Sexual recidivism: A review of static,dynamic and actuarial predictors

The need for accurate risk assessment of sexual offence recidivism has never been greater. It is widely accepted that actuarial risk instruments outperform clinical judgement and the literature has recently witnessed a surge of empirically derived actuarial measures. However, in spite of the increased levels of predictive accuracy, actuarial measures have been criticized as being unrepresentative, lacking specificity, and being heavily reliant on static risk factors without taking into account dynamic risk, psychological emotional states and treatment effects. Rather than offering a critique of the actuarial movement, this paper offers a summary of static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism as identified from the literature. Implications of incorporating dynamic factors into risk assessments and actuarial measures are discussed.     

Visa Diplomacy

The consular element of national diplomatic power plays an essential, but often overlooked role in international relations. This is unfortunate, since the process of globalization places increasing importance on so-called “low politics”—trade, commerce, tourism, migration—all traditional consular areas of interest. This study examines the visa component of consular diplomacy as an integral device in the conduct of international relations. The simple visa serves an important purpose in international relations and is a well-used, but little studied, instrument of foreign policy in today's system of sovereign states.

In this article, “visa diplomacy” is defined as the use of visa issuance or denial at an individual, group, and interstate level, to influence another state's policies. Although possessing limitations, visa diplomacy is an available signaling and retorsion instrument which makes it a viable policy option in the arena of international affairs. At the operative level, it links an individual or group to its sovereign country and respective national policies. Denial or issuance at the individual or group level can have outcomes on overall interstate interactions as illustrated in the cases selected for this study. The conclusion assesses where the use of visa diplomacy seems most effective in international relations.     

IMPRACTICAL RECONCILIATION

This article examines the events and texts of the Huggins–Bell debate, in view of the revival of Bell's ‘everyone's business’ position in the current context of the Northern Territory Intervention. I argue that while there are disjunctures between the position Bell espoused and the measures taken in the Intervention, the Intervention's policy approach of ‘practical reconciliation’ shares the signature features of Bell's position. As in Bell's work, the discourses supporting the Intervention use an ideology/practice binary to defend the morality of intervention, refuse to treat issues of lateral violence and racism intersectionally, and claim to bolster the authority of Indigenous women while in practice undermining that authority.     

Comparing sex offender risk assessment measures on a UK sample

The purpose of this study on 139 sex offenders was to consider the application of six measures of risk: Static-99, SACJ-Min (Structured Anchored Clinical Judgment Scale-Minimum), RRASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offence Recidivism), Risk Matrix 2000-Sexual/Violent, and SVR-20 (Sexual Violence Risk-20) and to compare risk assessments conducted by a Regional Secure Unit (RSU) and the Probation Service. Levels of risk for the RSU sample ranged from 1% to 42% low risk to 1% to 66% high risk compared with the Probation sample of 8% to 43% low risk to 4% to 70% high risk. Offenders with adult victims obtained significantly higher scores using the RM2000/S and SACJ-Min than did those with child victims who obtained significantly higher scores on the RRASOR. Sex offenders referred to a RSU scored significantly higher on RRASOR and RM2000/S than did sex offenders supervised by the Probation Service. Forensic practitioners may be better served if risk measures assess specific subcategories of sexual offenders.     

The environment as a strategic priority in the European Union–Brazil partnership: is the EU behaving as a normative power or soft imperialist?

In 2007, Brazil entered the European Union’s (EU) list of strategic partners; a token of recognition of the place Brazil occupies in current global affairs. Although promoting bilateral environmental convergence is a stated priority, cooperation between the EU and Brazil in this policy field is largely under-researched, raising interesting questions as to whether the current state of play could support EU claims for the normative orientation of its external environmental policy. Through an analysis of partnership activities in the fields of deforestation and biofuels, we suggest that while normative intentions may be regarded as a motivating force, critically viewing EU foreign environmental policy through a ‘soft imperialism’ lens could offer a more holistic understanding of the current state of bilateral cooperation. While the normative power thesis can be substantiated with regard to deforestation, we argue that by erecting barriers to shield its domestic biofuels production, the EU is placing trade competitiveness and economic growth above its normative aspirations. Subsequently, the partial adoption of sustainable development as an EU norm leads to policy incoherence and contradictory actions.     

J. R. Winkler,Nexus. Strategic Communications and American Security in World War I

Microstates are unique participants in the international arena. Many of the world's microstates are located in the Pacific basin and are characterized by limited natural and human resources. Because they are so small and isolated, the Pacific microstates are frequently overlooked diplomatically in the larger, international system. Conversely, diplomacy is often their only effective instrument of statecraft for making an impact within the international system on issues critical to their national interests.

In contrast to the belief that the microstates are mere pawns in international relations, this text will view the Pacific microstates as active participants in diplomacy by exploring their involvement in two broad strands of Pacific Rim diplomacy: ? The political struggle between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan for influence in the Pacific region, diplomatic recognition, and support in the United Nations and other international agencies.

? Fishing issues between Japan, the microstates, and other regional powers as illustrated within the International Whaling Commission.

The article will show that reciprocity is the key concept and mechanism governing their diplomatic arrangements with Taiwan and Japan. The conclusion suggests two ideas for these microstates in dealing with their larger neighbors on the above issues, and summarizes their active, rather than passive, diplomatic role in Pacific Rim international relations.     

A comparative analysis of Inspector responses to complaints about psychosocial and physical hazards

Work Health and Safety Inspectors are at the forefront of efforts to protect workers from harm from psychosocial hazards, yet the application of regulatory theory to their practice has been limited. Drawing on models of responsive regulation and strategic enforcement, we analyze extensive (N = 46,348) complaint and incident notification data from an Australian Work Health and Safety Inspectorate, to compare Inspectors' responses to psychosocial versus non-psychosocial hazards. We found psychosocial hazards were less likely to be actioned than non-psychosocial hazards. When they were actioned, psychosocial hazards saw more Inspector activity, but fewer enforcement notices than non-psychosocial hazards. These findings are inconsistent with the version of responsive regulation espoused by the regulator. Our theoretical conclusion is that Weil's strategic enforcement approach is likely to offer greater possibilities for guiding future resource allocation.     

Explaining fear of crime in Queensland

A model to explain fear of crime in Queensland is developed and fitted to data from the 1991 Queensland Crime Victims Survey. Fear of crime is measured from the answers to the question about respondents' feelings of safety when walking alone in their area after dark. The results suggest that factors such as gender, age, poverty, educational level, labor force status, level of incivility in the area, perceived amount of crime in the area, and neighborhood cohesion all make an impact on fear of crime in a way that is consistent with the theory. The results also show that fear of crimein Queensland is explained by very concrete factors that can be subject to intervention and policy formulation by relevant bodies.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government Statistician's Office or the Queensland Government.