The link between social attitudes and voting propensities: Attitude-vote consistency among adolescents in Belgium

Research on the political development of adolescents is mainly focused on political engagement and attitudes. The more complex relationship between attitudes and voting behavior is less studied among citizens under the legal voting age. We investigate whether there is a link between social attitudes and voting propensities among Flemish adolescents, using data from the Parent–Child Socialization Study 2012. We observe attitude-vote consistency for three Flemish parties with a clear-cut ideological profile – the Green, radical rightist and Flemish Nationalist party. Findings show that adolescents' attitude-vote consistency is reinforced by their level of political sophistication. The correspondence between social attitudes and vote choice, however, is not impressive and significantly lower than among experienced adults, leaving room for other influential factors.     

REASSESSING RACE DISPARITIES IN MARYLAND CAPITAL CASES*

A generation of research studies that were conducted in multiple states and covered different time periods has found evidence that individuals who kill white victims encounter a greater risk of facing the death penalty than killers of black victims. More recently, research has also examined the likelihood of death penalty processing for black defendants who kill white victims in comparison with other defendant–victim race groups. In particular, a study in Maryland conducted by Paternoster et al. (2003) found evidence that offenders in black defendant–white victim cases were more likely to be death noticed by prosecutors and to receive a death sentence than other offenders. A recent analysis by Berk, Li, and Hickman (2005) raised questions about some of these findings. In this article, we conduct new analyses and conclude that black defendants who kill white victims face a greater risk of adverse treatment than other types of defendants.     

SELF‐CONTROL,SOCIAL BONDS,AND DESISTANCE: A TEST OF LIFE‐COURSE INTERDEPENDENCE

Theoretical debates and empirical tests on the explanation of stability and change in offending over time have been ongoing for over a decade pitting Gottfredson and Hirschi's (1990) criminal propensity model against Sampson and Laub's (1993) life‐course model of informal social control. In 2001, Wright and his colleagues found evidence of a moderating relationship between criminal propensity, operationalized as self‐control, and prosocial ties on crime, a relationship they term life‐course interdependence. The current study extends their research by focusing on this moderating relationship and the developmental process of desistance from crime among serious juvenile delinquents. Contrary to the life‐course interdependence hypothesis, the results indicate that whereas self‐control and social bonds are strongly related to desistance from crime, there is no evidence of a moderating relationship between these two factors on desistance among this sample. The implications of this research for life‐course theories of crime, future research, and policies regarding desistance are discussed.     

THE INTERACTION OF ANTISOCIAL PROPENSITY AND LIFE‐COURSE VARYING PREDICTORS OF DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR: DIFFERENCES BY METHOD OF ESTIMATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THEORY*

Recent criminological research has explored the extent to which stable propensity and life‐course perspectives may be integrated to provide a more comprehensive explanation of variation in individual criminal offending. One line of these integrative efforts focuses on the ways that stable individual characteristics may interact with, or modify, the effects of life‐course varying social factors. Given their consistency with the long‐standing view that person–environment interactions contribute to variation in human social behavior, these theoretical integration attempts have great intuitive appeal. However, a review of past criminological research suggests that conceptual and empirical complexities have, so far, somewhat dampened the development of a coherent theoretical understanding of the nature of interaction effects between stable individual antisocial propensity and time‐varying social variables. In this study, we outline and empirically assess several of the sometimes conflicting hypotheses regarding the ways that antisocial propensity moderates the influence of time‐varying social factors on delinquent offending. Unlike some prior studies, however, we explicitly measure the interactive effects of stable antisocial propensity and time‐varying measures of selected social variables on changes in delinquent offending. In addition, drawing on recent research that suggests that the relative ubiquity of interaction effects in past studies may be partly from the poorly suited application of linear statistical models to delinquency data, we alternatively test our interaction hypotheses using least‐squares and tobit estimation frameworks. Our findings suggest that method of estimation matters, with interaction effects appearing readily in the former but not in the latter. The implications of these findings for future conceptual and empirical work on stable propensity/time‐varying social variable interaction effects are discussed.     

THE CONTEXT OF MARRIAGE AND CRIME: GENDER,THE PROPENSITY TO MARRY,AND OFFENDING IN EARLY ADULTHOOD*

Marriage is central to theoretical debates over stability and change in criminal offending over the life course. Yet, unlike other social ties such as employment, marriage is distinct in that it cannot be randomly assigned in survey research to more definitively assess causal effects of marriage on offending. As a result, key questions remain as to whether different individual propensities toward marriage shape its salience as a deterrent institution. Building on these issues, the current research has three objectives. First, we use a propensity score matching approach to estimate causal effects of marriage on crime in early adulthood. Second, we assess sex differences in the effects of marriage on offending. Although both marriage and offending are highly gendered phenomena, prior work typically focuses on males. Third, we examine whether one's propensity to marry conditions the deterrent capacity of marriage. Results show that marriage suppresses offending for males, even when accounting for their likelihood to marry. Furthermore, males who are least likely to marry seem to benefit most from this institution. The influence of marriage on crime is less robust for females, where marriage reduces crime only for those with moderate propensities to marry. We discuss these findings in the context of recent debates concerning gender, criminal offending, and the life course.     

