2011年大选之后的泰国

泰国2011年大选前的政治格局与他信时期相比并没有太大的改变,因此,完全没有政治经验的英拉的上台也就不会令人感到太意外。但如上届政府一样,英拉上台后面临重重困难。外交方面,英拉政府则表现出色,在短短的时间内构建了包括周边国家、区域大国和国际组织在内的全方位外交体系。     

Thai social movements and the anti-ADB campaign

This article examines the desacralisation of royal charisma in contemporary Thailand. Over the past few years an underground discourse has emerged among critics of royal ideology and supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra that directly confronts the power of the monarchy. The images, metaphors and linguistic devices used in the process are difficult to study because they rarely appear in public. This article focuses on an unprecedented demonstration of rage against the monarchy on September 19, 2010, when red-shirted demonstrators painted anti-royal graffiti on a construction hoarding at Ratchaprasong intersection in downtown Bangkok. In analysing the Thai political crisis as a battle of different charismatic groups, the article will present the September 19 event as the first open strike against the sacred charisma of the Thai monarchy. This charisma has hitherto been protected by royalists from all walks of life who were “working towards the monarchy.” With their attacks on the monarchy the red-shirts were challenging a legitimacy-conferring system which had benefited wide sections of the Bangkok populace in the past. At the same time, a competing charismatic movement has emerged around Thaksin, who himself has to take into account the charisma he conferred upon his followers.     

Why did Thailand's middle class turn against a democratically elected government? The information-gap hypothesis

In 2006, Bangkok's middle-class residents overwhelmingly supported the military coup that displaced the elected government of Thaksin Shinawatra. Survey research shows that opponents of Thaksin had a stronger commitment to liberal democracy and possibly to royalist values while rural voters supported Thaksin because he fulfilled their social demands. Opposition to Thaksin was not motivated by economic interests, but rather, there is some evidence that urban middle- and upper-class voters disliked Thaksin because they heard negative reporting about him, which were less available in the countryside. These findings are compatible with a new theory of democratic consolidation, in which the upper classes have the means that would enable and encourage them to pay sufficient attention to politics to discover that what they viewed as ‘good government’ was violated by the ruling party, which could have led to demands for more democracy historically. More recently, however, in Thailand and perhaps other instances in Southeast Asia and Latin America, those with the money and leisure to follow politics closely have heard reports about the ‘bad government’ of populist, democratically elected leaders, and thus have turned against them.     

Embracing electronic media but suppressing civil society: Authoritarian consolidation in Singapore

In contrast with some other parts of Southeast Asia, challenges to media controls in Singapore have been limited and ineffectual. Lately the government has been refining legislation to try and keep it that way. But this strategy is not principally based on the unrealistic objective of direct information control. Rather, preventing the emergence of organized social and political forces that could lead to a genuine civil society lies at the heart of the strategy. One of the factors that serves to reinforce the government's agenda here is the high degree of direct and indirect dependence on the state by Singaporeans for social and economic resources. This translates into vulnerability to political persecution and caution by social and ­political actors. Meanwhile, the promotion of Singapore as an 'infocommunication hub' has met with a positive response from global media organizations. New ­electronic media businesses appear just as capable of being reconciled with the authoritarian regime as more established media have proven to be.     

泰国:2011～2012年回顾与展望

2011年7月,泰国提前举行大选,为泰党赢得选举并联合小党派组建联合政府。前总理他信的妹妹、为泰党候选人英拉·西那瓦当选泰国第28任总理,也是泰国历史上首位女总理。由于特大洪灾的影响,2011年泰国经济增长速度低于预期,新政府执政能力也经受考验。外交方面,泰柬边境冲突成为泰国本年度重要的外交事件,但两国关系随着英拉政府上台而开始出现缓和。     

Social movements and political opposition in contemporary Thailand

Abstract

There is an underlying optimism in much of the literature that considers the emergence of social movements as being associated with deepening processes of democratization. The expansion of civil society is seen to expand political space. This paper takes a critical lens to this perspective, using recent political events in Thailand as a case study of the political strategies and alliances of social movements. We examine the debates that saw many social movements and their leaderships initially support elected Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his Thai Rak Thai Party only to see this support drain away as these same movements called on their followers to bring down the government. More importantly, we examine how these movements came to ally with conservative forces associated with the palace and military. Based on the Thai case study, we suggest that these seemingly unlikely outcomes result from the very nature of social movements. Leadership by middle-class activists, the need for alliances, the development of networks, and a focus on single issues and identities leads social movements to make substantial political compromises. The consequences can be negative for democratic development.     

Thaksin Shinawatra and the reshaping of Thai politics

Twice elected prime minister of Thailand at the head of his Thai Rak Thai Party, telecommunications magnate Thaksin Shinwatra was controversial in office. Since his government was overthrown by a September 2006 military coup backed by the palace, conservatives, and a broad coalition of opponents, Thaksin has remained at the centre of Thailand's continuing political turmoil. This paper examines his political legacy, both in its positive and negative forms, through a focus on the nature of political parties and electoral policies in Thailand; the role of business interests in politics; the impact of Thaksin's politics on political activism and mobilisation; populism, social welfare, and the reaction of the middle class to welfare politics; Thaksin's confrontation with the elite and the monarchy; and the developing judicialisation of politics.     

Considerations on inequality and politics in Thailand

In Thailand, economic inequality has long been a fact of life. It is a “general inequality of condition” that can be seen to influence all aspects of social, economic, and political life. Yet inequality has not always been associated with political activism. Following the 2006 military coup, however, there has been a deliberate and politicized linking of inequality and politics. The article explores a complex of political events – elections, coup, constitution, and the political ascent of Thaksin Shinawatra – that has given rise to a relatively recent politicization of economic and political inequalities, now invoked in street politics – a rhetoric developed amongst pro-Thaksin red shirts that challenged the status quo and generates conflict over the nature of electoral democracy.     

Network monarchy and legitimacy crises in Thailand

Abstract

This article argues that widely used ideas such as bureaucratic polity, constitutional monarchy, transitional democracy and political reform fail to characterize accurately the recent politics of Thailand. Instead, Thai politics are best understood in terms of political networks. The leading network of the period 1973–2001 was centred on the palace, and is here termed ‘network monarchy’. Network monarchy involved active interventions in the political process by the Thai King and his proxies, notably former prime minister Prem Tinsulanond. Network monarchy developed considerable influence, but never achieved the conditions for domination. Instead, the palace was obliged to work with and through other political institutions, primarily the elected parliament. Although essentially conservative, network monarchy also took on liberal forms during the 1990s. Thailand experienced three major legitimacy crises after 1992; in each case, Prem acted on behalf of the palace to restore political equilibrium. However, these interventions reflected the growing weakness of the monarchy, especially following the landslide election victories of prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2001 and 2005. Thaksin sought to displace network monarchy with new networks of his own devising. This article suggests that conventional understandings of the power of the monarchy need to be rethought.