Judicial Behavior and Public Opinion: Popular Expectations Regarding the Factors That Influence Supreme Court Decisions

This article examines the mass public's perceptions of the factors that actually influence Supreme Court decisions as well those that ought to influence such decisions. We expect significant discrepancies between what the public believes ought to be the case and what it perceives to actually be the case with regard to Supreme Court decision making and that these discrepancies have a significant negative impact on the public's assessment of the Court. More specifically, we hypothesize that the public believes that political factors have more influence on the Court than ought to be the case and that the public perceives traditional legal factors to be less influential than they should be. We find that the expected discrepancies do exist and significantly detract from popular regard for the Court.     

Assessing political support in China: Citizens’ evaluations of governmental effectiveness and legitimacy

Whether the Chinese Communist regime can maintain socio‐political stability and survive the potentially turbulent transition to the post‐Deng Xiaoping era remains a serious question challenging many China watchers. Assuming that political support is vital to the stability of any regime, the authors seek to answer this question by examining two major components of political support, instrumental support (citizens’ evaluations of governmental effectiveness) and affective support (citizens’ evaluations of governmental legitimacy). Using data collected from a public opinion survey conducted in Beijing, China in late 1995, this study explores the levels of both affective support and instrumental support, and the nature of the relationship between these two types of political support in China today. The results of this study show that: (1) the current Chinese regime enjoys a moderately high level of affective support and a slightly lower level of instrumental support; (2) the two types of political support are moderately correlated; and (3) the relationship between these two types of support persists across key demographic groups. Based on these results, the authors conclude that the current Chinese leadership has a good chance to maintain political stability in the post‐Deng era, while it will face severe challenges in substantially upgrading its current level of legitimacy by solely relying upon improvements in governmental effectiveness in the short term.     

Reassessing the “freshman effect”: The voting bloc alignment of new justices on the United States Supreme Court, 1921–90

Part of the conventional wisdom about the United States Supreme Court is the presumed existence of a freshman effect, a distinct pattern of behavior thought to be associated with newly appointed justices. Among other things, freshman justices are thought to be less likely than their senior colleagues to vote with established ideological blocs on the Court. The empirical evidence for the freshman effect in voting on the Court is somewhat ambiguous, however. In order to test for a freshman effect in the voting behavior of new justices on the Supreme Court, we examined the behavior of all justices on the Court between 1921 and 1990. Voting blocs were determined from the justices' interagreement scores, using the widely employed criterion developed by Sprague (1968). We found no evidence of a freshman effect during the time frame under study. Freshman justices do not differ from their senior colleagues with respect to bloc voting. We conclude that the freshman effect hypothesis is erroneous, at least with respect to the supposed nonalignment behavior of neophyte justices.