1989-2029年大转型——可以更好或将会更好吗?

本文对中东欧国家自1989年以来发生的后社会主义制度转型进行了理论和现实的阐释,考察了其历史特性,批驳了该地区已经在制度上成为完全成熟的市场经济体的论点,而认为中东欧国家在转型方面还有很长的路要走.文章强调,后社会主义市场转型进程不会呈直线型发展.在现实社会主义经济体的市场改革与后社会主义市场转型之间存在着巨大差异.只有在更加精确地确定目标,同时不是将制度转型当作是自我实现的目标的前提下,不同国家在不同程度上才会取得更好的转型绩效,否则会朝相反方向发展.     

INTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE IN YOUNG ADULTHOOD: NARRATIVES OF PERSISTENCE AND DESISTANCE

Prior research on patterns of intimate partner violence (IPV) has documented changes over time, but few studies have focused directly on IPV desistance processes. This analysis identifies unique features of IPV, providing a rationale for the focus on this form of behavior cessation. We develop a life‐course perspective on social learning as a conceptual framework and draw on qualitative interviews (n = 89) elicited from a sample of young adults who participated in a larger longitudinal study (Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study). The respondents’ backgrounds reflected a range of persistence and desistance from IPV perpetration. Our analyses revealed that relationship‐based motivations and changes were central features of the narratives of successful desisters, whether articulated as a stand‐alone theme or in tandem with other potential “hooks” for change. The analysis provides a counterpoint to individualistic views of desistance processes, highlighting ways in which social experiences foster attitude shifts and associated behavioral changes that respondents tied to this type of behavior change. The analyses of persisters and those for whom change seemed to be a work in progress provide points of contrast and highlight barriers that limit a respondent's desistance potential. We describe implications for theories of desistance as well as for IPV prevention and intervention efforts.     

Knowledge transfer to emerging markets via consulting projects

In recent years, development agencies (DAs) have focused their activities on consulting projects rather than on financing turnkey projects when assisting emerging markets. The main reason is that the implementation of consulting projects is likely to be connected with an intensive knowledge transfer from developed to emerging markets. Training of local employees and cooperation with local firms are necessary elements to make the transfer effective. The empirical statistics shows training and cooperation to be more frequent in consulting projects financed by DAs as compared to commercial projects. According to theory and experience, training should be included in projects in the least developed host countries, whereas local cooperation should be more frequent, the higher is the development level of the host country. However, DAs do not follow these rules of thumb in a convincing way. A policy implication of the paper is therefore that DAs should better organize and plan the contents of their consulting projects.

A Criminal Career Study of the Continuity and Discontinuity of Sex Offending during the Adolescence-Adulthood Transition: A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Incarcerated Youth

Longitudinal research has seriously challenged assumptions that juvenile sex offenders (JSO) are characterized by high level of dangerousness, mental health problems, and crime specialization in sex offenses. The current study examines the longitudinal pattern of offending among a sample of JSO and a sample of juvenile nonsex offenders. The research design includes longitudinal data over a nine-year period allowing the examination of offending patterns and the crime mix from age 12 to age 23. The findings highlight that, while JSO are prone to persist offending in adulthood, there is limited continuity of sex offending. Further, the findings stress the importance of taking into account nonsexual juvenile delinquency, more specifically, youth violence, to make a better assessment of early adult offending outcomes of JSO.     

Linking parental incarceration and family dynamics associated with intergenerational transmission: A life‐course perspective*

Children experiencing parental incarceration face numerous additional disadvantages, but researchers have often relied on these other co‐occurring factors primarily as controls. In this article, we focus on the intimate links between crime and incarceration, as well as on the broader family context within which parental incarceration often unfolds. Thus, parents’ drug use and criminal behavior that precedes and may follow incarceration periods may be ongoing stressors that directly affect child well‐being. We also use our analyses to foreground mechanisms associated with social learning theories, including observations and communications that increase the child's risk for criminal involvement and other problem outcomes. These related family experiences often channel the child's own developing network ties (peers, romantic partners) that then serve as proximal influences. We explore these processes by drawing on qualitative and quantitative data from a study of the lives of a sample of respondents followed from adolescence to young adulthood, as well as on records searches of parents’ incarceration histories. Through our analyses, we find evidence that 1) some effects attributed to parental incarceration likely connect to unmeasured features of the broader family context, and b) together parental incarceration and the broader climate often constitute a tightly coupled package of family‐related risks linked to intergenerational continuities in criminal behavior and other forms of social disadvantage.     

