The International Monetary Fund: A review of the recent evidence

A review of recent quantitative studies on the International Monetary Fund reveals that much of the conventional wisdom is incorrect. Recent studies have demonstrated a new degree of methodological rigor, have drawn more heavily upon insights from political science, and have asked a number of new questions. We review studies of participation in IMF programs, design of IMF conditionality, implementation and enforcement of IMF conditions, conventional program effects and catalytic effects. At every stage, we find substantial evidence of the influence of major IMF shareholders, of the Fund’s own organizational imperatives, and of domestic politics within borrowing countries. We conclude that very little is known with certainty about the effects of IMF lending, but that a great deal has been learned about the mechanics of IMF programs that will have to be taken into account in order to obtain unbiased estimates of those effects.

North Korea and diversion: A quantitative analysis (1997–2011)

In this research I propose that the concept of diversionary theory provides at least a partial explanation for North Korea's conflict activities. I examine and analyze the country's data on diplomatic and military activities from 1997 to 2011 and argue that North Korea's domestic conditions influence its willingness to engage in external conflict. I also examine the impact of such external influences as UN sanctions, leadership changes in the region, national capacities of the US, South Korea and Japan, and strategic military exercises on DPRK-initiated conflicts. This study provides insight into the activities of this reclusive state and also demonstrates useful techniques that can be applied to analyze other similarly closed nations. The findings suggest that there are identified links between internal conditions and the Kim regime's aggressive actions between 1997 and 2011 in support of the diversionary argument. Concurrently, there is less evidence that North Korea's hostile diplomatic and military activities are based on external pressures.     

金融危机后日本银行货币政策框架演变与启示

为了应对全球性金融危机对金融系统的冲击,日本银行采用了极为宽松的货币政策,在灵活调整货币政策框架的同时运用了大量传统和非传统的政策工具。文章主要从货币政策目标、货币政策工具以及货币政策传导机制三个方面考察了金融危机后日本银行从传统货币政策体系框架向量化货币政策体系框架的演变过程。日本银行的政策实践对我国进一步完善货币政策框架有一定的借鉴和启示。     

Automated detection and classification of counterfeit banknotes using quantitative features captured by spectral-domain optical coherence tomography

Counterfeiting of banknotes is still a severe crime problem in many countries. One of the most significant issue for solving the crime is to classify the counterfeit types and identify the sources. Most of the current methods to classify counterfeit banknotes rely on manual examination that is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Moreover, these methods only detect surface features which can be easily imitated through advanced printing technology. In this study, an automated method based on optical coherence tomography (OCT) and machine-learning algorithms was proposed to classify different types of banknotes based on the internal features. A spectral-domain OCT (SD-OCT) system was employed for sub-surface imaging and quantitative assessment of banknotes. A total of 29 Chinese 100-Yuan banknotes were collected, in which 4 of them were real and 25 of them were counterfeiting by three different printing processes. Each banknote was imaged 10 times in 3 distinct regions, which resulted in a dataset of 290 samples. Each sample was characterized by extracting 2 A-scan (OCT signal intensity along depth) based features and 14B-scan (cross-sectional OCT images) based features. Several machine-learning models, including logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and random forest (RF), were built and optimized as the classifiers that were trained using 203 samples and applied to predict 87 testing samples. The best performance was achieved by SVM classifier in which the sensitivity of 96.55% and specificity of 98.85% were obtained in discriminating between authentic and counterfeit banknotes, and the sensitivity of 94.67% and specificity of 98.22% were obtained in predicting the types of counterfeit banknotes. These classifiers were also evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study where A-scan and B-scan derived features from OCT images have been used for the detection and classification of different types of counterfeit banknotes.     

