Developmental Antecedents of Interpartner Violence in a New Zealand Birth Cohort

This paper examines the developmental antecedents of interpartner violence (IPV) victimization and perpetration in a New Zealand birth cohort (n = 828). The study found: (a) IPV occurred in 70% of relationships, with conflict ranging from minor psychological abuse to severe assault; (b) men and women reported similar experiences of victimization and perpetration of IPV; (c) exposure to abuse in childhood, family dysfunction and adversity, childhood and adolescent conduct problems, and alcohol abuse/dependence were significant predictors of IPV victimization and perpetration at age 25; and (d) the antecedents of IPV were largely the same for males and females, although the specific effects of these risk factors differed according to gender. Conduct disorder was more strongly predictive of IPV for females, whereas family adversity was more strongly predictive of IPV victimisation for males.     

The Crime Kuznets Curve

Objectives

Criminologists have long studied the relationship between economic conditions and crime. Empirical evidence is inconclusive, pointing at different directions. This may reflect the conflicting theoretical predictions on the relationship between these phenomena, but also the prevailing methodological choice which focuses on linear relationships even though nonlinearities are plausible theoretically.

Methods

In this paper, we revisit the empirical relationship between economic conditions and crime by exploring potential nonlinearities. We look at flexible parametric specifications that include up to a cubic term of per capita income (or one dummy for each income quintile) and nonparametric and semi-parametric specifications (such as General Additive Models). Our results are robust to controlling for the standard socioeconomic, demographic, and policy determinants of crime, as well as to including a lagged dependent variable or state and time fixed effects.

Results

We document the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between crime and income within US states for the period 1970-2011. Crime increases with per capita income until it reaches a maximum, and then decreases as income keeps rising. This “Crime Kuznets Curve” (CKC) exists for property crime and for categories of violent crime that can be related to economic appropriation, like robbery, and is less robust for violent crimes not connected to economic incentives. We show that this pattern cannot be explained by correlated changes in economic inequality or by changes in law enforcement.

Conclusions

In addition to providing robust evidence of the existence of a CKC, our findings lay the groundwork for studies exploring the underlying theoretical mechanisms. These should go beyond income inequality or law enforcement, and should explain why the results hold more clearly for property than for violent crime. Our findings and subsequent research to understand the underlying drivers are relevant for policy, as they suggest that violent conflict cannot be tackled solely by the trickle-down forces of economic growth.

     

Unemployment and suicidal behavior in a New Zealand birth cohort: a fixed effects regression analysis

This study examined the association between exposure to unemployment and suicidal behaviors (suicidal ideation and attempted suicide) in a birth cohort of New Zealand young adults using fixed-effects logistic and Poisson regression models. Data were gathered on unemployment and suicidal behaviors at annual periods from ages 16-25 years. At all ages increasing exposure to unemployment was associated with increased risks of suicidal ideation (p < .0001) and number of suicide attempts (p < .0001). Following adjustment for fixed effects and time-dynamic covariates, associations between unemployment and suicidal ideation reduced to marginal significance (p < .10), while the association between unemployment and suicide attempts was not statistically significant (p > .10). After adjustment, those experiencing 6 or more months of unemployment in a given year had odds of suicidal ideation that were 1.43 (95% CI: .96 to 2.16) times higher, and rates of suicide attempts that were 1.72 (95% CI: .89 to 3.32) times higher, than those who were not exposed to unemployment. Although unemployment was associated with moderate increases in risks of suicidal behaviors, much of this association was explained by confounding factors.     

The Real Winner's Curse

Traditional theories of democracy suggest that political representation of excluded groups can reduce their incentives to engage in conflict and lead to lower violence. However, this argument ignores the response of established elites when (1) their interests are threatened by the policy stance of new political actors and (2) elites have a comparative advantage in the exercise of violence. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we show that the narrow election of previously excluded left‐wing parties to local executive office in Colombia results in a one standard deviation increase in violent events by right‐wing paramilitaries. We interpret this surge in violence as a reaction of traditional elites to offset the increase in outsiders' access to formal political power. Consistent with this interpretation, we find that violence by left‐wing guerrillas and other actors is unaffected and that violence is not influenced by the victory of right‐wing or other new parties in close elections.     

Public service privatisation and crisis in Argentina

This article discusses the privatisation of public services in Argentina in light of the severe crisis that afflicted the country between 1999 and 2002. An inadequate regulatory framework and the absence of effective regulatory agencies resulted in the exercise of monopolistic power over public service fees. The emergence of a series of external shocks, starting in 1997 with the SE Asia crisis, weakened the country's external accounts. In the context of a strict fixed exchange-rate regime, rising public service fees and overseas obligations contracted by the privatised firms placed growing pressure on the balance of payments. Although privatised firms were not directly responsible for the four-year recession or the balance-of-payments crisis, their actions contributed to the onset and prolongation of the difficulties faced by Argentina.     

Young People,Antisocial Behavior and Unemployment: Toward a Trans-Disciplinary Analysis of Criminalization

Critical Criminology - This article considers the diverse use of the concept of criminalization in criminological and socio-legal analyses, the meanings attached to it, and the differentiated modes...