Voting,clientelism, and identity: experimental evidence from Montenegro

ABSTRACT

The study analyses ethnic voter-candidate linkages and the electoral consequences of such linkages in an ethnically divided Montenegrin society. I argue that vote choice in Montenegro is a function of the dominance of the identity cleavage between the two largest, dominant ethnicities: Montenegrins and Serbs. I conducted a two-stage experiment on a sample of 240 students where, in the first stage, the respondents were given cues as to a candidate’s ethnicity. The results suggest both a co-identity linkage and a positive effect of ethnic information shortcuts on voters’ choices among Montenegrin respondents. For Serbs, ethnic cues failed as a substantive information shortcut in producing electoral advantage. However, additional analysis of the observational data from CSES 2016 provided more evidence to support the identity linkage hypothesis. In an additional experimental stage, respondents were introduced to vote-buying information about the same candidate, under the assumption that the defection rate would be lower for the co-identity candidate. Here, the defection rates remain stable regardless of the co-identity attachment. The overall results suggest that with additional ethnic political parties present, defection as a consequence of illicit behaviour will not translate into a significant transfer of power between ethnic groups.     

Smoking Guns: European Cigarette Smuggling in the 1990’s

This article concerns European cigarette smuggling over the past decade and examines the actors, structures and relationships which facilitated the illicit trade. It discusses the central role played by actors not traditionally associated with organised crime, such as multi-national tobacco companies, Swiss banks and the state security agencies of various Balkan states. It demonstrates how domestic legislation in Switzerland and instability in the Balkans prevented national law enforcement agencies from effectively dealing with this international network at an earlier stage. The article also focuses on the history of local and national law enforcement investigations as well as the integrated multi-national investigation project later initiated by the EU and member states. The article's conclusions suggest that while smuggling actors have successfully adapted to the process of globalisation – financial and state deregulation – law enforcement agencies remain at a disadvantage as they are hampered by the domestic legislation in nation states such as Switzerland and the United States. While cigarette smuggling was and is a major illicit industry, it has not been the subject of much academic scrutiny. This article, based on field research in the Balkans and EU member states aims to contribute to a broader understanding of a problem involving a multiplicity of criminal actors, states and law enforcement agencies.     

Identity in Flux, Destination Uncertain: Montenegro During and After the Yugoslav Wars

Montenegro's political evolution since the mid-1990s undermines the stereotypical view that disputes over nationality and territory in the Balkans are bound to end in violence. Montenegro's case also shows that ethnic identity is fluid rather than fixed in large parts of the region. Its bid for independence appears to be heavily dependent on the way that disputes between the Atlantic democracies and Serbia are resolved. Montenegro has formidable handicaps to overcome if it is to sever its constitutional links with Serbia and embrace full statehood. It is hard to see how this can be accomplished without international economic backing.     

The elephant in the room: illiberal politics in Montenegro

ABSTRACT

Montenegro is at the same time considered both a success story as the leader of European integration in South-Eastern Europe and a country with severe democratic deficiencies. This paper builds upon the theory of democratic backsliding and uses theory-building process tracing to detect and analyse systematic patterns in the illiberal policies that the governing party uses to maintain its position in power. The three typical cases examined here reveal that assuring external control and maintaining the pretence of legality seem to be important elements of illiberal policies and that independent institutions and European standards are often used to assert and maintain control.     

Montenegro,NATO and the divided society

In this paper we are investigating the political and social effects of Montenegro joining NATO. This issue is highly controversial and follows the political divisions in Montenegro, which motivated us to apply social cleavage theory. As method, we applied logistic regression clustered for standard error. We found that besides socio-demographic variables (ethnic division between Montenegrins and Serbs), the main line of the cleavage indicated by support of, or opposition to NATO membership falls along the issues of the independence of Montenegro, its relationship with the EU vs. Russia, as well as the attitude toward political power and party identification.     

Defense sector reform in the Western Balkans – different approaches and different tools

This article analyses two different approaches to defense sector reform (DSR) in the Western Balkans. It explores the role of NATO in the reform process in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), as well as Norway's involvement in Montenegro. Based on this, the article then compares and contrasts the two processes, and looks at the factors that have influenced their success or failure. The analysis show that both BiH and Montenegro have taken significant steps towards Euro-Atlantic integration, and that NATO and Norway have succeeded in part of their work to assist this effort. However, it also suggests that certain key factors for success in SSR have been less than optimal, such as donor coordination and the principle of local ownership. Both actors are also limited by the lack of a conceptual framework or guidelines for their work on DSR.     

Literature, Social Poetics, and Identity Construction in Montenegro

This article outlines the contested nature of identity in Montenegro and elaborates on its phases of development. It also problematizes the nature of the efforts to create mechanisms of civil society in contemporary Montenegro.