Managing Regulatory Risks and Defining the Parameters of Blame: A Focus on the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority

Risk-based regulation is a new arrival in the lexicon of risk and regulation. Regulators in Australia, Canada, and the UK have begun developing systems and processes to assess the probability and impact of compliance failures by regulated firms, and to adjust their relationship with firms accordingly. This article explores the motivations for, and key elements of, the risk-based frameworks of one of those regulators, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). It broadens out from this case study to argue first, that risk-based regulation goes hand in hand with the technique of "meta" regulation, the regulation of the firm's own internal self regulation, and will both fuel and be fueled by any trend towards the latter. Second, it argues that risk-based frameworks are not risk-free: whilst they seek to manage risks they inevitably introduce their own. Third, risk-based regulatory frameworks have the potential both to expose and obscure key sociopolitical and socioeconomic choices as to the amount or types of regulatory failures that an agency will tolerate, and which in effect it is requiring society to tolerate. "Risk based frameworks" are attempt to define what are acceptable "failures" and what are not, and thus to define the parameters of blame.     

Can the Democrats Win Again?

After losing two successive elections, debate has raged within the Democratic party over how to win back power without comprising the principles which the party has long stood for. This article explores the reasons why the Democrats were unable to defeat George W. Bush in 2004, despite the numerous problems of the incumbent' first term, and asks what lessons the Democrats can learn from their defeat. The second half of the article focuses on what issues and policies the Democrats should concentrate and what strategies the party should adopt in order to improve its image and broaden its popular appeal ahead of the 2008 election.     

Are moderate parties rewarded in multiparty systems? A pooled analysis of Western European elections, 1984–1998

Abstract.   We present cross-national analyses – both cross-sectional and longitudinal – estimating the vote shares for approximately 80 parties across Western Europe from 1984 to 1998. The results indicate that parties' vote shares increase with their proximity to the centre of the voter distribution, although the effects are relatively small. These findings corroborate the theoretical results reported by Lin et al. in their article 'Equilibrium in Multicandidate Probabilistic Spatial Voting' ( Public Choice , Vol. 98, pp. 59–82), and provide support for conclusions reported by other authors who rely on simulations of individual-level data from national election surveys.     

Beyond the micro/macro distinction

Abstract. Discrepant findings in electoral studies, particularly in relation to the importance of class, have re-opened the issue of micro- versus macro-levels of analysis. The 'ecological' and 'individualist' fallacies are again the subject of discussion. This article considers how similar issues arise in other sciences, natural as well as social, and shows how in many cases they are not resolved but lead to the development of sub-sciences. It argues that beyond the micro/macro distinction lies another, that between 'molecular' and 'structural' approaches, which exist in parallel in most sciences. The corresponding types of data - aggregate and integral - are found at both levels of analysis. Thus we have to contend not with two distinct types of data, but with four: micro- and macro-molecular, and micro- and macro-structural. In electoral studies, as well as 'individual' and 'ecological', there are also 'personal' and 'structural' types of data to be considered, though the latter have largely been neglected in recent times. Drawing valid inferences between any two types of data is difficult. Even if fallacies are avoided, intractable problems may remain. On the experience of other sciences, electoral studies may well continue to develop along parallel but in some ways discrepant lines.     

A problem with empirical studies of party policy shifts: Alternative measures of party shifts are uncorrelated

Many recent cross-national studies analyse the causes and electoral consequences of party policy shifts, using party position measures derived from election manifestos, expert surveys or voter surveys. However few studies validate their findings by analysing multiple measures of party policy shifts. In this article, data on European parties’ position shifts on both European integration and left-right ideology is analysed, showing that this is problematic because, while alternative measures of party policy positions correlate strongly in cross-sectional analyses, alternative measures of parties’ policy shifts are essentially uncorrelated in longitudinal analyses. Suggestions are offered on how to address this problem.     

The Savings and Loan Debacle of the 1980s: White-Collar Crime or Risky Business?*

This paper examines the role of white-collar crime in the savings and loan crisis. Noting economists' assertions that crime was only a minor ingredient in the crisis, we compare the explanatory power of this “minimal fraud” model to that of its “material fraud” alternative. Bringing together evidence from every major study of thrifts in the 1980s, we argue that only the material fraud hypothesis can make sense of these data. This study demonstrates the utility of deductive reasoning in distinguishing between white-collar crime and ordinary business transactions, thereby potentially contributing to prosecutorial efforts, and helping resolve long-standing methodological dilemmas confronting white-collar criminologists.