IS BEING “SPIRITUAL” ENOUGH WITHOUT BEING RELIGIOUS? A STUDY OF VIOLENT AND PROPERTY CRIMES AMONG EMERGING ADULTS

Although prior research has had a tendency to confirm a negative association between religiousness and crime, criminologists have been slow to incorporate new concepts and emergent issues from the scientific study of religion into their own research. The self‐identity phrase “spiritual but not religious” is one of them, which has been increasingly used by individuals who claim to be “spiritual” but disassociate themselves from organized religion. This study first examines differences in crime between “spiritual‐but‐not‐religious” individuals and their “religious‐and‐spiritual,” “religious‐but‐not‐spiritual,” and “neither‐religious‐nor‐spiritual” peers in emerging adulthood. Specifically, we hypothesize that the spiritual‐but‐not‐religious young adults are more prone to crime than their “religious” counterparts, while expecting them to be different from the “neither” group without specifying whether they are more or less crime prone. Second, the expected group differences in crime are hypothesized to be explained by the microcriminological theories of self‐control, social bonding, and general strain. Latent‐variable structural equation models were estimated separately for violent and property crimes using the third wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. The overall results tend to provide a partial support for the hypotheses. Implications for criminology and future research are discussed.     

Assessing the Health Behaviors of African American Emerging Adults

The purpose of this article was to assess the overall health behaviors of African American emerging adults who live in a Midwestern city. Two hundred participants, ages 18–25, completed a 129-item survey. Results indicate that African American emerging adults are engaged in relatively healthy behaviors (i.e., physical activity, low substance use). The results also showed that within the emerging adult developmental period, there are differences in behavior for those who are in the younger (18–20) versus those that are older (21–25) in the developmental period. Limitations, future research, and implications for practice will also be discussed.     

The OECD and “The Rest”: Analyzing the Limits of Policy Transfer

Abstract

Prompted by the rise of the emerging economies and the growing importance of the G20, the OECD has formally announced its intention of establishing itself as a key actor in global policy coordination. As part of this ambition, it has embarked on cultivating closer relations with five G20 countries it designated as key partners through the so-called “Enhanced Engagement” programme: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa. This article mobilizes concepts from the policy transfer literature to explain why the OECD’s attempts to increasingly involve all five countries in its policy have fallen short of its original ambitions, and also why the transfer of its policy work has been uneven across policy and country issue.     

The Role of Perceived Parental Knowledge on Emerging Adults’ Risk Behaviors

The purpose of this study was to gain a clearer understanding of the relation between parents’ knowledge of their emerging-adult children and emerging adults’ risk behaviors. Participants included 200 undergraduate students between the ages of 18 and 25 (121 women, 78 men; M _age = 19.59, SD = 1.62) and both of their parents. Results revealed that knowledge of the emerging-adult child’s activities varied as a function of parent- and child-reports, and that child outcomes associated with parental knowledge were generally positive, including less drinking, drug use, and risky sexual behavior (although this varied as a function of reporter). The links between maternal knowledge and lower drug and alcohol use were particularly strong in the presence of maternal closeness. Implications for understanding the parent–child relationship during the transition to adulthood were discussed.

Reciprocal relationships between symptoms of depression and parental support during the transition from adolescence to young adulthood

This study applies latent growth curve analysis to data from three waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (n = 10,828) and finds that symptoms of depression and social support interact with one another in a dynamic fashion across the transition from adolescence (mean age at Wave 1 = 15.28 years) to young adulthood (mean age at Wave 3 = 21.65 years). Parental support during adolescence is inversely associated with initial symptoms of depression for girls and boys, although adolescent girls with low levels of parental support begin the study period with significantly higher levels of depressive symptomatology than their male counterparts. In addition, adolescents who begin the study period with higher levels of depressive symptomatology report less parental support during young adulthood. Finally, regardless of their initial level of depressive symptoms, girls and boys who experience increased symptoms of depression over time also report lower levels of parental support at the end of the study period.