Managing Power Transitions: Towards a 21st Century Concert of Powers

Power shifts and especially power transitions in the international system are often associated with (military) confl ict. Power Transition Theory (PTT) does offer an analysis of this phenomenon but no remedy. We suggest easing the tensions related to ongoing worldwide power shifts by introducing a new informal multilateral security governance institution, based on the idea of a concert of powers. The historical European Concert of the 19th century prevented the outbreak of great power wars for more than a generation by providing a cooperation framework, based on shared norms and common procedures. In this article we explore the possibility of utilizing a modernized concert of powers as a framework for managing the coming power shifts. In order to do so, we introduce two new elements in Power Transition Theory: (1) the importance of the (dis) satisfaction of the declining hegemon with the anticipated future order, and (2) a broader multilateral framework of major powers that overcomes the Power Transition Theory’s traditional bilateral “duel” situation. On this basis, institutionalized power transition management becomes possible. We then work out the norms, strengths and weaknesses of the historical concert and update it with a few new features that would be necessary for it to be successful in the 21st century.     

地区安全治理的未来:走向亚洲协调

作者首次提出了"亚洲协调"的概念,讨论了亚洲协调对未来亚洲及太平洋地区安全治理的必要性和长远性。尽管最早的主要国家之间协调(concert of powers)的理论与实践是19世纪的、欧洲的,但是,关于主要国家之间协调(不仅是大国协调)的一般理论却同样可以运用在解决21世纪的亚洲(以及太平洋)的严峻安全挑战和困境上。这些挑战和困境在未来可能会进一步演化为严重的大国之间的对抗甚至冲突。更重要的是,亚洲协调将注定会阻止战争、实现长期和平及维持本地区的经济活力。也就是说,如果亚洲协调明智地和有效地建立并运作起来,到2079年,亚洲以及太平洋将拥有一百年的和平,如同欧洲在1815-1914年拥有的百年和平。从1979年到现在,亚洲地区已经享受了接近四十年的和平。在过去二十多年建立起来的地区或者跨地区的论坛、会议、组织和制度等,反映了治理亚洲地区的权力转移的企图和努力;尽管这些安排相互重叠、尚未彼此兼容,甚至相互竞争,但我们完全可以把它们当做未来亚洲协调的基础。虽然目前的地区安全治理仍然由美国及其同盟体系占据主导地位,但美国也不得不重视复杂的安全地区主义。有不少人建议美国应该以亚洲协调作为未来解决与中国关系的方案。中国已经为建立在经济发展基础上的亚洲和平做出重大贡献。中国已与美国建立"新型大国关系"回应美国的"转向亚洲"。中国在亚洲协调中的地位是中心的和关键的。     

Diversity Management in World Politics. Reformist China and the Future of the (Liberal) Order

Given the widely shared belief that, following a long period of crisis, the American-led liberal world order is now in transition, the question arises: what comes next? Considering China’s ‘parallel order-shaping’ project with respect to the liberal order as a harbinger of a ‘multi-order world’, it is reasonable to expect a concert-like mode of ordering, which will draw on a new common language to reach consensus among proactive stakeholders at the global level. Those interested in maintaining the liberal character of this arrangement, such as the EU, should therefore steadily engage in the process leading to its establishment in order to gain and retain full membership while enhancing their discursive power.     

Operationalizing Social Capital: A Strategy to Enhance Communities'"Capacity to Concert"

This article addresses a concern increasingly being voiced in the donor establishment: fifty years of development assistance programs have failed to produce conclusive evidence that they can foster sustainable economic and social development in poor countries. The nature of donor programs is such that it emphasizes economic remedies and orients aid to finite projects. Yet recent evidence suggests that sustained development may be more a continued civic process whereby communities form their capacity to come to their own understandings about public ways of behaving and relating, whereby they develop their capacity to concert . This translates into a practical capability to pinpoint underlying problems, assess alternative approaches, and devise solutions most likely to be sustained. This micro capability may also have important macroeconomic implications in terms of institutional predictability and—through it—in terms of scale economies, transaction costs, transparency, incentive to innovate, and climate to implement public policies. The article suggests an alternative approach to development assistance and offers concrete recommendations to donors.     

论上市公司收购中一致行动的法律规制

由于证卷市场固有的缺陷 ,证券立法对公司收购进行全面规制就成为一种必然。然而 ,我国现行证券立法的缺憾之一就是缺乏对上市公司收购中一致行动的明确规定。宝延风波表明对一致行动进行规制已成为现实的需求。为了保障投资者利益 ,维护证券市场秩序 ,我们必须建立规制一致行动的法律制度。     

试论在共建共享和谐社会中工会组织的四个作用

构建社会主义和谐社会是艰巨复杂的系统工程,工会组织作为党领导下的群众组织,在共同建设、共同享有和谐社会中具有不可替代的重要作用。组织群众是工会工作的基础,引导群众是工会工作的关键,服务群众是工会工作的核心,维护群众合法权益是工会工作的基本职责。     

Symphony Concert Demand: Does Programming Matter?

We examine factors that determine attendance for major U.S. symphony orchestras over seven seasons. We find that performing more of the standard repertoire increases attendance but the choice of a composition that has a particular solo instrument does not affect attendance. Other management options that increase attendance include spending on advertising and broadcasting concerts. Own-price elasticity of demand and income elasticity are inelastic.     

组织框架下表决权拘束协议的体系规制

凡是以股东表决权行使为标的的债权协议均为表决权拘束协议,其在实践应用中具有不同的形态与功能。对表决权拘束协议进行规制,不仅需要将其从不同合同类型中识别出来,更要厘清不同形态背后差异化的规制目的与法律对策。合同法、公司法、证券法共同构建了规制体系,三者各有侧重:合同法提供了概念与规则基础;公司法进行了组织价值与规则的填充;证券法通过其合并规则应对义务的规避,解决形式与实质的不一致问题。三者不可偏废:合同层面的纠纷解决不能脱离组织的特殊性而抽象地适用合同法规范;证券特别规制的妥当适用,也无法脱离其合同法与公司法的规范与概念基础。     

论工会组织推动实现共建共享和谐社会的作用

充分发挥“四个作用”,推动职工群众共建共享和谐社会,应当成为工会组织和工会干部的职业观念和职业精神。发挥“四个作用”,推动实现共建共享,必须科学谋划工会工作,努力创新工会工作,不断提高工作成效。落实好这个任务,要切实加强自身建设,全面提高各级工会干部的履职素质和能力。     

双重协调:中国的周边安全战略构建

自习近平同志担任中共中央总书记以来,中国对周边外交更加重视,推出了一系列周边外交新理念和新举措。不过如何更好地开展周边外交也日益面临着周边安全的掣肘,对于周边安全环境的评价也存在大量争议,这就使得建立周边安全的评价体系和构建整体性的周边安全战略很有必要。由于中国崛起的周边安全效应、全球战略重心东移亚太的地缘效应和周边国家转型的系统效应,中国的周边地区安全已变得日益重要。周边安全合作面临着大国权力竞争、制度竞争和观念竞争等主要障碍,中国在周边安全中应该发挥重要作用。从国家利益层次分析的视角,可以对中国周边地区存在的纷繁复杂的安全问题进行梳理,区分为核心利益、重要利益和一般利益三个层次,使得对于中国面临的诸多周边安全问题有着更为整体性的清晰认知,进而提出了“双重协调”的周边安全战略。针对涉及不同利益层次的周边安全问题,中国可以采用“大国协调”和“制度协调”并进的思路,单一或综合运用政治、经济、军事和社会等手段,最终推动中国周边地区形成较低程度的周边安全共同体。