Trying not to lose: The electoral consequences of unilateral reform efforts and the social pact formation process

The existing social pact literature claims that governing parties offer social pact proposals because they anticipate they will receive an electoral benefit from social pact agreements. Yet the available data on social pacts inform us that in a substantial minority of cases social pact proposals fail to become social pact agreements. In an effort to better determine the political calculations made by governments before they propose a social pact, this article examines the effect of implementing reform legislation unilaterally, social pact proposals, social pact proposal failures and social pact agreements on the vote share of government parties in 15 Western European countries between 1981 and 2006. It is found that social pact proposals do not have any electoral consequences for governing parties, unilateral legislation and social pact proposal failures reduce the vote share of governing parties, and social pact agreements provide an electoral benefit to parties in minority governments only. These findings suggest that governing parties propose social pacts in a good faith effort to complete a social pact agreement; and that such an agreement is not a way for these parties to gain votes, but to avoid the electoral punishment associated with enacting unpopular reforms unilaterally.     

微软项目管理软件的二次开发

大型项目的管理与实施工作是一项十分复杂而重要的学科。随着计算机科学的迅猛发展，在过去十年中越来越多地涌现出能够有效提高工作效率的软件工具。微软的 MS project软件就是其中较好的一种。我们在实际工作中运用该软件取得了一些十分有益的经验。     

AGE-VARYING EFFECTS OF FAMILY,SCHOOL, AND PEERS ON DELINQUENCY: A MULTILEVEL MODELING TEST OF INTERACTIONAL THEORY*

Few criminologists have directly examined whether the importance of family, school, and peers in the etiology of delinquency changes over the developmental period of adolescence. This study tests hypotheses, derived from Thornberry's (1987) interactional theory, about the age-varying effects of attachment to parents, commitment to school, and association with delinquent peers on delinquency by applying Bryk and Raudenbush's (1992) hierarchical linear models to analyze the first five waves of data from the National Youth Survey. Results show that the direct as well as total effects of delinquent peers and school on delinquency tend to increase from early to middle adolescence, reach a peak at the age of mid-13 and mid-15, respectively, and then decline. This curvilinear pattern of change is interpreted as reflective of the process of adolescent development and the age-delinquency relationship. On the other hand, both direct and total effects of family on delinquency are found to be significant throughout the period of adolescence, but the effects do not systematically vary as hypothesized. Theoretical, methodological, and policy implications of the findings are also discussed.     

分子印迹技术及其在药物分离分析中的应用

分子印迹技术是近几年来集高分子合成、分子设计、分子识别、仿生生物工程等众多学科优势发展起来的一门边缘学科分支。分子印迹聚合物由于具有与天然抗体同样的识别性能和高分子同样的抗腐蚀性能的双重优点,因而广泛应用于分析化学、生物工程、临床医学、环境监测、食品工业等众多领域。文章介绍了分子印迹技术的发展历史、基本原理和分类,综述了分子印迹技术在药物分离分析中的应用。     

韩国的东南亚研究:历史、现状、趋势与特点——以1991—2011年的研究成果为主

韩国是东盟与中日韩("10+3")合作机制的成员国,对东盟及其成员国的研究也逐渐为韩国学术界所关注。本文的主要宗旨是介绍韩国东南亚研究的历史、现状、趋势与特点。由于国内外因素的影响,韩国的东南亚研究在1950—1970年很少为人们所顾及。随着韩国经济的发展及其与东南亚关系的增强,1971—1990年成为韩国的东南亚研究逐渐兴起、基础得以巩固的阶段。1991—2011年则是韩国的东南亚研究得到快速发展的新阶段,具体表现为东南亚研究专家的增加、学术期刊的发行以及研究所(学会)的创立等。     

Reconciling Constitutionalism with Power: Towards a Constitutional Nomos of Political Ordering

Drawing upon Hannah Arendt's and Carl Schmitt's theories on the relationship between nomos and boundary, this paper revisits how constitutionalism and political power are reconciled as constitutional ordering. It first analyzes constitutionalism in the light of political modernity. Indicating that political power grounded by constitutions is omnipotent, complementing and completing constitutionalism, the paper contends that an omnipotent constitutional ordering is anything but an unleashed Leviathan. It is argued that constitutional omnipotence is framed and thus constrained by a constitutional nomos, the matrix of which is a dual delimitation of boundaries, generational, and jurisdictional.     

IS BEING “SPIRITUAL” ENOUGH WITHOUT BEING RELIGIOUS? A STUDY OF VIOLENT AND PROPERTY CRIMES AMONG EMERGING ADULTS

Although prior research has had a tendency to confirm a negative association between religiousness and crime, criminologists have been slow to incorporate new concepts and emergent issues from the scientific study of religion into their own research. The self‐identity phrase “spiritual but not religious” is one of them, which has been increasingly used by individuals who claim to be “spiritual” but disassociate themselves from organized religion. This study first examines differences in crime between “spiritual‐but‐not‐religious” individuals and their “religious‐and‐spiritual,” “religious‐but‐not‐spiritual,” and “neither‐religious‐nor‐spiritual” peers in emerging adulthood. Specifically, we hypothesize that the spiritual‐but‐not‐religious young adults are more prone to crime than their “religious” counterparts, while expecting them to be different from the “neither” group without specifying whether they are more or less crime prone. Second, the expected group differences in crime are hypothesized to be explained by the microcriminological theories of self‐control, social bonding, and general strain. Latent‐variable structural equation models were estimated separately for violent and property crimes using the third wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. The overall results tend to provide a partial support for the hypotheses. Implications for criminology and future research are discussed.     

REGULATORY OPPORTUNISM: CROSS‐NATIONAL PATTERNS IN NATIONAL BANKING REGULATORY RESPONSES FOLLOWING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

The variation in national regulatory responses to the recent global financial crisis has been considerable. This article explores this variation using new data on conditions in 30 different OECD countries between 2009 and 2012. Using a mixed‐method approach which employs both fuzzy‐set qualitative comparative analysis and logistic regression, we test a number of hypotheses regarding regulatory response patterns in the banking sector. Our findings suggest that while state intervention during the financial crisis was a necessary condition for a significant regulatory response, ‘financialization’, operationalized here as the structural dominance of the financial sector in the economy, plays a more important role. We show that financialization is both a sufficient condition and a good predictor of a significant regulatory response, and point to possible causal explanations for this surprising pattern.     

Policy decisiveness and responses to speculative attacks in developed countries

Why are some countries able to defend their currencies when there are speculative attacks, while others fail to do so and devalue their currencies? This article suggests that intragovernment factors as well as government‐legislature relations should be considered because many of the policy responses to speculative attacks do not require legislative acquiescence, so that intragovernment attributes will have more substantial effects on the policy responses than those of government‐legislature relations. This article suggests that cleavages within government and its instability have a negative effect on decisiveness. Data regarding speculative attacks in developed countries from the 1970s to the 1990s and the Heckman selection model show that governments with many veto players and with less durability have had difficulty in defending their currencies in the face of speculative attacks. The article also finds that governmental institutional effects can be constrained by central bank independence. The effects become substantially smaller and statistically insignificant when central banks are very independent. The overall results imply that policy indecisiveness induced by some political factors makes governments less able to adopt a new policy equilibrium that is necessary to respond to an exogenous shock such as speculative attack.