Criminal psychological profiling of serial arson crimes

The practice of criminal psychological profiling is frequently cited as being applicable to serial arson crimes. Despite this claim, there does not appear to be any empirical research that examines serial arson offence behaviors in the context of profiling. This study seeks to develop an empirical model of serial arsonist behaviors that can be systematically associated with probable offender characteristics. Analysis has produced a model of offence behaviors that identify four discrete behavior patterns, all of which share a constellation of common nondiscriminatory behaviors. The inherent behavioral themes of each of these patterns are explored with discussion of their broader implications for our understanding of serial arson and directions for future research.     

Cognitive processes in criminal profile construction: a preliminary study

This study undertook an empirically based examination of the cognitive processes associated with the accurate construction of a criminal psychological profile. This was accomplished by comparing the abilities of profilers and nonprofilers in two simulated profiling exercises that measured both profile accuracy and an individual's performance on various tests of memory and comprehension related to the case materials presented in each exercise. The results of these experiments suggest that an incremental relationship exists between comprehension of the case materials and accuracy of the profiles generated. In addition, the findings provide some tentative indications that the comprehension of case material in a narrative (i.e., written) format is an integral cognitive function to proficient profiling.     

Believing is seeing III: perceptions of content in criminal psychological profiles

This study explored Kocsis and Heller's findings concerning the relationship between one's belief and the perceived accuracy of a profile. The influence of types of information was also considered. A sample of 353 participants was used in the present experiment that gauged the perception of information contained in a profile. The results supported Kocsis and Heller's earlier findings with a positive relationship found between belief and perceived accuracy. The more an individual believes in profiling, the more likely he or she is to perceive a profile to be accurate. This relationship was most pronounced in participants' perceptions of information contained in a profile concerning an unknown offender's crime behavior and past history. The more an individual believes in profiling, the more information relating to these two factors is likely to be perceived. This relationship was not observed where information in the same profile involved physical features of the offender.     

CHANGES IN CRIMINAL OFFENDING AROUND THE TIME OF JOB ENTRY: A STUDY OF EMPLOYMENT AND DESISTANCE

Does employment promote desistance from crime? Most perspectives assume that individuals who become employed are less likely to offend than those who do not. The critical issue has to do with the timing of employment transitions in the criminal trajectory. The turning point hypothesis expects reductions in offending after job entries, whereas the maturation perspective assumes desistance to have occurred ahead of successful transitions to legitimate work. Focusing on a sample of recidivist males who became employed during 2001–2006 (N = 783), smoothing spline regression techniques were used to model changes in criminal offending around the point of entry to stable employment. Consistent with the maturation perspective, the results showed that most offenders had desisted prior to the employment transition and that becoming employed was not associated with further reductions in criminal behavior. Consistent with the turning point hypothesis, we identified a subset of offenders who became employed during an active phase of the criminal career and experienced substantial reductions in criminal offending thereafter. However, this trajectory describes less than 2 percent of the sample. The patterns observed in this research suggest that transition to employment is best viewed as a consequence rather than as a cause of criminal desistance.     

UNDERSTANDING LOCAL GOVERNANCE: INSTITUTIONAL FORMS OF COLLABORATION

The article discusses institutional forms of governance, understanding governance as hybrid forms of collaboration, involving government, market actors and/or civil society actors. By utilizing data from a study made of three Norwegian cities, six collaborative efforts are presented, and discussed in relation to analytical characteristics derived from both network theory and organizational theory. This analysis illustrates that these collaboration efforts can, on the one hand, be understood as something located between networks and organizations. On the other hand, one may argue they belong to none of the two theoretical categories, implying the need for new theories regarding collaboration. These observations are followed by some theoretical reflections about how democratic governments can influence collaborations, and ensure that the common will can actually become real.     

DISTINGUISHING FACTS AND ARTIFACTS IN GROUP-BASED MODELING*

Group-based methodology (SPGM) has been presented as suitable to test for the existence of subpopulations not directly observable. Several criminological studies have used this methodology, and it is fair to say that typological theorizing has been spurred by its development. In particular, much of the empirical support for Moffitt's taxonomy (1993, 2006) is from studies using SPGM. In a small simulation experiment, I investigate whether SPGM is suitable for such tests, and I examine the extent to which similar trajectories might equally well result from mechanisms suggested by general theories. I conclude that, as it is usually applied, SPGM cannot provide evidence either for or against a taxonomy and that the usual findings can be explained by competing theories. I argue that this result is not only because of the methodology characteristics but also because of the modeling strategy applied.     

Believing is seeing? Investigating the perceived accuracy of criminal psychological profiles

This study investigated whether perceptions of criminal psychological profiles are influenced by the identity of the profile's author. Police officers were given a profile they were told was written by either a professional profiler or by an unspecified author. When judged in relation to the actual perpetrator of the crime, police officers tended to perceive greater accuracy in a profile when it was labeled as authored by a professional profiler independent of the actual content of the profile. But officers' judgments of the usefulness of the profile were not affected by knowledge of who wrote the profile. Explanations for this result focus on the ambiguous nature of criminal profiles and how this ambiguity enhances the likelihood that beliefs about the validity of profiling can color perceptions of the content of the profile.     

Criminal psychological profiling: validities and abilities

Criminal psychological profiling has attained unprecedented recognition despite little empirical evidence to support its validity and the absence of any thorough exposition of the skills involved with the technique. This article reports on the empirically derived conclusions of studies that sought to examine the accuracy and skill of various groups performing a profiling task. The conclusions provide some support for the contention that professional profilers can produce a more accurate prediction of an unknown offender in comparison to other studied groups. The results also give an indication of the type of skills required for proficient profiling.