网络协议教学中NS仿真实验平台的应用

仿真是分析和评估复杂通信网络的有效方法之一,通过介绍NS的工作原理和仿真过程,提出一种基于定量统计建模方法的网络仿真实验平台,用于辅助网络协议教学、协议优化测试等工作的开展,并通过详细的实例演示了实验平台的运行效果。     

神经根型颈椎病患者热敏态腧穴温度觉特征研究

目的 观察神经根型颈椎病患者热敏态腧穴温度觉阈值特征,为腧穴热敏的客观显示与临床温控激发优化参数的选择提供科学依据。方法 纳入神经根型颈椎病患者40例,应用温度觉定量测定技术,分别测定患者大椎穴、肩井穴、肩髃穴的热觉阈、热痛阈、热耐痛阈,根据每个腧穴是否出现热敏灸感分为热敏组和非热敏组,比较其温度觉阈值差异。并在此基础上,对热敏态肩井穴给予42 ℃热刺激进行温控激发,观察热敏灸感的差异。结果 大椎穴、肩井穴、肩髃穴热敏组热觉阈值、热痛阈值和热耐痛阈值分别明显高于同一穴位非热敏组,差异均具有统计学意义（P<0.05）。与热敏态肩井穴激发温度为40 ℃时比较,42 ℃时灸感强度更强,潜伏期时间更短,效应期时间更长,差异均具有统计学意义（P<0.05）。结论 神经根型颈椎病患者热敏态腧穴与非热敏态腧穴具有不同温度觉阈值特征,热敏态腧穴热觉阈、热痛阈、热耐痛阈值均高于非热敏态腧穴;不同的激发温度,热敏灸感出现的灸感强度、潜伏期、效应期时间不同,42 ℃为临床较佳激发温度。     

非法吸收公众存款罪定量要素初探--以罪名限缩适用为视角

定量要素是指刑法规定中反映危害行为对法益造成损害的量的要素。非法吸收公众存款罪作为经济犯罪的典型罪名，其社会危害性必须达到一定量的程度才具有可罚的违法性。本罪的定量要素包括犯罪数额、犯罪数量、犯罪行为特征等。行为构成犯罪需同时满足法律规定的数额条件和对象数量条件；集资行为给存款人造成的损失数额不是犯罪构成要件要素，但可作为量刑因素予以考虑；对非法吸收公众存款行为的利诱性、社会性必须进行程度的判断，在此基础上才能进一步认定行为构成要件的符合性。     

Evidence based strategy for normalization of quantitative PCR data,in forensic miRNA-analysis

Micro-RNA (miRNA) based analysis of body fluids and composition of complex crime stains has recently been introduced as a potential and powerful tool to forensic genetics. Analysis of miRNA analysis has several advantages over mRNA but reliable miRNA detection and quantification using quantitative PCR requires a solid and forensically relevant normalization strategy. In our study we evaluated a panel of 12 carefully selected reference genes for their suitability as endogenous controls in miRNA qPCR normalization in forensically relevant settings. We analyzed assay performances and variances in venous blood, semen, menstrual blood, saliva and vaginal secretion and mixtures thereof integrating highly standardized protocols with contemporary methodologies and included several well established computational algorithms.Based on these empirical results, we recommend normalization to the group of RNU24, RNU43, and RNU66, as this signature exhibits the most stable expression levels and the least expected variation among the evaluated candidate reference genes in forensically relevant body fluids. To account for the lack of consensus on how best to perform and interpret quantitative PCR experiments, our study's documentation is according to MIQE guidelines, defining the “minimum information for publication of quantitative real-time PCR experiments”.     

毒品案件中控制下交付情报决策的博弈论分析

控制下交付是为了侦破毒品案件、打击毒品犯罪而提出的一项行之有效的侦查措施。在控制下交付的实施过程中，公安机关和贩毒集团各自根据当时的情形进行决策，彼此的决策又相互影响，符合博弈的基本模式。可以用博弈的方法进行定量分析。公安机关通过对这一过程的量化分析，计算出各方的损失和收益，从而将控制下交付的风险降至最低，对控制下交付的情报决策起着重要的指导作用。     

单个平面足迹中支撑压痕总长、宽度与身高、体重相关规律的综合定量分析

以随机捺取的年龄在19-50岁,身高在165-186厘米,体重在50-80公斤范围内的731人共1462枚男性平面赤足足迹为样本来源作统计分析,可作出单个平面足迹中支撑压痕总长、宽度与身高、体重相关规律的综合定量分析.