The Impact of Federal Prison Industries Employment on the Recidivism Outcomes of Female Inmates

Female offenders face many barriers to employment, including a lack of education and work experience. Correctional work programs offer skills training and exposure to work routines and norms, yet there is scant research on whether these programs can increase a woman's employability, and thus reduce recidivism, upon release. This longitudinal study examines whether employment in the federal prison industries program, UNICOR, reduces recidivism among a large sample of female inmates. Propensity scores are utilized to control for selection bias. This study finds no significant differences in rearrest or recommitment to federal prison between inmates employed in UNICOR and those who were not. Length of UNICOR employment is also not shown to have an effect on recidivism. The gender-specific needs of female offenders must be taken into account when developing correctional programming as factors other than employment may be more salient to a woman's ability to desist from crime.     

Experimental results on data analysis algorithms for extracting and interpreting edge feature data for duct tape and textile physical fit examinations

A physical fit is an important observation that can result from the forensic analysis of trace evidence as it conveys a high degree of association between two items. However, physical fit examinations can be time-consuming, and potential bias from analysts may affect judgment. To overcome these shortcomings, a data analysis algorithm using mutual information and a decision tree has been developed to support practitioners in interpreting the evidence. We created these tools using data obtained from physical fit examinations of duct tape and textiles analyzed in previous studies, along with the reasoning behind the analysts' decisions. The relative feature importance is described by material type, enhancing the knowledge base in this field. Compared with the human analysis, the algorithms provided accuracies above 90%, with an improved rate of true positives for most duct tape subsets. Conversely, false positives were observed in high-quality scissor cut (HQ-HT-S) duct tape and textiles. As such, it is advised to use these algorithms in tandem with human analysis. Furthermore, the study evaluated the accuracy of physical fits when only partial sample lengths are available. The results of this investigation indicated that acceptable accuracies for correctly identifying true fits and non-fits occurred when at least 35% of a sample length was present. However, lower accuracies were observed for samples prone to stretching or distortion. Therefore, the models described here can provide a valuable supplementary tool but should not be the sole means of evaluating samples.     

Evaluating the Role of Race in Sentencing: An Entropy Weighting Analysis

The current study builds on prior research examining racial disparities in sentencing. Entropy weighting is introduced as a new method for estimating racial disparities that has several advantages over traditionally used methods. Entropy weighting is compared to regression and propensity score methods in estimating Black-White disparities in incarceration sentences. Although all methods find non-significant racial disparities in incarceration sentences, regression and propensity score methods underestimate disparities in incarceration sentence lengths. Entropy weighting provides comparable estimates to propensity score methods, but assures that the samples are identical on all covariates aside from race. The method offers researchers a useful and flexible approach for estimating racial disparities in criminal justice, and its use may lead to alternative conclusions about the size and presence of racial disparities in sentencing.     

多类别养老保险对居民家庭消费影响的对比研究

在老龄化不断加深、居民消费率增长缓慢、消费需求日益多元化的背景下,研究不同类别养老保险对居民家庭消费水平和消费结构的影响日益重要。采用CGSS(2015)调查数据,使用倾向值匹配(PSM)回归模型,分析不同类别养老保险对居民家庭消费水平和消费结构的影响及内在机制,研究发现:参加基本养老保险和商业性养老保险均会显著增加居民家庭总消费、生存性消费和发展性消费,基本养老保险和商业性养老保险对发展性消费的增加效应均大于生存性消费;参加商业性养老保险对居民家庭总消费、生存性消费和发展性消费的增加效应大于基本养老保险;养老保险影响居民家庭消费的核心机制是居民的总收入以及再分配偏好。为拉动居民消费,应把第三支柱的个人养老金缴费纳入个人所得税专项或专项附加扣除;提高基础养老金的水平,进一步落实养老金水平的动态调整机制。     

复方守宫散辅助治疗晚期结直肠恶性肿瘤的疗效观察

目的 基于倾向性评分匹配法探讨复方守宫散辅助治疗晚期结直肠恶性肿瘤的疗效。方法 采用倾向性评分匹配法,将匹配成功的70例患者分为对照组（化学治疗）和观察组（复方守宫散联合化学治疗）,每组35例;比较两组患者瘤体客观疗效［客观缓解率（objective response rate,ORR）,疾病控制率（disease control rate,DCR）］、生活质量评分、免疫功能指标、安全性指标,并对生存期进行分析。结果 观察组ORR、DCR优于对照组（P＜0.05）;观察组患者治疗后功能维度（躯体功能、角色功能、情绪功能、认知功能、社会功能）,症状领域（疲劳、疼痛、恶心呕吐）评分改善程度显著优于对照组（P＜0.05）;观察组患者血清CD4+T细胞、CD8+T细胞、自然杀伤细胞水平,CD4+/CD8+均显著高于对照组（P＜0.05）;治疗组患者总不良反应发生率显著低于对照组（P＜0.05）;观察组的中位无进展生存期显著高于对照组（P＜0.05）,中位总生存期高于对照组（P＞0.05）。结论 相较于单纯化学治疗,复方守宫散与化学治疗联合应用能显著提高疗效,增强机体免疫力,改善晚期结直肠癌患者生活质量,降低化学治疗的毒性及不良反应,在一定程度上延长患者生存时间。