IS AGE IMPORTANT? TESTING A GENERAL VERSUS A DEVELOPMENTAL THEORY OF ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOR*

We tested competing hypotheses derived from Gottfredson and Hirschis (1990) general theory and Moffitt's (1993a) developmental theory of antisocial behavior. The developmental theory argues that different factors give rise to antisocial behavior at different points in the life course. In contrast, the general theory maintains that the factor underlying antisocial behavior (i.e., criminal propensity) is the same at all ages. To test these competing predictions, we used longitudinal data spanning from age 5 to age 18 for the male subjects in the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study. Using reports from three sources (parents, teachers, and the boys themselves), we estimated second-order confirmatory factor models of antisocial behavior. These models provided consistent support for the developmental theory, showing that separate latent factors underlie childhood and adolescent antisocial behavior. Moreover, we found that these childhood and adolescent factors related in ways predicted by Moffitt's developmental theory to four correlates of antisocial behavior: Childhood antisocial behavior was related more strongly than adolescent antisocial behavior to low verbal ability, by per activity, and negative/impulsive personality, whereas adolescent antisocial behavior was related more strongly than childhood antisocial behavior to peer delinquency. The two underlying latent factors also showed the predicted differential relations to later criminal convictions: Childhood antisocial behavior was significantly more strongly associated with convictions for violence, while adolescent antisocial behavior was significantly more strongly associated with convictions for nonviolent offenses.     

Le Parlement en temps de crises politiques dans le royaume de Portugal (XIV-XVe siècles)

SUMMARY

This article focuses on the role of the Cortes in the course of two decisive moments of the Portuguese monarchy: the choice of a king on the one hand and the decision to accept a regency on the other. The Cortes of Coimbra (1385) are first analysed in the context of the political events that preceded them, in terms of the novelty of being summoned by the social forces of the kingdom, and in terms of their ideology and innovative measures. As a result, a king was chosen—King John I, the founder of the House of Avis—and reforms of a noticeable ‘constituent’ tendency were proposed. Attention is then focused on the Cortes of Lisbon (1439), which were equally unusual in their summoning and performance. There, it was decided that the infant Don Pedro, brother to the late king Don Duarte, would be in charge of the regency while the heir to the throne, Don Afonso V, was not yet of age. This prevented the queen from occupying the role the monarch had intended for her. In both cases these Cortes are very special given that they legitimated revolutionary acts which had previously taken place. This behaviour reinforces the idea that by comparison with other kingdoms in the Iberian Peninsula, the Portuguese Cortes had a strong leadership role in moments of political crisis and in the assertion of the power and social formation of the monarchy.     

母鼠妊娠期铅镉联合暴露对仔鼠脑组织的氧化损伤及乙酰半胱氨酸的保护效应

45只怀孕SD母鼠被随机分为9组,即A组(对照组,饮用蒸馏水)、B组(铅组,300 mg/L)、C组[铅 N-乙酰半胱氨酸(N-NAC)组,300 mg/L 20 mmol/L]、D组(镉组,10 mg/L)、E组(镉 NAC组,10mg/L 20 mmol/L)、F组(低剂量铅镉联合组,150 mg/L 5 mg/L)、G组(低剂量铅镉联合 NAC组,150mg/L 5 mg/L 20 mmol/L)、H组(高剂量铅镉联合组,300 mg/L 10 mg/L)、Ⅰ组(高剂量铅镉联合 NAC组,300 mg/L 10 mg/L 20 mmol/L).采用饮水染毒,染毒时间为21 d,分娩后每窝随机选取6只乳鼠测定脑匀浆超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)、谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(GSH-Px)、乙酰胆碱酯酶(TChE)活性和丙二醛(MDA)的含量.结果表明,低剂量铅镉联合作用具有中间效应(介于铅、镉单独毒性作用之间),而高剂量铅镉联合作用表现协同或叠加效应.NAC拮抗组与染毒组比较,MDA含量显著降低,SOD、GSH-Px、TChE、CAT活性有升高趋势,说明NAC可以提高大鼠的抗氧化能力,对母鼠铅镉暴露所致新生鼠脑脂质过氧化损伤有一定的保护作用.     

