Re-emergence of Asia and the Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economy in Super Long Waves of Capitalist World Systems

ABSTRACT

After the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, we are facing the beginning of the end of the post-war capitalist world system. The 1920s was in the middle of the social, political and economic interregnum, a period of discontinuity in the social order, accompanied by widespread unrest, wars and power vacuums. In this article, that framework of the long and super long waves in the capitalist world systems is used to examine the recent interregnum that marks the re-emergence of Asia. Within the framework of the long and super long waves a new “flying geese” theory is built by incorporating the theory of dynamic industries with Akamatsu’s theory. In the 1980s, Japanese integral production architecture improved quality and productivity in the automobile and electrical machinery industries. In the 1990s, the USA’s open modular production architecture enabled China’s compressed industrialisation, and the China-centric Asian production network replaced the Japan-led Pacific Rim triangular trade regime. In the 2000s, the knowledge-and technology-intensive (KTI) industries have established themselves as the new dynamic industries. The USA is the leading country to develop KTI industries. China is catching up quickly and has leapfrogged Japan in KTI industries. In conclusion, it is argued that these changes mark an approaching second interregnum.     

The Four Horsemen of Terrorism: It's Not Waves,It's Strains

David Rapoport's concept of Four Waves of terrorism, from Anarchist terrorism in the 1880s, through Nationalist and Marxist waves in the early and mid-twentieth century, to the present Religious Wave, is one of the most influential concepts in terrorism studies. However, this article argues that thinking about different types of terrorism as strains rather than waves better reflects both the empirical reality and the idea that terrorists learn from and emulate each other. Whereas the notion of waves suggests distinct iterations of terrorist violence driven by successive broad historical trends, the concept of strains and contagion emphasizes how terrorist groups draw on both contemporary and historical lessons in the development of their tactics, strategies, and goals. The authors identify four distinct strains in total—Socialist, Nationalist, Religious, and Exclusionist—and contend that it is possible to trace each strain back to a “patient zero” active in the 1850s.     

A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?

Less than 30 years after Fukuyama and others declared liberal democracy’s eternal dominance, a third wave of autocratization is manifest. Gradual declines of democratic regime attributes characterize contemporary autocratization. Yet, we lack the appropriate conceptual and empirical tools to diagnose and compare such elusive processes. Addressing that gap, this article provides the first comprehensive empirical overview of all autocratization episodes from 1900 to today based on data from the Varieties of Democracy Project (V-Dem). We demonstrate that a third wave of autocratization is indeed unfolding. It mainly affects democracies with gradual setbacks under a legal façade. While this is a cause for concern, the historical perspective presented in this article shows that panic is not warranted: the current declines are relatively mild and the global share of democratic countries remains close to its all-time high. As it was premature to announce the “end of history” in 1992, it is premature to proclaim the “end of democracy” now.     

Terrorism,war and the economy of scale: an interview with Ted Goodnight

Apart from the great debates on the definition of terrorism or its causes, the discussion about whether ‘new terrorism’ can really be considered new or not has become one of the central disagreements in terrorism research. This article will respond to the criticism voiced by some of the proponents of the ‘new terrorism’ idea and reflect on the merits of their arguments. It will emphasis the importance of words and the implication of small predicates such as ‘new’ for the construction of terrorism and our reaction to it.     

Expanding coupled shock fronts of urban decay and criminal behavior: How U.S. cities are becoming “hollowed out”

This work attempts to formalize an emerging paradigm in criminology, examining the structural consequences of feedback between community physical decay and behavioral pathologies caused by the social disintegration resulting from that decay. Adaptation of a standard reaction/diffusion approach produces a model of radially expanding coupled traveling-wave shock fronts of interrelated contagious physical decay and criminal activity. The standard threshold theorem associated with the model equations suggests that currently advocated triage policies, which recommend the virtual abandonment of bad communities behind the expanding front, will fail spectacularly. The model suggests that, just as the hollowing-out process has a complex, synergistic and dynamic structure, so, too, must interventions be interactive and mutually reinforcing, adaptively, targeted at communities in all stages of the phenomenon.     

广西前两次大开放浪潮经验启示及对掀起第三次大开放浪潮的对策建议

广西最大的优势是区位,最根本的出路是开放。改革开放以来,广西经历了两次大开放浪潮,特别是近10年来以举办中国—东盟博览会为契机开启的第二次大开放浪潮创造了三大奇迹:一是中央战略地方化,二是地方战略中央化,三是区际开放国际化,以大开放大合作促进大发展,使区情发生了重大变化。当前,广西的对外开放正站在一个新的历史起点上,即将迎来第三次大开放浪潮。本文对广西前两次大开放浪潮进行回顾总结,实录演变历程,浓缩经验精华,提出广西应不失时机地实施以开放为主导的跨越式发展战略等对策建议,供掀起第三次大开放浪潮决策参考。     

Analysis of ethnic origin asymmetries in uniparental lineages in Argentinian population

With the aim to study Argentinian ethnic structure and its miscegenation, we analyzed the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and Y-chromosome Short Tandem Repeats (Y-STR) of 1580 blood samples from male donors. Our results showed that the population has a greater presence of Native American lineages on the maternal side (68.73 %) regarding the paternal line (4.18 %), alongside a majority of Eurasian origins in the paternal line (92.47 %). From the independence analysis, a significant difference was observed when compared with that expected by random crossings. The results are in agreement with a model where the miscegenation of native women with European men prevails, which has been widely observed in Argentine’s migratory currents and population history.     

Terrorism and the European community: Towards 1992

This article uses ITERATE data on international terrorism 1968–2004 to test Rapoport's wave-like behavior of modern terrorism. While the interpretation encompasses a much longer period of time than can be tested empirically with readily available data, it is possible to examine the past 3–4 decades of terrorist activity for traces of the coming and going of old and new groups. The article codes the type of group (anarchists, nationalists, leftists/Marxists, and religious fundamentalists) and then examines the type of tactics employed, deaths, and targets across time. The results confirm the presence of heterogeneous, wave-like behavior that conforms to the Rapoport interpretation as new and old groups/tactics/issues cycle in and out of activity.     

A Fifth Wave of Terrorism? The Emergence of Terrorist Semi-States

ABSTRACT

Drawing on Rapoport’s four waves thesis, this study asks whether the emergence of terrorist semi-states (TSS) in the 21st-century MENA region and Pakistan mean that we are seeing the beginning of a new (fifth) wave. We define a TSS as a rebel group that a) has control over portions of a weak state’s territory, maintaining governance there; b) but still launches terrorist attacks against third-party states. To be considered a fifth wave, the new terrorism phenomenon at hand must both fit Rapoport’s criteria of a wave (be global, have the same driving force) and also be significantly different from the prior wave. Clearly, the TSSs are different from the religious terror groups of the fourth wave in key respects: they prioritize territorial control, they engage in a much wider array of governance activities (not just social services), most of their victims have been members of the same religion—namely, Muslims (which suggests that they are driven more by the pursuit of power than by Jihad); and finally, their behavior (though not their statements) shows they have a local rather than a universal agenda. The main counter-argument is that TSSs are all Islamic and have so far not been exported globally.