基于信息生命周期理论的疫情谣言治理之路

从2003年非典型肺炎疫情到如今全球肆虐的新冠肺炎疫情,每次疫情的爆发都会引发各类谣言甚嚣尘上。疫情谣言危害极大,然而目前如何对其进行治理的研究成果却较少。本文尝试将信息生命周期理论引入疫情谣言治理领域,力图找出疫情谣言生命周期的关键运动影响因素,以此为基础分析疫情谣言治理过程中存在的问题并提出相应的对策建议,希冀能为我国疫情谣言治理提供理论参考。     

Exploring the Relationship Between Childhood Sexual Abuse and Adult Sexual Perpetration

Empirical findings indicate that many adult sexual offenders experienced sexual abuse during childhood. It has been suggested that characteristics of offenders' sexual perpetrating behaviors may resemble their own victimization experiences, although there has been minimal empirical investigation in this area. The purpose of the present study was to provide preliminary data on the relationship between childhood sexual abuse and characteristics of sexual offending behavior. A sample of adult male sexual offenders with histories of sexual abuse completed the Sexual Victimization Survey as well as a measure on their sexual offenses. Such characteristics as the nature of sexual activities, duration and frequency of experiences, and age and relationship of participants were examined. Results showed trends in the hypothesized direction and revealed a variety of similarities between childhood sexual abuse and adult sexual perpetration. Findings of this exploratory study suggest the importance of addressing the nature of victimization in the treatment of sexually abused boys and offenders with histories of sexual abuse.     

试论破坏选举罪适用范围之扩展

民主选举是社会主义民主的重要体现和保障，现实中破坏选举的行为层出不穷。而破坏选举罪适用范围上过于狭窄，致使不少严重危害行为置于刑法的射程之外。因此，应将破坏选举罪适用范围扩展到相当范围的政治性选举活动，具体到我国，应包涵基层群众自治组织选举、中国共产党党内选举、人民政治协商会议选举、各级人大代表法律议案表决活动等国家政治生活中重要的选举。     

论循环经济立法的生态科学依据--兼评《循环经济导论》的生态系统观

本文探索循环经济与生态系统的关系,明确生态学为循环经济立法的理论依据之一,据此阐述循环经济基本法的理论构架,以共生、仿生、复生作为两种生态系统良性循环的目标定位以及相关的生态法律制度创新.     

Pre-electoral coalitions in comparative perspective: A test of existing hypotheses

Despite the vast coalition literature, pre-electoral coalitions have never been at the center of any systematic, cross-national research. Given their prevalence and potential impact on government composition and policies, this represents a serious omission in our knowledge of coalitions. I begin to remedy this situation by testing two hypotheses found in the literature on party coalitions. The first is that pre-electoral coalitions are more likely to form in disproportional systems if there are a sufficiently large number of parties. The second is that pre-electoral coalitions are more likely to form if voters face high uncertainty about the identity of future governments. These hypotheses are tested using a new dataset comprising legislative elections in 22 advanced industrialized countries between 1946 and 1998. The results of the statistical analysis support the first hypothesis, but not the second.     

Malapportionment and democracy: A curvilinear relationship

This article examines electoral malapportionment by illuminating the relationship between malapportionment level and democracy. Although a seminal study rejects this relationship, we argue that a logical and empirically significant relationship exists, which is curvilinear and is based on a framework focusing on incumbent politicians' incentives and the constraints they face regarding malapportionment. Malapportionment is lowest in established democracies and electoral authoritarian regimes with an overwhelmingly strong incumbent; it is relatively high in new democracies and authoritarian regimes with robust opposition forces. The seminal study's null finding is due to the mismatch between theoretical mechanisms and choice of democracy indices. Employing an original cross-national dataset, we conduct regression analyses; the results support our claims. Furthermore, on controlling the degree of democracy, the single-member district system's effects become insignificant. Australia, Belarus, the Gambia, Japan, Malaysia, Tunisia, and the United States illustrate the political logic underlying curvilinear relations at democracy's various levels.     

中日韩自贸区的可行性与经济周期规律

自2002年中日韩自由贸易区的构想提出以来,学界和决策部门对其建立的可行性仍持怀疑态度。本研究率先采用惩罚性样条滤波（Penalized Spline Filter）对中日韩实际产出变量进行分解,计算了周期项的相关系数和滚动相关性并检验了格兰杰因果关系,探讨建立三国自贸区的可行性。实证研究结果表明：中日、中韩间同期相关度低,但日韩间具有显著的同期相关性,并自1998年趋强,三者之间无格兰杰因果关系。因此,笔者认为从经济周期的协动性角度来看,建立中日韩自由贸易区的时机尚未成熟。建议可以先尝试建立日韩自由贸易区,逐步推进中日韩自贸区进程。     

The classification of electoral systems: Bringing legislators back in

It is widely assumed that electoral institutions shape politicians' incentive for personal vote-seeking, with important behavioral and policy consequences. Yet, there is a surprising lack of consensus on how to compare real-world electoral institutions. Using new data this paper examines how legislators' own perception of their electoral incentives in fifteen democracies correspond to some of the most seminal classification schemes in political science. Our survey of 2326 legislators – the empirically broadest study of personal vote orientation so far conducted – demonstrates that legislators do not always understand electoral incentives in the same way scholarly rankings do, highlighting the need for scholars of political institutions to justify their choice of classification scheme. If not, an entire body of literature may be misguided.     

Do volatile voters vote less correctly? An analysis of correct voting among vote (intention) switchers in US presidential election campaigns

The literature on electoral volatility and the literature on electoral campaigns hold contradictory views on voters switching vote (intention) during the campaign. In this note, we shed new light on this contradiction, making two contributions. First, we investigate the extent to which stable and volatile voters choose the correct party. Second, we distinguish levels of correct voting and the impact of the act of switching on the correctness of the vote. Our analyses of vote-switching in American elections show that, while volatile voters are less likely to vote correctly, they are more likely to switch from an incorrect to the correct party than vice versa. Furthermore, we show that following the campaign more closely makes voters more likely to switch vote (intention) towards the correct party.     

Applying behavioural science to the annual electoral canvass in England: Evidence from a large-scale randomised controlled trial

Local authorities in Great Britain are required to ensure that their electoral registers are as accurate and complete as possible. To this end, Household Enquiry Forms (HEFs) are mailed to all properties annually to collect updated details from residents, and any eligible unregistered residents will subsequently be invited to register to vote. Unfortunately, HEF nonresponse is pervasive and costly. Using insights from behavioural science, we modified letters and envelopes posted to households as part of the annual canvass, and evaluated their effects using a randomised controlled trial across two local authorities in England (N=226,528 properties). We find that modified materials – particularly redesigned envelopes – significantly increase initial response rates and savings. However, we find no effects on voter registration. While certain behavioural interventions can improve the efficiency of the annual canvass, other approaches or interventions may be needed to increase voter registration rates and update voter information.