Do volatile voters vote less correctly? An analysis of correct voting among vote (intention) switchers in US presidential election campaigns

The literature on electoral volatility and the literature on electoral campaigns hold contradictory views on voters switching vote (intention) during the campaign. In this note, we shed new light on this contradiction, making two contributions. First, we investigate the extent to which stable and volatile voters choose the correct party. Second, we distinguish levels of correct voting and the impact of the act of switching on the correctness of the vote. Our analyses of vote-switching in American elections show that, while volatile voters are less likely to vote correctly, they are more likely to switch from an incorrect to the correct party than vice versa. Furthermore, we show that following the campaign more closely makes voters more likely to switch vote (intention) towards the correct party.     

Unheard Voices: Why Former Child Welfare Workers Left Their Positions

This mixed methods study used a snowball sample (n = 54) to capture retrospective insight from former public child welfare workers about job satisfaction and reasons they left their positions. Responses to open-ended questions suggested a theme of lack of organizational support as the primary reason they left. Former workers also reported that they wanted a voice and someone to hear their concerns, greater recognition, and opportunity to practice self-care. Quantitatively, workers in their positions 8 years or longer were the most satisfied on a 19-item global scale examining job satisfaction. Respondents were unhappy with their workloads and emotional impact of their positions.     

犯罪现场反常情况的成因

犯罪现场反常情况是侦查初期开展侦查工作的一大障碍;但只要找准其成因,并运用正确的方法加以识别和排除,据此展开侦查反而会成为侦破案件的一条捷径。犯罪现场反常情况的形成原因一般包括犯罪人的伪装、偶然因素的介入、环境因素、犯罪人的特殊犯罪目的、犯罪分子的附带作案心理等方面。     

“初心使命”失守衍生的贪腐后果与成因——基于教育系统15个违纪违法案件的考察

初心使命作为党的思想建设范畴,具有重要的廉政价值,可以为构建廉政体系中的不想腐环节提供思想资源和技术支持。初心使命在实践运作中体现为岗位职责,初心使命失守是指党员干部在特定岗位上的职责意识淡化、弱化、异化。对教育系统15个违纪违法案例进行分析,发现“利益诱惑情境—初心使命失守—贪腐行为”是初心使命失守衍生的贪腐行为的内在逻辑链条,凸显了初心使命的廉政价值及作用机制。因此应根据利益诱惑情境的作用机制,构建激发初心使命特点优势与控制利益诱惑情境的双重防腐模式。从初心使命视角研究腐败行为的发生机理,弥补了当前初心使命与廉政关系研究的不足。     

集体离职研究综述与展望

近年来,许多研究者开始关注集体离职研究,出现了大量探讨其群体过程机制的实证研究并建 立了相关理论模型,这对于揭示集体离职的规律以及防范集体离职具有重要意义。本研究通过文献综述,把以 往集体离职过程研究的路径归纳为影响因素与影响过程路径、群体互动过程路径、决策机制路径,并对相关研 究进行了评述。未来研究应继续深入考察集体离职的过程机制,尤其是连带性离职中的过程机制以及引导和干 预集体离职意向的对策研究。     

Determinants of legislative turnover in Western Europe, 1945–2015

This article explains legislative turnover in eight West European legislatures over 152 general elections in the period 1945–2015. Turnover is measured as the rate of individual membership change in unicameral or lower chambers. It is the outcome of a legislative recruitment process with a supply and a demand side. Decisions made by contenders affect supply, while decisions made by parties and voters influence demand. Such decisions are shaped by four political and institutional factors: the institutional context of political careers, or structure of political career opportunities; political party characteristics; electoral swings; and electoral systems. Ten specific hypotheses are tested within this theoretical framework. The structure of political career opportunities is the most decisive factor explaining variability in turnover rates, followed by electoral swings and political parties. Electoral systems show less substantive effects. Electoral volatility is the predictor with the most substantive effects, followed by duration of legislative term, strength of bicameralism, regional authority, gender quotas, level of legislative income and district magnitude.     

对法国物权变动债权意思主义的再思考

一般认为,《法国民法典》确立了物权变动的债权意思主义,即当事人间的债权意思引致了物权的变动。但深入研究《法国民法典》后却得出了并非完全一致的结论:所谓的物权变动的债权意思主义,是一定逻辑体系之"前见"下的结论。以权利生效的要件以及权利变动的过程和结果观之,债权意思产生物权变动的效果是荒诞的。"物权意思+公示对抗"应当被确立为物权变动的第四种立法模式。这一认识对于理解我国《物权法》关于物权变动的立法主义选择以及我国未来《民法典》的制定具有意义。     

犯罪未遂中的意志因素辨析

犯罪人在犯罪过程中的意志因素可以分为“犯罪本意”和“非犯罪本意的意志”。犯罪人着手实施犯罪后,由于犯罪本意以外的原因使犯罪过程停止下来,则构成犯罪未遂。在犯罪本意没有改变的情况下,当犯罪人的非犯罪本意的意志出现后,也可以使犯罪过程停止下来,但这仍然构成犯罪未遂,而不是构成犯罪中止。由于“非犯罪本意的意志”也属于意志因素,所以犯罪人着手实施犯罪后,导致犯罪未遂的原因既有意志以外的原因也有意志以内的原因。对我国刑法23条中的“意志以外的原因”应做狭义的理解,即它应当是指“犯罪本意以外的原因”。     

包庇、纵容黑社会性质组织罪之主观特征辨析

包庇、纵容黑社会性质组织罪之包庇行为只能是出自故意 ,而纵容行为则可出自直接故意和间接故意。本罪并不以行为人主观上必须明确认识到对象是黑社会性质的组织、黑社会性质组织的违法犯罪活动为不可缺少的条件。只要行为人明知自己的行为是包庇、纵容犯罪的人 (包括犯罪组织及成员 )的违法犯罪活动 ,便构成本罪故意所必需的认识因素。     

论合同诈骗罪之"非法占有目的"的产生时间

“非法占有目的”产生的时间在刑法界越来越引起大家的关注,尤其是在界定合同诈骗案件当中此罪与彼罪、罪与非罪显得非常重要。“非法占有目的”在合同诈骗罪中只能产生于财物所有人交付(处分)财物之前,在合同诈骗案中不存在所谓的“事后故意”。