP) by measuring blood pressure, heart rate, pulse wave, and electrocardiogram (ECG). The finding of a high level of DP in the elderly suggests that more myocardial oxygen consumption is needed than for young adults, particularly in subjects with arrhythmia. Although the values for TPR and CO changed somewhat during bathing, the changes were considered normal and to be expected. However, more significant and substantial changes were observed during the winter experiment than during the summer experiment, no doubt owing to lower temperature of the bathing room. The value of COMP did not vary significantly between winter and summer subjects. Twelve subjects in the elderly developed ECG changes while bathing such as supraventricular extrasystole or ventricular tachycardia. No clinical significance was found in the biochemical analyses of the blood obtained before and after bathing. In conclusion, some subjects in the elderly showed risky changes in the above parameters and ECG, factors which may partially explain some of the causes of the many reported cases of lapse of consciousness and unexpected sudden death in the elderly while bathing especially in the winter season. Cold climate, hot water immersion, and hydrostatic pressure may affect their physiological compensation along with existing of coronary stenosis or weakness of respiratory function as a normal consequence of advanced age.     

Japanese Suspect Interviews,Confessions, and Related Factors

Two hundred and ninety-one new adult male inmates convicted of murder, robbery, arson, rape, forcible indecency, and kidnapping completed questionnaires about their pretrial interviews. Logistic regression analyses revealed that marital status, feelings of guilt, and perceptions of the strength of the evidence significantly affected the likelihood of confession by those who had already decided to confess prior to interview. By contrast, prior arrest history and interview style affected the likelihood of confession by those who had not previously decided to confess. Suspects who had no previous arrests and had undergone either Undifferentiated-high or Relationship-focused interviews were more likely to make full confessions. In Undifferentiated-high interviews, police officers employed all of the interviewing techniques examined: they listened closely to the suspects’ accounts, attempted to build good relationships, and discussed the crimes, while also presenting evidence and confronting the suspects. In Relationship-focused interviews, police officers listened attentively to the offenders’ accounts, tried to build good relationships, and discussed the crimes directly. Prisoners who experienced Relationship-focused interviews felt satisfied with their confessions and admitted guilt at trial.     

Dimensions of Legislative Conflict: Coalitions,Obstructionism, and Lawmaking in Multiparty Presidential Regimes

This article addresses central issues in multiparty presidential systems: the functioning of legislative coalitions and the dynamics of legislative conflict. Since electoral competition has elements of both positive‐sum (increase in common support) and zero‐sum (exact division of the support) qualities, lawmaking in coalitional systems presents unique challenges. Using legislative data from Brazil, we examine how coalition management and unity affect legislative delay and obstructionism. We find, among others, that: (1) coalition management is pivotal for both faster legislative approval and less obstructionism, but its effect depends on coalition size; and (2) cohesive opposition impedes the legislative process.     

Police interviewing styles and confessions in Japan

Psychological studies of suspects' confessions have been conducted mostly in English-speaking and European countries, and the results may not generalise to countries whose cultures and policing practices differ. In particular, the difference between Japanese and Western laws may affect the roles that police interviewers play in suspects' confessions. This study examined the interviewing techniques used by Japanese police officers and associated features of the suspects' confessions. An extensive questionnaire was completed by 276 police officers across Japan. Detailed ratings of their interview techniques were factor analysed, yielding five factors: Presentation of Evidence, Confrontation, Rapport Building, Active Listening, and Discussion of the Crime. Based on these five factors, we identified four interviewing styles: Evidence-focused, Confrontational, Relationship-focused, and Undifferentiated. When interrogators employed the Relationship-focused interviewing style, suspects were more likely to make full confessions and to provide new information. By contrast, suspects were more likely to make partial confessions and were less cooperative when the police officers employed an Evidence-focused style.     

Disentangling legislative duration in coalitional presidential systems

ABSTRACT

The speed and actions that bills face in legislatures vary immensely, but we do not have a comprehensive framework to analyse legislative durations. Moreover, the absence of data detailing legislative activities and durations in distinct stages of legislative processes hinders analysis. This article presents a framework for analysing legislative delay in coalitional presidential systems and examines unique data on durations, attributes, and parliamentary activities in legislative processes at the level of individual proposals. The empirical analysis investigates executive proposals considered by the Brazilian Congress and seeks to disentangle when duration means legislative activism, when it is due to political conflict, and when it only represents inertia. Our analysis indicates substantial activities in both content-influencing legislative activism and politically motivated obstructionism. Hence, political conflict is as important a source as policy disagreement in accounting for legislative delay. By examining a hitherto untapped area with rich data, this study opens up new venues for rigorous analyses of legislative durations and gridlock.