Turning Point Analysis: Using Survey Research to Call Changes in Consumer Behavior and Predict Sales Taxes

Forecasters often disagree on revenue predictions because of differing techniques. Some states, such as Utah, have turned to the use of survey research methods to avoid this dilemma. This article reviews many of the national forecasting models examining consumer sentiment currently in use. And it compares the Utah experience with surveys used in other states.     

Date rape: A feminist analysis

This paper shows how the mythology surrounding rape enters into a criterion of reasonableness which operates through the legal system to make women vulnerable to unscrupulous victimization. It explores the possibility for changes in legal procedures and presumptions that would better serve women's interests and leave them less vulnerable to sexual violence. This requires that we reformulate the criterion of consent in terms of what is reasonable from a woman's point of view.     

Evaluating a new computer-based system for face recall

The Computer-Aided Design Centre has developed a new face recall system which enables a witness to construct the image of a suspect on a television screen. The system currently uses the Photofit library and method of construction. Likenesses of target faces produced by subjects (n=36) using the new system were compared to conventional Photofits produced by a second group of subjects (n=36) of the same targets. There was no difference on any of the three measures employed in the assessed quality of the likenesses produced by Photofit and the CADC System. Both systems tended to produce more recognizable composites when construction was carried out in the presence of the target compared to its absence. Composites made from memory on the initial trial were marginally better with the CADC System than with Photofit. While both systems showed low absolute accuracy, they enjoyed a measure of success in transmitting a likeness of a facial type. It is concluded that while the CADC system shows promise, psychological constraints upon witnesses' powers of recall may place limits on the absolute accuracy achievable with any system of face reconstruction.These experiments were financed by grant No. POL/73 1675/24/3 from the Police Scientific Development Branch of the U.K. Home Office. Points of view expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or positions of the funding body. Our gratitude and thanks are due to Tony Kitson and Clive Holloway for their many hours spent developing and operating the CADC system; Jean Shepherd for her skills as a Photofit operator; the Computer-Aided Design Centre; and the MRC Applied Psychology Unit, Cambridge for facilities and subjects.     

Bureaucratic Posture: On the Need for a Composite Theory of Bureaucratic Behavior

This article examines the underlying assumptions and main findings of four streams of research on bureaucratic postures. It explores the utility of each school of thought for understanding how perspectives on bureaucratic postures are associated with the advancement of the public interest and bureaucratic performance. A main conclusion is that, although limited in scope of application, each stream has merit. Nonetheless, the existing research is too narrow: The field needs to consider a more complex model of bureaucratic behavior that draws from these four fields to offer a framework that is widely applicable to the range of motives for work found in the public bureaucracy and the variety of behaviors that individuals exhibit. Some attributes that may characterize such a model are sketched out.     

“The Higher You Fly,the Further You Fall”: White-Collar Criminals, “Special Sensitivity” and the Impact of Conviction in the United Kingdom

The resilience of some high-profile white-collar criminals in the media gaze after prison may lead some to conclude, particularly as some research also supports this notion, that this group of offenders generally manages well after conviction. Research in this area is, however, small and largely American. The authors seek to add to this small body of research by offering findings on the impact of conviction on 17 UK convicted white-collar criminals after completion of their sentence. It provides a unique insight into the consequences of conviction, showing that although there were some offenders who did experience limited impact and coped well, there was also a significant group who suffered a decline in status, financial losses, negative media coverage, and relationship and mental health problems, to name some. The authors argue more research is needed on this group and their needs as they are often neglected by the criminal justice system.     

Urban youth under stress: Empirical identification of protective factors

Explored the influence of life stress as mediated or moderated by locus of control, family environment, social support, and coping style on psychological adjustment and school performance in 164 ninth graders from Baltimore. Gender differences in findings were shown. For boys, family cohesion was the only variable found to protect against the effects of stress. Family cohesion did not serve protective functions for girls, and along with overall social support, was associated with increased vulnerability to school problems. The report of problem-focused coping strategies exerted a number of protective functions for girls only. External locus of control was found to increase boys' and girls' vulnerability to the effects of life stress. Empirical development of interventions to improve the psychosocial adjustment of inner-city adolescents is discussed.Received Ph.D. from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in 1991. Research interests include evaluation of school mental health services, empirical development of interventions for children, and the impact of violence on urban youth.Received B.A. from Cornell University. Interests include stress and coping in children, identification of resilience factors, and evaluation of child mental health systems of care.Received Ph.D. from the University of Oklahoma in 1967. Research interests include psychophysiology, sleep disorders, and biofeedback and instrumentation.Received B.A. from Loyola College. Interested in applied work with adolescents and adults.Received M.D. from Duke University in 1968. Research interests include training in child and adolescent psychiatry, adolescent psychopathology, and the development of school mental health programs.     

Public Management Reform: Competing Drivers of Change

Public management reforms often are portrayed as part of a global wave of change, and all organizational change is interpreted within a single reform paradigm that is rooted in economics and market–based principles. Reforms outside this paradigm go unnoticed. This article examines the assertion that different drivers of change competing with the dominant focus of management discourse remain present and influence the direction of reform. It presents three alternative drivers of change rooted in normative values and provides evidence of their relevance from three national cases. Normative influences are reflected in a stream of activities occurring within the same time period in different civil service systems. The direction of public management practice cannot be seen as fully determined by any one approach to government reform or as traveling in only one direction. Understanding the balance among competing drivers of change is a key to interpreting both contemporary and future administrative reform.