社会发展中重新犯罪的实证研究

重新犯罪作为一种社会现象 ,在社会的发展过程中往往呈现出一定的变化。本文立足于我国 2 0世纪 90年代以来到 2 1世纪初期这一特殊的社会背景 ,从实证角度描述了重新犯罪的总体趋势和主要特点 ,并侧重从重新犯罪主体和相关的社会因素两方面入手 ,剖析了重新犯罪的原因 ,提出了相应的预防策略     

PREDICTING WHO REOFFENDS: THE NEGLECTED ROLE OF NEIGHBORHOOD CONTEXT IN RECIDIVISM STUDIES*

Prior studies of recidivism have focused almost exclusively on individual‐level characteristics of offenders and their offenses to explore the correlates of reoffending. Notably absent from these studies are measures reflecting the neighborhood contexts in which individuals live. The current research addresses this shortcoming. Using data on a sample of ex‐offenders in Multnomah County, Oregon (Portland and surrounding area) in conjunction with 2000 census data, we answer two questions. First, which individual‐level factors influence rates of recidivism? Second, to what extent does neighborhood socioeconomic status account for variation in the reoffending behavior of ex‐prisoners that is not explained by their individual‐level characteristics? We find that those who return to disadvantaged neighborhoods recidivate at a greater rate while those who return to resource rich or affluent communities recidivate at a lesser rate, controlling for individual‐level factors.     

论缓刑的法律性质--兼评缓刑考验期满后再犯罪成立累犯的合理性

缓刑在不同的刑事诉讼阶段所表现的主要特性是不同的,因而对其性质进行分阶段的界定也就有了现实的依据和合理性。从决定是否对犯罪分子宣告缓刑的意义上来说,缓刑有刑罚裁量的性质;从对犯罪分子具体适用缓刑的各项规定的意义上来说,缓刑又具有刑罚执行的性质。缓刑,兼具刑罚裁量和刑罚执行两重性质。在明确缓刑具有刑罚执行的法律性质的前提下,认定缓刑考验期满后再犯相应之罪的犯罪分子为累犯,就有了理论以及法律上的合理性。此种处置,从一般预防和特殊预防的角度来看,既符合中国社会重视行为人主观意志的现实,又能更好发挥刑罚预防犯罪的功能,也是符合我国现行刑事政策和法律规定的。     

Prediction of violent and sexual offences: A replication study of the VRAG in Switzerland

Abstract

The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument and has been validated in different countries. However, there is no investigation supporting the predictive accuracy of the VRAG in the German language area. The VRAG scores of 79 violent and sexual offenders in Switzerland were assessed based on data from their psychiatric expert opinions. The VRAG scores were compared to subsequent recidivism as shown in the official criminal records. Consistent with past research in the English language area, the VRAG yielded a satisfying predictive accuracy (ROC area = .73), demonstrating its usefulness for risk assessment of violent delinquency in the Swiss cultural and German language area.     

连续犯既遂与未遂的界定问题研究——以个案为视角

连续犯是裁判上的一罪,只能认定为一罪,如果部分既遂部分未遂,依据部分全体的认定原则,应认定为犯罪既遂。敲诈勒索罪是典型的目的犯,在判断其既遂与否时,应以行为人的犯罪目的是否实现为标准。如果被告人对敲诈勒索获取钱款的行为供认不讳,且有其他证据辅证的,即使被敲诈人没有报案,也可认定为证据确实、充分。     

Survival analysis: A survey

This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.     

A survival model with dependent competing events and right-hand censoring: Probation and parole as an illustration

Researchers are frequently interested in estimating the elapsed time until the occurrence of an event, such as an arrest following release from prison, dissolution of a marriage, and death following the onset of a disease. Estimation is often hindered by the occurrence of a competing event, which prevents the event of interest from being observed, and by limited follow-up periods. A parametric procedure developed in this paper is suitable for dealing with nonrepeatable competing events when the events are correlated and when independent righthand censoring also exists. Weak distributional assumptions are accommodated by using a Box-Cox transformation and by explicit modeling of heteroscedasticity. The procedure is applied to data pertaining to failure on probabation and parole.     

Sexually violent predators and civil commitment: is selection evidence based?

Sexual offenses represent an alarming proportion of crimes committed yearly. To address these concerns, several states, including South Carolina (SC), have enacted laws requiring sexually violent predators (SVPs) to be civilly committed to treatment. To date, no published study has examined sexual offenders recommended for treatment in SC. This study used a specially designed statewide database (SC-SVP research database) to determine which offender and offense characteristics were associated with increased likelihood of being recommended for civil commitment. Factors correlated with being more likely to be recommended included: being of a younger age at time of evaluation, prior sex convictions, having related and unrelated victims, a higher number of victims, frequent substance use, and a history of suicide attempts. Prior sex convictions, having both related and non-related victims, and a higher total number of victims align with characteristics associated with sexual recidivism. Frequent substance abuse and a history of suicide attempts do not mirror previous findings regarding sexual recidivism. These findings present new information regarding the civil commitment process of offenders being committed to the SC-SVP treatment program, characterize types of offenders committed to SC-SVP treatment program, and provide a foundation for using a computerized database in conducting sex offender research.