论卡特政府时期美国全球战略发生历史性转变的内在根源(Ⅱ)

吉米·卡特是美国历史上少有的在执政期间真正有意致力于推动世界和平的总统之一。他为抑制美苏军备竞赛,裁减军备与缓和当时的国际紧张局势做出了不懈的努力。他的这些努力使他后来荣膺诺贝尔和平奖。然而,由于卡特的这种外交方针触犯了当时美国国内某些极端保守势力的利益,在国际上又遭到苏联霸权主义的扩张带来的冲击,使他在执政期间屡屡遭受外交政策上的挫折。分析美国外交政策史上这一特定时期的种种内在和外在的因果联系,对于我们今天更深入地了解美国外交政策的内在动因具有极为重要的参照意义。     

The Dilemma of Nuclear Disarmament: The Case of North Korea

ABSTRACT

The Hanoi summit between the US and North Korea failed not because of North Korea’s brinkmanship strategy or its miscalculation of the US position on the denuclearisation talks, but because of a fundamental issue: a dilemma of how much to yield in giving up its military capabilities to expedite the lifting of sanctions. The leadership in Pyongyang has concerns about the ‘deliverability’ of its promises to its domestic audience to ensure deterrence capabilities and economic recovery. The two-level game model explains why both sides keep minimising the range of options for the negotiations, increasing the risk that the talks will break down.     

When Protection Collapses: Post-Demobilization Trajectories of Violence

The implementation of peacebuilding activities, including the demobilization of non-state illegal actors, does not necessarily bring about a reduction in violence. While there are several theories that address the causes of persistent violence, there are few that adequately explain why rates of violence can rapidly increase in a post-demobilization context. Using the method of process tracing, this article explores the case of Córdoba Department, Colombia, where rates of violence have increased after the demobilization of paramilitary groups (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia [AUC]) in 2005. We argue that the AUC created and maintained a monopolistic illegal protection system during its years of operation, and this type of local order was able to contain violence. After demobilization, the protection system was disrupted and as a consequence, new competition between post-demobilization criminal organizations for existing illegal rents developed, petty crime became pervasive, and revenge killings spiked, thus contributing to increased rates of violence in the post-demobilization period. Our theory about the breakdown of protection finds support in other AUC-dominated regions of Colombia.     

Ceci n'est pas une…American nuclear weapon in Belgium

There is hardly anybody in Belgium who publicly defends the continued deployment of US tactical nuclear weapons on Belgian territory. The longer these weapons stay, the more the existing nuclear weapons policy and by extension North Atlantic Treaty Organization itself will be regarded as illegitimate. While one should not expect massive demonstrations similar to that at the beginning of the 1980s, the pressure to protest increases. By describing the different societal and political actors in Belgium and their respective views on the possible withdrawal of US tactical nuclear weapons, this article tries to explain the gap between policymakers and citizens on this issue. The main explanatory variables are a low-profile diplomatic culture and the lack of a strong link between the anti-nuclear movement and the political parties in power, resulting in the absence of political leaders at the governmental level, who clearly speak out in favor of withdrawal.     

A Nuclear-Free Middle East – Just Not in the Cards

A scheduled conference to promote a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East has renewed hopes for nuclear disarmament in this unstable region, if only innovative diplomacy could take advantage of the current shifts. However, a realistic assessment suggests that optimism is unwarranted. Fundamental strategic considerations related to Iran's nuclear program, Israel's atomic options, and the region's ingrate security architecture remain nearly insurmountable hurdles. Therefore, policymakers should focus first on attaining a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.     

On the study of legal order in future world systems

The disarmament of rival nations can only take place when all countries involved are made better off and a feasibility criterion is also satisfied. Disarmament is more probable when nations face a similar trade off in the acquisition of weapons, when developments in military capabilities can be speedily and accurately verified, and when the existing weapon systems are easily reproducible. A successful disarmament also requires that the speed of the disposition of arms be neither too fast nor too slow.     

国际关系结构变化与东盟国家逆裁军

两极冷战格局的解体和东盟国家自身经济实力的增强是导致东盟国家逆裁军的物质结构因素 ,而对海洋重要性认识的不断深化和联合国海洋法的生效是导致东盟国家逆裁军的意识结构因素。     

China's policies towards arms control and disarmament: From passive responding to active leading

This paper reviews the evolution of China's policies towards arms control and disarmament in the past four decades. In so doing it analyzes the major factors shaping policy development, highlights the new challenges that China now confronts in arms control and disarmament and advances a new agenda for China in the contemporary context.     

从朝鲜二度核试验透视《不扩散核武器条约》的缺陷

继2006年10月9日朝鲜宣布进行了首次核试验后,2009年5月25日,朝鲜突然宣布"成功进行第二次核试验",不计后果地挑战国际社会。朝核危机彰显了《不扩散核武器条约》的不足。虽然该条约在实现全面彻底核裁军、维护世界和平与安全的国际法制进程中具有划时代的意义,但条约也存在某些概念模糊不清、对非核武器缔约国的歧视、退出条款限制不够、国际原子能机构的核查权限等问题。要真正实现全面彻底防核扩散的目标,国际社会需要努力地对条约做出合理的修订和完善,倡导以条约为基础的多边合作。     

Going non-nuclear in the nuclear alliance: the Danish experience in NATO

Danish nuclear policy is at a crossroads. Looking back, Denmark's relationship to nuclear technology has been a difficult balancing act for successive governments, trying to soothe an anti-nuclear domestic sentiment on one side and the membership of a nuclear military alliance on the other. This history produced an enduring double approach to nuclear policy by Copenhagen throughout the cold war. Looking ahead, this history is of particular relevance as Denmark and Greenland are considering lifting their twenty-five-year ban on mining radioactive elements and allowing the production of Greenland's uranium. With Greenland's large reserves potentially catapulting this otherwise non-nuclear and non-mining kingdom into one of the world's top suppliers of uranium, the policy debate has to include a look back at Denmark's relationship to nuclear technology, for both peaceful and military purposes.