RECONSIDERING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SES AND DELINQUENCY: CAUSATION BUT NOT CORRELATION*

Many theories of crime have linked low levels of socioeconomic status (SES) to high levels of delinquency. However, empirical studies have consistently found weak or nonexistent correlations between individuals' SES and their self-reported delinquent behavior. Drawing upon recent theoretical innovations (Hagan et al., 1985; Jensen, 1993; Tittle, 1995), we propose that this apparent contradiction between theory and data may be reconciled by recognizing that SES has both a negative and a positive indirect effect upon delinquency that, in tandem, results in little overall correlation between the two. We tested this proposal with longitudinal data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study. We used measures of parental SES recorded at study members' birth through age 15, social-psychological characteristics at age 18, and self-reported delinquency at ages 18 and 21. We found that low SES promoted delinquency by increasing individuals' alienation, financial strain, and aggression and by decreasing educational and occupational aspirations, whereas high SES promoted individuals' delinquency by increasing risk taking and social power and by decreasing conventional values. These findings suggest a reconciliation between theory and data, and they underscore the conceptual importance of elucidating the full range of causal linkages between SES and delinquency.     

ARE SOME PEOPLE CRIME-PRONE? REPLICATIONS OF THE PERSONALITY-CRIME RELATIONSHIP ACROSS COUNTRIES,GENDERS, RACES,AND METHODS*

We examined the relation between personality traits and crime in two studies. In New Zealand we studied 18-year-old males and females from an entire birth cohort. In Pittsburgh we studied an ethnically diverse group of 12- and 13-year-old boys. In both studies we gathered multiple and independent measures of personality and delinquent involvement. The personality correlates of delinquency were robust in different nations, in different age cohorts, across gender, and across race: greater delinquent participation was associated with a personality configuration characterized by high Negative Emotionality and weak Constraint. We suggest that when Negative Emotionality (the tendency to experience aversive affective states) is accompanied by weak Constraint (difficulty in impulse control), negative emotions may be translated more readily into antisocial acts. We review additional evidence about the developmental origins and consequences of this personality configuration and discuss its implications for theories about antisocial behavior.     

A Fossilised Constitution?

Abstract.  The purpose of this paper is to analyse the limits of constitutional reform. Some constitutions, for example, the German (art. 79, sec. 3), the Italian (art. 139), the Portuguese (art. 288), the French (art. 89, sec. 5), and the Brazilian (art. 60, sec. 4), contain an "essential core" of rights, which is usually understood as being immune to change. The initial focus in the paper is on the discussion on whether and to what extent these "essential cores" are indeed immune to change. A second focus is on Ross's paradox. Here I analyse and reject Ross's own solution to the paradox and I show, too, that the paradox admits no solution that does not imply a discontinuity in the legal system.     

TRENDS IN FEMALE DELINQUENCY

National arrest statistics combined with juvenile court, self-report, and field observational data are used to evaluate current conceptions of the changing nature of female delinquency. Adolescent females made arrest gains in the categories of larceny (e.g., shoplifting). liquor law violations (e.g. underage drinking), and runaways. Studies of juvenile gangs show no increase in female violence or gang-related delinquencies while self-report data show that, with the exception of marijuana use and drinking, female delinquency has remained generally stable over the past decade. We conclude that patterns of female delinquency, especially as revealed in nonofficial sources of evidence, have changed very little in recent years and that female delinquency continues to reflect traditional sex roles. The evidence suggests that the Women's Movement has had little or no effect on female delinquency. At the end of the report. we suggest alternative views regarding female delinquency and the forces shaping it.     

Strategic voting and effective representation thresholds: Evidence from three Spanish general elections

The extent of strategic voting in the Spanish general elections of 2000, 2004 and 2008 is estimated using a new measure of strategic incentives suitable for proportional representation systems that avoids some of the problems associated with lagged variables. Strategic behaviour increased from 12 to 33 per cent of the electoral base of the United Left Party, the major victim of strategic defection. This estimate is a conservative one as elite mobilisation is controlled for in the constituencies, which is unusual in the literature on strategic voting that uses regression‐based methods.