A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election

Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany (‘benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe – France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election.     

Asia is Taking a Hard Look: University-Foreign Company Relations in China1

In this paper we approach the topic of modernization and industrialization of Asian economies by exploring the value of economic sociology for a network analysis on micro economical level. In this context we will discuss whether the role of transnational companies in technology transfer is changing due to a competition strategy in a knowledge based society. For the Chinese case we show how a corporate policy that strives for a comparative advantage in organizational knowledge of a specific market coincides with a modernization and industrialization policy carried out by the Chinese government. This interdependency results in a distinct structure of corporate public networking on regional level. We discuss whether this kind of regional networking is specific for a successful strategy to modernize newly industrializing countries.     

COMPETITION POLICY WITH OPTIMALLY DIFFERENTIATED RULES INSTEAD OF "PER SE RULES VS RULE OF REASON"

Both in U.S. antitrust and EU competition policy, a developmentto a broader application of rule of reason instead of per serules can be observed. In the European discussion the attemptto base competition policy on a "more economic approach" ismainly viewed as improving the economic analysis in the assessmentof specific cases. In this paper it is shown from a generallaw and economics perspective that the application of rulesinstead of focussing on case-by-case analyses can have manyadvantages (lower regulation costs, rent-seeking, and knowledgeproblems), although an additional differentiation of rules througha deeper assessment can also have advantages in regard to thereduction of decision errors of type I and II. After introducingthe notion of a continuum of more or less differentiated rules,we show—based upon law and economics literature upon theoptimal complexity of rules—in a simple model that a competitionrule is optimally differentiated if the marginal reduction ofthe sum of error costs (as the marginal benefit of differentiation)equals the marginal costs of differentiation. This model alsoallows for a more detailed analysis of the most important determinantsof the optimal degree of rule-differentiation. From this lawand economics perspective, competition policy should consistmainly of (more or less differentiated) rules and should onlyrarely rely on case-by-case analysis. Therefore the main taskof a "more economic approach" is to use economics for the formulationof appropriate competition rules.     

How governments strategically time welfare state reform legislation: empirical evidence from five European countries

Abstract

Building on studies on the political business cycle, the literature on welfare state retrenchment has argued that governments which cut the welfare state try to avoid blame by implementing painful measures in the beginning of the mandate and expanding benefits as elections approach. In contrast to this linear relationship, this article argues that governments often feel pressured to fulfil (mostly expansionary) campaign promises during the first months in office. Consequently, cutting right away is not what should be expected. Instead, a more nuanced, U-shaped timing trajectory is probable with a period in the beginning characterised by both cuts and fulfilment of expansionary pledges, followed by a period of cutbacks, and finally an expansive phase towards the end of a mandate. This argument is tested on our new original dataset of legislative changes in five European countries – Britain, Denmark, Finland, France and Germany – during the last four decades.     

Credibility,Complexity and Uncertainty: Explaining the Institutional Independence of 29 EU Agencies

The delegation of policy-making tasks to EU agencies and their remarkable growth in number over the past two decades mark a striking new development in the EU's institutional make-up. While most of the nascent literature on the EU's ‘agencification’ addresses the conditions for agency creation and the implications of agency governance from the perspective of democratic accountability, there is a lack of empirical research systematically scrutinising the institutional structure and degree of formal-institutional independence of these agencies. This article offers a comprehensive empirical assessment and measure of the variation in institutional independence displayed by the entire set of 29 EU agencies operating under the EU's three pillars and tests hypotheses explaining variation in formal independence among agencies.     

The making of plasma medicine. Strategy driven clusters and the emerging roles of cluster management and government supervision

In this paper we discuss the new generation of German innovation clusters as a model that reflects the paradigm of a supervising and even entrepreneurial role of government. The model evolves alongside a predominant programmatic design that postulates strategy driven clusters or virtual regional organizations consisting out of research laboratories, university departments, and SME. The cluster design implicates the management of strategic implementation, alignments, and the settlement of conflicts as well as the enabling of trust formation. The findings outlined in this paper draw on action research and expert interviews, carried out at the German cluster Campus PlasmaMed 2008–2011 and with stakeholders. The analyzed cluster is funded by German Ministry of Education and Research, BMBF Innovation und State of the Art Research in the New Bundeslander which stands in the tradition of the Entrepreneurial Regions’ Program. The backbone of our research is the cluster’s strategy to develop the interdisciplinary science plasma medicine, a hybrid of low temperature plasma physics and life sciences and to market innovative PlasmaMed products. Innovation policies, programmatic designs, and evolving cluster management schemes are discussed regarding their significance in fostering the current cluster paradigm in German federal science policy. We outline the relevant factors for a transformation of trust-based scientific networks into strategy driven clusters or virtual organisations and provide new criteria for government intervention.     

Forensic analysis of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) by HPLC--statistics and extreme CDT values

Background

Carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) is the most specific serum marker of chronic alcohol abuse so far. There is little knowledge about extreme CDT values of >20% and the more >30% CDT.

Methods

Serum CDT/transferrin ratios from 19,236 serum samples sent to our laboratory for routine CDT analysis were determined by HPLC. About 75% of these serum samples were from traffic or employment medicine investigations. A CDT value frequency histogram was computed and extreme CDT values were clinically validated.

Results

Fourteen thousand four hundred and sixty-one CDT results were normal (≤1.7%) and 4775 increased (1.8–36.9% CDT). Most frequent normal and increased results were 0.9% CDT (n = 1964) and 1.8% CDT (n = 356). CA. 70% of the pathological results were between 1.8% and 5.0% CDT, ca. 88% between 1.8% and 10.0% CDT, and 98% between 1.8% and 20.0%. CDT values >20.0% appeared in 79 cases and results >30.0% in two cases (33.8% and 36.9%). In each case of CDT values >20%, chronic alcohol abuse was the underlying cause as confirmed by anamnestic exploration.

Conclusions

CDT/transferrin ratios are usually <20%. Higher values can appear in rare cases. CDT results >30% can be due to alcohol abuse but should be considered as remarkable single observations. Visualization of the transferrin isoform patterns by HPLC allows the detection of pathological transferrin isoform patterns and of genetic transferrin variants. This is essential for a reliable interpretation of (extreme) CDT values. CDT analysis by immunoassays without physico-chemical confirmatory analysis is no longer acceptable.